Thread by @Javanmardi75

🇷🇺Russia fears economic collapse in Lebanon and Syria! Russia is expanding its movement in the ME. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is touring the Gulf states. & before that, the #Russian-#Syrian meetings were continuing. Needless to say, Russia is strongly present in Syria. 1/25

🇷🇺And Russian-#Israeli communication is not interrupted. As well as the Russian-#Iranian relationship. But Moscow fears the repercussions of the new 🇺🇸US policy in the Middle East. 2/25

And it is affected like some Persian Gulf countries, especially the Kingdom of 🇸🇦Saudi Arabia. It is expanding its movement, trying to strengthen its position vis-à-vis 🇺🇸Washington. 3/25

#Moscow knows that its influence is strong in Syria. However, it is facing a real crisis in re-floating the system and producing it. What the #Assad regime does not lose in the war, it can lose to the economy. 4/25

It is clear that the fiercest battle that Moscow is waging, to gather the largest number of positions and forces on its side, is to confront the 🇺🇸US #Caesar Act. Any country or company that tries to enter and work in a project on #Syrian soil will be subject to sanctions. 5/25

And Russia's economic obsession in Syria, it has the same in #Lebanon as well. It is trying to arrange indirect negotiations between the Syrian regime and Israel - sometimes with negotiations over the #Golan, or to control the security and military situation, 6/25

& partly to exchange prisoners or search for Eli Cohen's body - as a Russian & Syrian entrance to restore some relations or role. But it is the #Syrian economic and financial collapse that threatens the Russian project. This can be mirrored and repeated in #Lebanon as well. 7/25

According to information, the #Lebanese situation is a Russian priority at this stage. The meetings that Russian officials held with Lebanese officials, in which the Russians expressed their fear of security or military developments on the.. 8/25

Lebanese arena, due to the financial and economic collapse. It is a collapse that can have a negative impact on the Syrian situation, and the reverse is also true. #Moscow knows that Lebanon is Syria's backyard, no matter how circumstances and conditions change. 9/25

And what is happening in it is reflected in #Syria and vice versa. Russia is keen on maintaining an excellent relationship with all Lebanese powers. Its entrance into #Lebanon was clear: 10/25

: the Syrian #refugees, and a conference was held in Syria, in which Lebanon would participate, to discuss their return. It was preparing to hold a conference on Lebanese soil to discuss the return of refugees, but it was postponed for many reasons, 11/25

the most important of which is international: the lack of international consensus on the return of #refugees, in light of the lack of agreement on a political solution in Syria. 12/25

On the🇫🇷French initiative, Moscow is currently expanding its relations w/ Lebanese powers. It is trying to be active in #Lebanon's internal dilemmas by supporting the French initiative & integrating it aligned w/forming the govt to preserve a level of stability in Lebanon. 13/25

This is what #Russia is looking for with the President & representatives of the Republic, & with Prime Minister Saad #Hariri, while it continues to communicate with President Nabih Berri & Walid Jumblatt. Soon, a delegation from #Hezbollah will head to Moscow. 14/25

Acc to the information, preparations for this meeting began about a month ago. & specifically when the #Iranian Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, visited #Moscow. During that visit, the Lebanese file was raised with Zarif, & he advised the Russians to contact #Hezbollah. 15/25

Since then, Russian contacts have been active with the various Lebanese forces, to push for the removal of obstacles to the formation of the government. & #Russia has supported Saad #Hariri since the first day of his assignment. 16/25

However, on the grounds that he preserves his relationship w/ #Hezbollah, & does not enter into a confrontation with it, that may lead to tension in the political atmosphere. Moscow wants stability in Lebanon. 17/25

Two views of #Russia and the Russian move are two different readings, but they converge on a basic point: Russia does not have the ability to effect a change in the Lebanese dilemma, without its compatibility w/ the 🇺🇸Americans & the 🇸🇦Saudis. 18/25

That was the killing of the 🇫🇷French initiative. And Russia does not want to repeat the French failure. 19/25

As for the divergence of the two readings, it is evident that parties are betting on the development of Russian-PersianGulf relations, & their reflection on #Lebanon in favor of #Hezbollah's opponents in one form or another. 20/25

Whether it is the security of 🇮🇱Israel, or the attempts to return the Syrian regime to the Arab embrace, away from #Iran. This view sees a conflict btw Iranian & Russian interests in Lebanon also in Syria. This is linked to a basic file that #Russia is always brought to: 21/25

: the demarcation of the Lebanese-Syrian borders, & the control of the crossings used by #Hezbollah, & those who believe this view are draining Syria & Lebanon. 22/25

As for the second look, it goes back to the party that is betting on the continuation of the strategic understanding btw #Russia, #Iran & the #Syrian regime. It is a view that believes that this relationship cannot be hit by a major conflict, regardless of the differences. 23/25

But it is more likely that the 🇷🇺Russian movement will not lead to progress on the 🇱🇧Lebanese financial, economic & political crisis. Such crises concern Russia, but it cannot solve them. Therefore, it is a candidate for continuation. 24/25

Prospects for forming a government are blocked, as is getting aid. The crash continues, then. #Lebanon will be more connected to the 🇸🇾Syrian rhythm in the coming stage. 25/25

🇷🇺Russia fears economic collapse in Lebanon and Syria! (25 Tweets)
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