Thread by @AndrewSErickson

My interview w/ @GrecianFormula:

With its continued dev't of #ASBMs & associated targeting architecture, #China continues to work on changing the game in #SCS & beyond—but so too does US w/ its own developments & countermeasures.

bit.ly/DF-26-B

19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas…

The game is afoot, and much is at stake.

But by no means is the game over for @USNavy, in the #SouthChinaSea or anywhere else.

bit.ly/DF-26-B

My #BottomLine: there’s no cause for declinist defeatism.

19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas…

In @Princeton @PUPolitics's PhD program, I had many great colleagues, incl. @ChongJaIan; w/ @osmastro & @AdamPLiff to follow!

I focused my research on #Chinese #Aerospace Development. Historical summary: andrewerickson.com/2014/09/chinas…

#BottomLine: PRC prioritized #ballistic #missiles.

My #1 #GradSchool read:

In 1972 Vice Premier Zhang Chunqiao told #China’s Central #Military Commission:

“We are continentalists. Now guided missiles are well developed. Installed on shore, they can hit any target & there is no need to build a big navy.”

amazon.com/Chinas-Strateg…

In March 2007, I testified b/f @USCC_GOV: “China is…thought to be in the process of developing anti-ship homing warheads for its ballistic missiles, which is a very worrisome development…If they work, they would be extremely difficult to defend against.” andrewerickson.com/wp-content/upl…

Several yrs of intense #OpenSource #research culminated in my 2013 book, #Chinese #AntiShip #Ballistic #Missile (#ASBM) Development: Drivers, Trajectories & Strategic Implications.

jamestown.org/program/how-ch…

andrewerickson.com/2013/05/chines…

amazon.com/Chinese-Anti-S…

andrewerickson.com/wp-content/upl…

Still, in @DeptofDefense's 2020 #China report, this hit me: “The PLA has fielded approximately 200 IRBM launchers & >200 missiles.” Single most important sentence in best-written report to Congress yet in the 20 yrs the Pentagon's been issuing them, IMHO.

nationalinterest.org/feature/breaki…

Reported ranges for systems currently in #PLARF inventory suggest that these 200 #IRBMs are #DF26s, incl. some # of the #DF26B #ASBM variant.

DF-26’s dominance of China’s arsenal w/in that set of op-important range parameters suggests great confidence in this particular missile.

Two strong indicators of great #PRC confidence in #DF26 #IRBM:

(1) extraordinarily fast production & deployment in high numbers of a modern weapon system, &

(2) no apparent need to hedge with multiple missile types with broadly overlapping capabilities.

19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas…

With its recent ASBM tests, reportedly vs moving targets, PRC seeks to demonstrate a maturing capability & enhance deterrence.

It seeks to overawe audiences limited in access to technical details & limited in understanding of basic technical principles.

scmp.com/news/china/mil…

#PRC #ASBM's are a reality. #PLARF's already a force to be reckoned w/: wsj.com/articles/BL-CJ….

But, ON TOP OF THAT, Beijing seeks deference it hasn't earned operationally.

#BottomLine: However sophisticated & successful, recent tests = but 1 element in a far greater equation.

#ASBMs' effectiveness in practice hinges on comprehensive recon-#targeting architecture.

As last 4 #Zhuhai #Airshows I attended showed me, #China's clearly working diligently to develop such.

Remains a work in progress that hasn't been validated concretely in critical respects.

Moreover, growing US #countermeasures make this at least a 2-sided contest.

@USNavy's taken this threat very seriously; both in terms of hard kill & soft kill systems.

There's certainly more work to be done, but America is pacing the threat with manifold potent countermeasures.

Soviet Chief of the General Staff Nikolai #Ogarkov termed this struggle of opposites the “dialectic of negation in military affairs.” In American parlance, “The enemy gets a vote.” American military “votes” thus far include #Aegis #BallisticMissile #Defense, #StandardMissile-6...

... & #Electronic #Warfare systems w/ the potential to confuse incoming #ASBMs w/ #false #targets that—proportionately speaking—could already far exceed the 355+ #ship force that @USNavy is planning to build.

As well it should—but that's another topic...

19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas…

Work with @GrecianFormula @CFTNI & you can engage a nice broad audience!

Excited to see my #interview on #China's recent #DF21D & #DF26B #ASBM tests + @USNavy/@DeptofDefense countermeasures @RCDefense & @RealClearNews!

Check out original @19_forty_five:

19fortyfive.com/2020/11/chinas…