“Remembering the lewd chatter around the dinner table every night, I felt for the first time that the system I had long considered sacred was in fact unbearably absurd.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“My experience with the study outline taught me that the ideas the party sanctimoniously promoted were in fact self-serving tools used to deceive the Chinese people.

I soon learned that they were also a way of making money.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“CCP had >3.6 million grassroots organizations, each of which was expected to buy a copy of a new publication. If the book was priced at ten yuan per copy, that meant a minimum of 36 million yuan in sales revenue—equivalent to more than $5 million today.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“Since that money was coming from the budgets of the party branches, the scheme was essentially an exercise in forcing 1 public entity to transfer money to another...W/ nearly every unit inventing new ways to make money, venality has permeated the regime.”
foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“I came to the pessimistic conclusion that the CCP was unlikely to reform politically. …

The CCP, having come to power in 1949 through violence, was deeply wedded to the idea that it had earned a permanent monopoly on political power.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“The party’s record, particularly its crackdown on the #TiananmenSquare protests, demonstrated that it would not give up that monopoly peacefully. & none of the post-Deng leaders had the courage to push for political reform; they simply wanted to pass the buck to future leaders.”
“To me, the discontent showed that it was becoming harder for China to develop its economy without liberalizing its politics.

Hu thought otherwise.

‘Don’t muck up things,’ he said in 2008….”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“So China, under [Hu Jintao’s] watch, entered a period of political stagnation, a decline similar to what the Soviet Union experienced under Leonid Brezhnev.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“The highly oppressive version of Marxism promoted by the CCP owed more to Stalin than to Marx himself.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“China’s long-standing problems of corruption, excessive debt, and unprofitable state enterprises are rooted in party officials’ power to meddle in economic decisions without public supervision.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“Trying to liberalize the economy while tightening political control was a contradiction.

Yet Xi was launching the biggest ideological campaign since Mao’s death to revive Maoist rule.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“Although most of my article simply quoted the party’s constitution and code of conduct, the Central Party School’s disciplinary committee accused me of serious errors.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“I was indignant at my treatment, even though I understood that others had been dealt with even more harshly.

If the CCP’s officials are capable of such despicable actions, how can the party be trusted?”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“At the end of each conversation, my interrogators demanded I keep it a secret.

It was all part of an underworld that couldn’t be exposed to the light of day.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“I asked myself, If the CCP’s officials are capable of such despicable actions, how can the party be trusted?

Most of all, I wondered how I could remain part of this system.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“After 20 years of hesitation, confusion, and misery, I made the decision to emerge from the darkness and make a complete break with the party.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
#Xi’s #GreatLeapBackward soon left me with no other choice.

In 2018, Xi abolished presidential term limits, raising the prospect that I would have to live indefinitely under neo-Stalinist rule.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“I was disgusted by #Xi’s mishandling of the [#Coronavirus] outbreak and signed a petition supporting #LiWenliang, the #Wuhan ophthalmologist who had been harassed by police for warning his friends about the new disease and eventually died of it.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china…
“Officials [@ Prof.#CaiXia's fmr employer, the #CentralPartySchool] avoided answering the question & instead made vague threats against my daughter in #China & her young son.

It was at this point that I accepted the truth: there was no going back.”

foreignaffairs.com/articles/china… #蔡霞

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More from @AndrewSErickson

16 Nov
My interview w/ @GrecianFormula:

With its continued dev't of #ASBMs & associated targeting architecture, #China continues to work on changing the game in #SCS & beyond—but so too does US w/ its own developments & countermeasures.

bit.ly/DF-26-B

19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas…
The game is afoot, and much is at stake.

But by no means is the game over for @USNavy, in the #SouthChinaSea or anywhere else.

bit.ly/DF-26-B

My #BottomLine: there’s no cause for declinist defeatism.

19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas…
In @Princeton @PUPolitics's PhD program, I had many great colleagues, incl. @ChongJaIan; w/ @osmastro & @AdamPLiff to follow!

I focused my research on #Chinese #Aerospace Development. Historical summary: andrewerickson.com/2014/09/chinas…

#BottomLine: PRC prioritized #ballistic #missiles.
Read 16 tweets
12 Nov
Honored to offer #PolicyRecommendations w/ Gabe Collins @RiceUniversity @BakerInstitute

#HoldTheLine through 2035:

A #Strategy to Offset #China’s Revisionist Actions & Sustain a Rules-Based Order in the #AsiaPacific

bit.ly/HoldTheLINE

#USA #PRC

andrewerickson.com/2020/11/hold-t…
Between now & 2035, imposing costs on strategically unacceptable PRC actions + pursuing defense diplomacy offers a sustainable path to influence PRC behavior & position #IndoAsiaPacific for continued prosperity & growth under a #RulesBased regional system.
bakerinstitute.org/media/files/fi…
The United States should resist yielding strategic principles & position to a People’s Republic of China (#PRC) that is facing increasing constraints on its economic potential, national power growth, & prioritization of competition over citizens’ welfare.

bakerinstitute.org/research/hold-…
Read 11 tweets
9 Nov
“A # of the leading #Covid19 #vaccines under development will need to be kept at temperatures as low as minus 80 degrees Celsius (minus 112 degrees Fahrenheit) from the moment they are bottled to the time they are ready to be injected into patients’ arms.” nytimes.com/2020/09/18/bus…
“Companies may have to transport tiny glass vials thousands of miles while keeping them as cold as the South Pole in the depths of winter.” nytimes.com/2020/09/18/bus… #Coronavirus #Vaccine #ColdChain #CoolChain #CoolCargo #SupplyChain #SupplyChains #Logistics en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_chain
“That will not be easy. Vaccines may be manufactured on one continent & shipped to another. They will go from logistics hub to logistics hub before ending up at the hospitals & other facilities that will administer them.” nytimes.com/2020/09/18/bus… #ColdChain en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_chain
Read 5 tweets
2 Nov
“even many of its supporters have been frustrated by the [World Health] organization’s secrecy, its public praise for China and its quiet concessions. Those decisions have indirectly helped Beijing to whitewash its early failures in handling the outbreak.” nytimes.com/2020/11/02/wor…
.@WHO “pushed misleading and contradictory information about the risk of [#coronavirus] spread from symptomless carriers. ... Top health officials encouraged travel as usual, advice that was based on politics and economics, not science.“ nytimes.com/2020/11/02/wor…
“That was wrong. China’s surveillance system had failed to spot the outbreak, a failure that experts now say allowed its spread to accelerate. Asked to explain the discrepancy, the @WHO referred questions to #China.“ nytimes.com/2020/11/02/wor…
Read 6 tweets
13 Jul
#FullText of Press Statement by @SecPompeo @StateDept, “U.S. Position on #Maritime Claims in the #SouthChinaSea,” 13 July 2020:

bit.ly/SecPompeoSCS

"The United States champions a free & open Indo-Pacific. ..."

andrewerickson.com/2020/07/secret…

(Maps from @NavalInstitute @USNIBooks)
"Today we are strengthening U.S. policy in a vital, contentious part of that region — the #SouthChinaSea. We are making clear: #Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them."
"In the #SouthChinaSea, we seek to preserve peace and stability, uphold #freedom of the #seas in a manner consistent with international #law, maintain the unimpeded flow of #commerce, and oppose any attempt to use coercion or force to settle disputes."

bit.ly/SecPompeoSCS
Read 19 tweets
30 Jun
JUST IN—

“Policy Options to Impose Costs on #Beijing’s Coercive Envelopment of #HongKong: Version 1.0”

bit.ly/HongKONG

#NatSecLaw negates #SAR’s judiciary & freedoms

Our #ChinaSignPost™ 洞察中国 report (#102) offers analysis & recommendations

andrewerickson.com/2020/06/china-…
#HongKong’s long-deteriorating situation has come to a head.

Today, just b/f #July1, Beijing imposed a popularly-opposed #NationalSecurityLaw negating the Special Autonomous Region’s judiciary & freedoms.

andrewerickson.com/2020/06/china-…

Dissidents are vulnerable; everyone is at risk.
#Beijing has abruptly abandoned binding commitments & reassurances, which underwrote #HongKong’s handover from Britain in 1997, & its subsequent special treatment by the United States & other nations.

Now, sadly, Hong Kong’s identity & status lies damaged & altered irrevocably.
Read 11 tweets

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