Thread by @KA_Nicholas

.@theAGU hosts a massive conference of Earth and space scientists every December, usually in San Francisco (photos below from previous years). My 1st meeting was in 2003 as a masters' student. In this #thread I'll share highlights from #AGU20, my first time attending virtually!

#Agriculture (esp replacing forests with cropland) has been changing the #climate for 6,000+ years. Ancient warming made Europe + East Asia more suitable for cultivation, lengthened Eur. growing season, find @Chris_Kucharik @NRamankutty et al. #AGU20
…20fallmeeting-agu.ipostersessions.com/?s=9B-D8-01-CF…

Something cool I discovered this year at #AGU20 (thanks to @KateBrauman) is the MacGyver session, w/ hacks including a test for #COVID19 in wastewater & a system to lure vineyard pests away with mating calls instead of harmful sprays. agu.confex.com/agu/fm20/meeti…

Great talk about using #nature to fix #climate (negative emissions) by @connornolan #AGU20:
-avoided #deforestation is key for conservation- but doesn't take up *additional* carbon.
-natural climate solutions "at risk from the problem they're trying to solve" (warming) (1/n)

@connornolan #AGU20 2/n:
California estimates nature can do 20% of the #carbon work needed- no getting around eliminating fossil fuels! (climateworks.org/programs/carbo…)

@connornolan #AGU20 3/n:
Helpful concept of natural climate solutions: are they replacing historical carbon lost from ecosystems ("silo") or providing substantial additional carbon storage ("haystack")? (If silo, natural land uptake may have already done most of the work...)

@connornolan #AGU20 4/n:
Of 42 estimates of negative emissions from natural climate solutions, only the most bullish are in the range needed for 1.5°C. Papers that recognize only tropical reforestation helps cool temps, + included carbon price, estimated lower uptake potential.

Land tenure, finance, measurement of carbon uptake esp in soils are key challenges for implementing natural climate solutions at scale.
@connornolan #AGU20 5/n:

@connornolan #AGU20 6/n: nice summary of tradeoffs and constraints between different natural climate solutions.

Study (nature.com/articles/s4155…) found considering "constraints" (reality on the ground), only 0.3-18% of estimated carbon uptake from ecosystems could be realized. :(

Clear potential for land biosphere to remove atmospheric carbon, but "the first billion tons are more difficult and slower than assumed, and the ultimate total is likely less than we need," likely 100-200 Gt CO2 concludes @connornolan #AGU20 7/7( (w/ @chrfield @katharine_mach)

This 12 minute talk by @connornolan on why nature is important and helpful but won't save us from #climatechange is well worth a watch! #AGU20 agu.confex.com/agu/fm20/meeti…

(spoiler alert, to stabilize #climate we have to stop burning #fossilfuels)

One key purpose of climate stabilization is to "not interfere with food production." @RobertFofrich shows key crops (farms) will have to move to keep up with climate; more warming = more disruption; worse in tropics. Up to 46% of global wheat. :(
agu.confex.com/agu/fm20/meeti…
#AGU20

I'm so concerned to see how uncritically #geoengineering has become normalized @theAGU #AGU20.
@AlanRobock proposal to maximize crop calories at whatever temperature breaks #ParisAgreement. It's the same thinking that got us into the #climatecrisis.
agu.confex.com/agu/fm20/meeti…

Re: the dominance of the production paradigm in agriculture, see our 2019 study: sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

What makes people move after climate-related disasters? @_ninaberlin finds both push & pull factors at play; place attachment & previous experience of the threat make moving less likely.
28% of random US sample have felt 1+ week of wildfire smoke! #AGU20 agu.confex.com/agu/fm20/meeti…

"#sealevelrise is not a future problem for South Florida, it's here right now, accelerating, & will contribute to coastal community displacement... #climate migration is not uniform movement out of a high-risk area, climate gentrification is happening now" @thealmostphd #AGU20

#climate mobility framework: @thealmostphd mapping how vulnerability (resources to adapt) + climate risk interact. Actually migrants are likely to be high income to access gov't buyouts, be able to move. Those with less resources get displaced or trapped. #AGU20

The areas vulnerable to #sealevelrise in Miami-Dade are Black + Latino, shows @thealmostphd. They are the ones facing being trapped or displaced.
#AGU20

Powerful analysis by @thealmostphd:
Black population in Miami-Dade is slated to be disproportionately displaced by #sealevelrise;
Colombian population disproportionately trapped;
and white population disproportionately stable/able to migrate. #AGU20 agu.confex.com/agu/fm20/meeti…

@MurrayScown check out this study ⬆️ for your DICE work/collaboration?
@amywestervelt, @KendraWrites this is an important and infuriating story ⬆️

Do you want your politicians to speak more about #climate? Each email received made them 5% more likely to tweet about climate, but physical letters and phone calls are much more effective, finds @WynesSeth #AGU20.
agu.confex.com/agu/fm20/meeti…
ping @Bankfieldbecky @Fisher_DanaR