Total estimate of all relief provided in mini budgets = 27.1 lakh crore, ~13% of GDP...(Actual cash outgo is a lot less)
Quote: Rabindranath Tagore (WB elections in focus)
Analogy: Team India's success in Australia - Youth having abundant potential.
Lowest death rates of Covid.
Earlier contractions typical to India, this time, contraction is of a global nature. (Not our problem alone).
But we will still provide relief measures for the economy...
Vision for #AtmaNirbharBharat
- Ancient India: self reliant & epi-center of world
- We are part of G-20, BRICS; will be part of lot of groups as we keep rising.
- made 13 promises & materialized during Amrut Mahotsav.(🤔)
- Buzz words: Innovation, R&D, Min Govt, Max Governance.
FY22 Proposal on 6 pillars - Health & Well being, Inclusive Development, Human Capital, Innovation & R&D.
Health:
- Setup integrated public health units in 11 states
Rs.64,180 cr for Atmanirvhar Health Yojana over 6 yrs
- 17 new public health units; strengthen disease control
Jal Jeevan Mission: Outlay of 2.87 trillion over 5 yrs
Swach Bharat Mission: 1.41 lakh crore over 5 yrs
Scrapping policy: Voluntary, to phase out older vehicles, fitness tests
Covid vaccine provision: 35,000 cr.
2.23 lakh crore - Health Budget.
Mfg sector: Committed to 13 PLI schemes worth 1.97 lakh crore
Textiles: Mega investment textile park scheme to be launched; 7 such parks over 3 yrs
National infra pipeline has expanded to 7400 projects
A professional managed DFI for infrastructure financing. 20,000 cr equity.
Asset monetization: national monetization pipeline to be launched; a dashboard to track progress & provide visibility to investors
NHAI, PGCIL - sponsored 1 INvIT each; to transfer assets
Railways to monetize freight corridor assets; same with airports, coal infra assets.
FY22 Capital expenditure: 5.54 lakh cr (vs. 4.39 lakh cr); up 34.5%
To provide 2 lakh crore to states and autonomous bodies for Capex.
To complete 11,000kms of national corridor.
Allot corridors to West Bengal and Tamil Nadu (election focus) along with Assam, Kerala etc.
- Eastern and western corridors to be completed by Jun 2022
- 1.10 lakh cr for railways of which a large sum is for capex only
- 18,000 cr to augment bus transport service, to operate 20,000 buses
702 conventional metros are operational and rest under construction in 27 cities
100% electrification of broad gauge rail routes by 2023.
1.18 lakh cr to roads ministry
Power sector: Added 139GW of installed capacity, connected 2.9 cr households
Framework for consumers to choose more than 1 distribution Co.
Revamped power distribution scheme to be launched
3 lakh crore for power distribution scheme - Assist Discoms
7 ports to be offered on PPP mode; subsidy for Indian flag ships 1.5 lakh jobs to be generated from port work - ship recycling work
Ujwala scheme to be extended to cover 1 cr more beneficiaries; add 100 more districts.
Launch securities market code
Investor Financial Charter
1000 cr to Solar energy corporation of India
500 cr for IREDA
Amend insurance act: increase FDI limit to 74%, allow ownership with safeguards, 50% independent directors and board in Indian control.
Fintech hub in GIFT city
Recapitalization of 20,000 cr for PSBs
Deposit Insurance: ability to withdraw until the cover from stressed banks
ARC & AMC to be set up and take over bad debt
Raising levels to ease compliance for 2 lakh companies.
Definition of small cos raises from 50 lakh networth to 2 cr
NCLT framework to be strengthened for faster resolution; data analytics, machine learning (other IT buzz words) for compliance and execution.
Disinvestment: 10 Cos to be completed in FY22; IPO of LIC to be done.
Closure of sick or loss making CPSEs to be done; 1.75 lakh crore expected as disinvestment amount.
2 more PSBs and 1 Gen. Insurance Co. to be divested.
Agriculture:
To set up separate administrative structure for co-operatives
Govt offering MSP at at least 1.5X production cost
Amount paid to farmers at 75,000 crore vs. 52,000 crore
Wheat growing farmers benefitted quite a lot in last 1 yr
62,802 cr in FY20 vs. 33,874 cr In FY14
Increasing agri credit target to 16.5 lakh cr
Rural infra dev fund from 30,000 cr to 40,000 cr
Micro irrigation fund up 5,000 cr
22 perishable crops to be included in e-NAM; 1.68 cr farmers registered; 1000 more mandis to be integrated
5 major fishing harbors to be developed
32 States implementing One Nation, One Ration Card scheme
New Portal for gig workers for benefits to migrant workers
Implementation of labor codes soon
Min. wages to be applicable to all categories of labor
Women can work, with proper protection
Stand up India: Margin money ⬇️
Human Capital:
100 Sainik schools to be set up with NGO partnership
Central University in Leh, Ladakh
15,000 schools to be strengthened as per national education policy
Skilling: Enhance National Apprenticeship scheme, 3000 cr to be provided
UAE partnership to benchmark skills.
Ekalavya schools allocation at 40 cr vs 38 cr
50,000 cr on National Research Foundation in 5 yrs
Deep Ocean Mission outlay 4000 cr over 5 yrs.
1500 cr for financial incentives to promote digital payments
4 Indians to be trained for space mission (at Russia)
National Nursing and Midwife commission to be set up
A conciliation mechanism of contractual disputes
Upcoming census to be digital, allocating 3768 cr in 21-22
Goa getting 300 cr for celebration of liberation
3000 cr for welfare of women and (?) workers
Fiscal position:
FY21 fiscal deficit at 9.5% of GDP; Need 80,000 cr more needed from market; 12 lakh cr is gross borrowing
Revised expenditure target at 34.5 lakh cr
FY22: Estimate deficit at 6.8% of GDP; will continue on path of consolidation.
Will reach <4.8 by FY26
Will reach <4.5 by FY26
NSSF loans to FCI are discontinued;
FRBM path deviated due to Covid; amendment proposed
Revenue deficit grants of 72,340 cr of 17 states
Part B: to start.
New World Order post pandemic with India leading
Direct tax:
Return filers increased after corporate tax reduction
Senior citizens: reduce compliance burden for >75 yrs; only pension & interest income exempt from filing ITRs
Reduction in IT proceedings for reopening to 3 yrs
Dispute resolution committee set up; 1.10 lakh tax payers settled disputes of 85,000 cr.
A committee for small tax payers also to be setup
Faceless IT assessment done; National Faceless Appellate Tribunal to be set up.
Rules for removing double taxation
< 10 cr no tax audit.
Dividend Payment and estimation: Advance tax liability on dividend income shall arise only after declaration of payment of dividend; tax on dividend at lower rates for foreigners.
Relaxation in conditions relating to pvt funding, restriction on commercial activities.
Affordable housing & rental housing:
Extending eligibility of home loans for affordable housing to 31 Mar 2022.
Affordable housing projects to avail tax incentives.
Tax exemption for notified rental housing projects.
Tax holiday for capital gains of aircraft lease etc..
Compliance: pre-filled ITRs with details of capital gains, dividends, interest income etc frm now
Employer not to get deduction for late payment of PF.
Capital gains exemption for investment in start ups for 1 more yr.
(Nothing for Ind. tax payers I suppose, no thank u also).
GST: steps to smoothen further
Custom duty rationalization; removing 400 old exemptions & revised structure by 1 Oct 2021
Withdrawing exemptions on mobile mfg;
MSMEs hit by sharp rise in steel, so reducing customs duty to flat 7.5% and reducing duty on steel scrap. Revoking CVD
Cutting duty on copper scrap, naptha to 2.5%
Rationalizing customs duty on gold and silver
Raising duty on solar lanterns from 5% to 20%
Withdraw exemptions on tunnel boring m/cs, raising duty on certain auto parts
Increasing duty on steel screws and plastic ware & many things🙄
Proposing an agri infra development cess on some items
and some more increase in duties, rationalization etc..
There is strong recovery in economy
Covid cases, fatality rate easing
Stock market capitalization at record high
Forex reserves at $560 bn
Energy consumption see 12% growth in Oct
Note: Only English notes will be provided, no translation😎
GST collections good, Bank credit improves by 5.1%, FDI inflows see 13% rise.
RBI predicts the possibility of a strong recovery by Q3, 1 quarter ahead of expectations.
Moody's revises India GDP forecast for:
CY20 to -8.9% from -9.6% earlier.
CY21 to 8.6% from 8.1% earlier.
(1/n) A thread on Kirloskar Ferrous Industries Ltd.
Founded in 1991, #Kirloskar Ferrous Industries Ltd. (KFIL) is in the business of Pig Iron and Grey Iron casting industry, serving infrastructure & construction, automotive, agriculture, manufacturing, textiles & steel sectors.
(2/n) Kirloskar Group was established in 1888. Laxmanrao Kashinath Kirloskar (20 Jun 1869 – 26 Sep 1956) was the founder of the Kirloskar Grp & the township of Kirloskarwadi, amongst India’s first industrial townships.
(3/n) Starting with a small bicycle repair shop at Belgaum on Kirloskar road, he manufactured India’s first iron plough, first Kirloskar product & chaff-cutters.
Shantanurao Kirloskar, Laxmanrao’s eldest son moved to Pune to start a diesel engines Co - Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd.
(1/n) NSE Listed universe ownership trends:
- Total promoter ownership in NSE-listed #stocks⬆️by ~110bps (QoQ) to near 5 yr high of 50.9%
- FII ownership⬇️133bps (QoQ) to a 5 qtr low of 20.8% (highest sequential decline on a qtrly basis over last 19 yrs)
Src: NSE
(3/n)
Ownership trend across key stakeholders by TOTAL market cap over last 3 years &
Ownership trend across key stakeholders by FLOATING stock over last 3 years
#rbigovernor PC
- MPC voted in 5:1 ratio
- Repo rate reduced by 40bps from 4.4% to 4%
- Reverse repo rate cut to 3.35% from 3.75%
- Global economy headed into recession, with mfg PMI at 11 yr low
- Growth rate of EMs expected to be 2.6% to negative 6%.
- MPC maintaining accommodating stance till growth revives
- Prodn of most sectors declined rapidly, industrial production shrank by 17%
- Food grain prodn at record, normal monsoon expected
- Kharif sowing higher by 44%, Rabi procurement in full flow
- Farm incomes to improve;
- Merchandise exports plunged 60.3%, imports contracted by 58.6% (worst in many yrs) in Apr
- Reserves increased & at US$487 bn
- Inflation could increase due to supply chain issues; reappraisal of import duties needed
- EM economies expected to face further outflows
Thread on #FinanceMinister's 2nd PC.
- Focus on migrant workers, street vendors, traders, small farmers
- 9 steps in total: 3 for migrant workers, 1 to sishu loan mudra, 1 for street vendors, 2 for small farmers and some more...
- overlaps with packages will exist.
- 3 crore farmers availed loans at concessional rates, with loans aggregating to Rs. 4L cr.
- Interest subvention was extended till Mar & now till 31 May 2020
- 25 lakh new kisan credit cards given to marginal farmers, totaling 25,000 cr of loans
- Liquidity support for farmers & rural economy continued in last 2 mths (#COVID19 duration); Banks have lent continuously
- Refinancing of 29,000 cr by NABARD in Mar alone
- RIDF support of 4,200 cr for rural infra
- state govts sanctioned 6700 cr to procure agri produce