There is strong recovery in economy
Covid cases, fatality rate easing
Stock market capitalization at record high
Forex reserves at $560 bn
Energy consumption see 12% growth in Oct
Note: Only English notes will be provided, no translation😎
GST collections good, Bank credit improves by 5.1%, FDI inflows see 13% rise.
RBI predicts the possibility of a strong recovery by Q3, 1 quarter ahead of expectations.
Moody's revises India GDP forecast for:
CY20 to -8.9% from -9.6% earlier.
CY21 to 8.6% from 8.1% earlier.
- ECLGS: Sanctioned amount = Rs.2.05 lakh cr of 3 lakh cr provided, to 51 lakh borrowers, including MSME's, professionals, of which 1.52 lakh cr disbursed.
- Partial credit guarantee scheme: Bought portfolios worth 26,889 cr
- Special liquidity scheme for NBFCs: 7227 cr disbursed
2.0 - Festival advance: good progress (no numbers) SBI issued utsav card, LTC voucher scheme.
- 25,000 cr in addition for Capex for road transport & defense is issued
- 11 states sanctioned 3621 cr interest free loans for Capex. Add 450 cr for Bihar.
- IT refunds: 1.32 lakh cr.
- PM Rozgar Yojana: 8300 cr disbursed till Mar 2019
- New scheme called Atmanirbhar Rozgar Yojana🙄: new employee (sal: < Rs.15,000) not covered by EPFO earlier will be benefitted.
- Effective: 1st Oct 2020 and covers for 2 years.
- Benefits: Subsidy for 2 yrs, for Cos with <1000 employees but salary less than Rs.15000 per month , 24% (EPF portion) to be borne by central govt. 65% of formal sector employees
for Cos with >1000 employees, only EPF of 12% will be borne by central govt, Adhaar accounts needed
- ECLGS Scheme: extended to 31 March 2021, fully guaranteed and collateral free loans. (Delight for borrowers)
- Additional credit of 20% of outstanding loans as of Feb end.
- 2.05 lakh cr sanctioned...(😜check bank nifty)
ECLGS 2.0
- Launching a credit guarantee support scheme for 26 stressed sectors identified by Kamath Committee.
- 1 yr moratorium + 4 yrs of repayment & servicing
- to be available upto 31 Mar 2021, benefits MSME providing goods, services to eligible entities.
(#banknifty 😱)
#PLI Schemes:
- Champions 10 sectors, incentives offered yesterday, covering sunrise & labor intensive sectors
- 51,355 cr received by 3 sectors from earlier PLI schemes.
Src: Siddharth Zarabi
- PM Urban Aawaaz Yojana: 18,000 cr to be provided in this year for 12 lakh houses to be grounded, 18 lakh to be completed, over & above 8000 cr given in budget
- To support core sectors like Steel, Cement & provide jobs in const. sectors.
- Performance security on contracts to be restricted to 3% instead of 5%; Earnest money deposit not required for tenders.
- Will be given upto 41 Dec 2021; burden on contractors to be reduced and give flexibility for construction & infra.
Income tax relief for developers & home buyers:
- To increase differential from 10% to 20%, from today till 30 Jun 2021, only for primary sale of residential units, valued upto Rs. 2 cr., Both developers & home buyers to get this benefit & clear inventory.
- Changes to IT rules.
Equity Infusion of 6000 cr to NIIF debt platform.
- Investment in infra related activity to get boost.
65,000 cr for fertilizer subsidy for farmers
- crop sowing area increased and farmers need fertilizers, 140 million farmers to benefit.
- Garib Kalyan Rozgar yojana numbers...
- 61,500 cr for MNREGA, 40,000 cr additional given in 1.0, of that 73,504 cr spent, 251 cr person days of employment generated.
- additional 10,000 cr for informal sector to get opportunities in rural areas
Item 10: Exports:
- Additional 3000 cr to EXIM bank for promoting exports through lines of credit.
(Just two more left, please bear with the three of us - FM, MoS FM & me)
900 cr for Covid vaccine research, going to Department of Bio-technology;
Actual cost of vaccine or logistics cost is not being discussed; when time comes will provide as required.
(1/n) A thread on Kirloskar Ferrous Industries Ltd.
Founded in 1991, #Kirloskar Ferrous Industries Ltd. (KFIL) is in the business of Pig Iron and Grey Iron casting industry, serving infrastructure & construction, automotive, agriculture, manufacturing, textiles & steel sectors.
(2/n) Kirloskar Group was established in 1888. Laxmanrao Kashinath Kirloskar (20 Jun 1869 – 26 Sep 1956) was the founder of the Kirloskar Grp & the township of Kirloskarwadi, amongst India’s first industrial townships.
(3/n) Starting with a small bicycle repair shop at Belgaum on Kirloskar road, he manufactured India’s first iron plough, first Kirloskar product & chaff-cutters.
Shantanurao Kirloskar, Laxmanrao’s eldest son moved to Pune to start a diesel engines Co - Kirloskar Oil Engines Ltd.
(1/n) NSE Listed universe ownership trends:
- Total promoter ownership in NSE-listed #stocks⬆️by ~110bps (QoQ) to near 5 yr high of 50.9%
- FII ownership⬇️133bps (QoQ) to a 5 qtr low of 20.8% (highest sequential decline on a qtrly basis over last 19 yrs)
Src: NSE
(3/n)
Ownership trend across key stakeholders by TOTAL market cap over last 3 years &
Ownership trend across key stakeholders by FLOATING stock over last 3 years
#rbigovernor PC
- MPC voted in 5:1 ratio
- Repo rate reduced by 40bps from 4.4% to 4%
- Reverse repo rate cut to 3.35% from 3.75%
- Global economy headed into recession, with mfg PMI at 11 yr low
- Growth rate of EMs expected to be 2.6% to negative 6%.
- MPC maintaining accommodating stance till growth revives
- Prodn of most sectors declined rapidly, industrial production shrank by 17%
- Food grain prodn at record, normal monsoon expected
- Kharif sowing higher by 44%, Rabi procurement in full flow
- Farm incomes to improve;
- Merchandise exports plunged 60.3%, imports contracted by 58.6% (worst in many yrs) in Apr
- Reserves increased & at US$487 bn
- Inflation could increase due to supply chain issues; reappraisal of import duties needed
- EM economies expected to face further outflows
Thread on #FinanceMinister's 2nd PC.
- Focus on migrant workers, street vendors, traders, small farmers
- 9 steps in total: 3 for migrant workers, 1 to sishu loan mudra, 1 for street vendors, 2 for small farmers and some more...
- overlaps with packages will exist.
- 3 crore farmers availed loans at concessional rates, with loans aggregating to Rs. 4L cr.
- Interest subvention was extended till Mar & now till 31 May 2020
- 25 lakh new kisan credit cards given to marginal farmers, totaling 25,000 cr of loans
- Liquidity support for farmers & rural economy continued in last 2 mths (#COVID19 duration); Banks have lent continuously
- Refinancing of 29,000 cr by NABARD in Mar alone
- RIDF support of 4,200 cr for rural infra
- state govts sanctioned 6700 cr to procure agri produce
#FranklinTempleton Concall highlights:
- Committed to India investments
- Providing daily liquidity is the challenge
- Will forego management fees
- orderly winding down is in best interest of the investor
- companies invoking force majeure
- Will return as soon as possible
(Inputs courtesy of @sathish_sesh)
- Trying to focus on other portfolio, to avoid panic redemption from other schemes
People from Templeton on call:
Vivek, Sanjay, Anand Radhakrishnan, CIO & Head of equity.
I think it is a serious liquidity issue but AMC will remain operational.
Kamath says:
- It all started with Covid, which necessitated to lock the economy
- Been in the market for 25 years
- We don't know how this will pan out in the short to medium term
- Risk appetite will come back only when there is clarity on the market