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Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
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12 Nov, 11 tweets, 16 min read
Honored to offer #PolicyRecommendations w/ Gabe Collins @RiceUniversity @BakerInstitute—

#HoldTheLine through 2035:

A #Strategy to Offset #China’s Revisionist Actions & Sustain a Rules-Based Order in the #AsiaPacific

bit.ly/HoldTheLINE

#USA #PRC

andrewerickson.com/2020/11/hold-t…
Between now & 2035, imposing costs on strategically unacceptable PRC actions + pursuing defense diplomacy offers a sustainable path to influence PRC behavior & position #IndoAsiaPacific for continued prosperity & growth under a #RulesBased regional system.
bakerinstitute.org/media/files/fi…
The United States should resist yielding strategic principles & position to a People’s Republic of China (#PRC) that is facing increasing constraints on its economic potential, national power growth, & prioritization of competition over citizens’ welfare.

bakerinstitute.org/research/hold-…
The United States should accept greater strategic risk to “#HoldTheLine” against #PRC revanchism in the #AsiaPacific through #Beijing’s key national planning milestone of 2035.

bit.ly/HoldTheLINE

andrewerickson.com/2020/11/hold-t…
Empirical data & emerging structural trends suggest that by 2035, #demographic decline, debt overload, & societal expectations will likely substantially curtail #PRC power growth relative to currently expected levels.

#Beijing’s present hubristic outlook would likely be reduced.
During the 2020s, Beijing may reach the zenith of its ability to mobilize resources for repression at home & abroad.

2035 represents the likely closing of a #WindowOfVulnerability with heightened risk of conflict between the PRC, regional neighbors & US.

bakerinstitute.org/media/files/fi…
#HoldingTheLine is not a passive policy.

Requires sustained proactive enforcement actions to disincentivize #PRC assaults on rules-based #AsiaPacific order.

PRC probing behavior & provocations must be met with a range of symmetric & #asymmetric responses that impose real costs.
US policymakers must understand that under #Xi’s strongman rule, personal political survival will dictate #PRC behavior.

Washington must prepare the American electorate + allies & partners abroad for likelihood that tensions will periodically ratchet up to uncomfortable levels.
American #policymakers must also make clear to their counterparts in #China that the #engagement-above-all #policies that dominated much of the past 25 years are over & that the risks & costs of ongoing—& future—adventurism will fall heaviest on the #PRC.

bakerinstitute.org/research/hold-…
To reduce #PRC leverage, #government at all levels in the United States should take steps to de-link #SupplyChains for critical #defense & #medical goods from the PRC & PRC-domiciled entities as quickly as possible.

bakerinstitute.org/media/files/fi…
#Strategy of #HoldingTheLine through 2035 leaves open a pathway to more fully integrate #China into #RulesBased regional system if & when #Beijing steps back from #CCP’s present emphasis on #aggressive #nationalism & regional #revisionism.

bakerinstitute.org/media/files/fi…

#TimeWillTell

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More from @AndrewSErickson

Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
9 Nov
“A # of the leading #Covid19 #vaccines under development will need to be kept at temperatures as low as minus 80 degrees Celsius (minus 112 degrees Fahrenheit) from the moment they are bottled to the time they are ready to be injected into patients’ arms.” nytimes.com/2020/09/18/bus…
“Companies may have to transport tiny glass vials thousands of miles while keeping them as cold as the South Pole in the depths of winter.” nytimes.com/2020/09/18/bus… #Coronavirus #Vaccine #ColdChain #CoolChain #CoolCargo #SupplyChain #SupplyChains #Logistics en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_chain
“That will not be easy. Vaccines may be manufactured on one continent & shipped to another. They will go from logistics hub to logistics hub before ending up at the hospitals & other facilities that will administer them.” nytimes.com/2020/09/18/bus… #ColdChain en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_chain
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Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
2 Nov
“even many of its supporters have been frustrated by the [World Health] organization’s secrecy, its public praise for China and its quiet concessions. Those decisions have indirectly helped Beijing to whitewash its early failures in handling the outbreak.” nytimes.com/2020/11/02/wor…
.@WHO “pushed misleading and contradictory information about the risk of [#coronavirus] spread from symptomless carriers. ... Top health officials encouraged travel as usual, advice that was based on politics and economics, not science.“ nytimes.com/2020/11/02/wor…
“That was wrong. China’s surveillance system had failed to spot the outbreak, a failure that experts now say allowed its spread to accelerate. Asked to explain the discrepancy, the @WHO referred questions to #China.“ nytimes.com/2020/11/02/wor…
Read 6 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
13 Jul
#FullText of Press Statement by @SecPompeo @StateDept, “U.S. Position on #Maritime Claims in the #SouthChinaSea,” 13 July 2020:

bit.ly/SecPompeoSCS

"The United States champions a free & open Indo-Pacific. ..."

andrewerickson.com/2020/07/secret…

(Maps from @NavalInstitute @USNIBooks)
"Today we are strengthening U.S. policy in a vital, contentious part of that region — the #SouthChinaSea. We are making clear: #Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them."
"In the #SouthChinaSea, we seek to preserve peace and stability, uphold #freedom of the #seas in a manner consistent with international #law, maintain the unimpeded flow of #commerce, and oppose any attempt to use coercion or force to settle disputes."

bit.ly/SecPompeoSCS
Read 19 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
30 Jun
JUST IN—

“Policy Options to Impose Costs on #Beijing’s Coercive Envelopment of #HongKong: Version 1.0”

bit.ly/HongKONG

#NatSecLaw negates #SAR’s judiciary & freedoms

Our #ChinaSignPost™ 洞察中国 report (#102) offers analysis & recommendations

andrewerickson.com/2020/06/china-…
#HongKong’s long-deteriorating situation has come to a head.

Today, just b/f #July1, Beijing imposed a popularly-opposed #NationalSecurityLaw negating the Special Autonomous Region’s judiciary & freedoms.

andrewerickson.com/2020/06/china-…

Dissidents are vulnerable; everyone is at risk.
#Beijing has abruptly abandoned binding commitments & reassurances, which underwrote #HongKong’s handover from Britain in 1997, & its subsequent special treatment by the United States & other nations.

Now, sadly, Hong Kong’s identity & status lies damaged & altered irrevocably.
Read 11 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
16 Jun
"Prelim. reports..indicated..the [#Indian] soldiers had not been shot, but had been killed in a brawl involving rocks & wooden clubs that was similar to fights that broke out last month along the border & seriously injured several soldiers on both sides."

nytimes.com/2020/06/16/wor…
"A senior #Indian #Army officer said that >20 Indian #soldiers had also been #captured & many might still be in #Chinese custody.

nytimes.com/2020/06/16/wor…

India seemed caught off guard by the new burst of violence, which the 2 sides blamed on each other."

#Ladakh
#GalwanValley
"The spark for the recent tensions seemed to have been a road to a remote #AirForce #base that the #Indian #Army is building through mountain passes in the #GalwanValley >14,000 feet above sea level"
nytimes.com/2020/06/16/wor…

#India
#China
#border
#tension
#incident
#clash
#Ladakh
Read 8 tweets
Andrew Erickson 艾立信 Profile picture
16 Jun
"20 Indian soldiers dead after clash w Chinese troops high in the Himalayas, Indian army says washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pac…
The conflict is the 1st deadly encounter between Indian & Chinese forces in 45 years & marks a severe escalation in tensions betw/ the 2 nuclear-armed neighbors."
"The deaths occurred in the mountainous region of #Ladakh where #India & #China share a disputed...#border. No Indian soldiers have been killed in clashes on the frontier between the 2 countries since 1975, experts say, & no casualties of this magnitude have occurred since 1967."
"#India at first said that 3 #soldiers had died in a 'violent faceoff' that caused '#casualties on both sides.'

Later Tuesday, the #Indian #Army said in a statement that 17 more Indian #troops who were 'critically injured in the line of duty' had “succumbed to their injuries.'"
Read 9 tweets

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