Thread by @AndrewSErickson

JUST IN—

“Policy Options to Impose Costs on #Beijing’s Coercive Envelopment of #HongKong: Version 1.0”

bit.ly/HongKONG

#NatSecLaw negates #SAR’s judiciary & freedoms

Our #ChinaSignPost™ 洞察中国 report (#102) offers analysis & recommendations

andrewerickson.com/2020/06/china-…

#HongKong’s long-deteriorating situation has come to a head.

Today, just b/f #July1, Beijing imposed a popularly-opposed #NationalSecurityLaw negating the Special Autonomous Region’s judiciary & freedoms.

andrewerickson.com/2020/06/china-…

Dissidents are vulnerable; everyone is at risk.

#Beijing has abruptly abandoned binding commitments & reassurances, which underwrote #HongKong’s handover from Britain in 1997, & its subsequent special treatment by the United States & other nations.

Now, sadly, Hong Kong’s identity & status lies damaged & altered irrevocably.

Key ?s: how bad things will get in #HongKong & what to do in response.

My policy report w/ Gabe Collins @BakerInstitute @RiceUniversity offers analysis & options for American decision-makers to address these challenging dynamics.

bit.ly/HongKONG

andrewerickson.com/2020/06/china-…

Here are >15 calibrated response options to:

1) Impose costs on Beijing’s #CoerciveEnvelopment of #HongKong

2) Undermine PRC ability to exploit “white glove” (白手套) loophole for economic power projection & influence ops

(3) Signal resolve to US allies + partners like #Taiwan

Key #Recs:

1) Create safe havens to welcome #HongKongers fleeing political persecution & other repression as #Beijing clamps down in #HongKong.

2) Prohibit #export of to #PRC/#HK of #semiconductor manufacturing equipment & support services, + other core dual-use technologies.

3) Amend Section 241 & other relevant portions of the Countering America’s Adversaries w/ Sanctions (#CAATSA) law.

Can leverage an effective existing set of options for calibrated, targeted measures vs selected #PRC Mainland & #HongKong entities/persons.

bit.ly/HongKONG

4) Intensify #FONOPs, etc. vs. illegal PRC maritime claims & land reclamation activities in the #SouthChinaSea & #EastChinaSea.

5) Review & enhance finely-calibrated & targeted aspects of the US diplomatic, economic & security relationships with #Taiwan.

bit.ly/HongKONG

#China’s First Ring of Coercive Envelopment

#HongKong, #Macau & #Taiwan are all maritime, but only TW has a sea-moat protecting it from the PRC

Blue lines = numerous submarine telecomms cables connecting these economies as key conduits to world.

(#Map by Andrew Rhodes, 2020)

The PRC’s “#GreaterBayArea” (粤港澳大湾区) bayarea.gov.hk/en/home/index.…

Suffocating & Subsuming #HongKong within a Constellation of Mainland Cities

(Map by Andrew Rhodes, 2020)

READ REPORT #FULLTEXT HERE:

bit.ly/HongKONG

chinasignpost.com/wp-content/upl…

This figure shows dramatic increases in foreign currency deposits held in #Singapore, coinciding with unrest & prospect of greater Mainland involvement in #HongKong.

Read our full #China #SignPost™ (洞察中国) report (#102) here:

bit.ly/HongKONG

andrewerickson.com/2020/06/china-…