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12 Jul, 4 tweets, 7 min read
With a deal done at UNSC on Friday, cross-border aid will continue flowing via Bab al-Hawa, but doubts about #Russia's obstructionism remain; needs [will] continue to rise & perceived concessions raise Qs re. the long-term.

My latest for @MiddleEastInst:
mei.edu/blog/monday-br…
@MiddleEastInst "Any money that is sent to the U.N. mission in #Damascus in one way or another benefits the regime."

- My comments to @ForeignPolicy's @columlynch regarding a likely increase in funding to cross-line aid coordinated in #Damascus:

foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/09/uni…
@MiddleEastInst @ForeignPolicy @columlynch While most UNSC members are convinced the 2nd 6-month cross-border extension will be automatic, #Russia doesn't seem convinced.

Thanks to @pass_blue for highlighting my analysis following Friday's crunch UNSC vote on #Syria aid:

passblue.com/2021/07/09/cru…
@MiddleEastInst @ForeignPolicy @columlynch @pass_blue "The #Biden admin has long asserted that progress on the aid file would open the door for a more meaningful US-#Russia engagement on #Syria’s bigger diplomatic questions."

My comments in @arabnews on the UNSC deal on #Syria aid access:

arabnews.com/node/1891626/m…

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More from @Charles_Lister

Charles Lister Profile picture
6 Jul
The stakes involved in this UNSC #Syria vote are huge -- yet it shouldn't be a subject of debate at all.

Making use of its UN veto, #Russia seeks to starve #Syrians into submission -- for a guide to the issue, read this, by Jeffrey Feltman & myself:

politico.com/news/magazine/…
#Russia claims that cross-border aid should end & be replaced by cross-line assistance sent from #Damascus -- but that's BS.

For the 4.5m people in NW #Syria in the last 12 months:

- Cross-border: ~12,000 trucks
- Cross-line: 0

Negotiations for cross-line have gone nowhere.
In recent weeks, every single UN body & all major INGOs have made it 100% clear: "there's no alternative to cross-border aid."

Given #Russia's pitiful role in UN aid to #Syria (most years, IKEA funds more than #Moscow), it's simply exasperating that it would cut it altogether.
Read 6 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
26 Jun
Earlier this evening, penholders #Norway/#Ireland distributed a draft resolution specifying that crossings at Bab al-Hawa (NW) & al-Yaroubiya (NE) should be opened July 10.

In response, @USAmbUN has indicated the U.S. still demands all 3 crossings be opened (+ Bab al-Salameh).
@USAmbUN Though it's still early days, the effect of U.S pressure & behind-scenes face-off/negotiations has begun to emerge:

- @RussiaUN publicly praised recent U.S. sanctions safeguards & #COVID-linked sanctions easing
- @USAmbUN asserted support for cross-line being 'part of solution.'
@USAmbUN @RussiaUN This would give some credence to things I've heard privately & what Joey Hood suggested in an earlier @StateDept_NEA briefing -- that there's some hope that a compromise will be found that allows cross-border (at minimum, via Bab al-Hawa) to continue.

Qs is, what's driving that?
Read 4 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
21 Jun
At my count, the #Taliban have captured 30+ districts across #Afghanistan in 48hrs -- 100s of #ANA forces have surrendered & handed over bases, arms depots, weapons & vehicles.

The pace of the #Taliban's advance since the U.S. withdrawal announcement is shocking.
According to @oryxspioenkop, the #ANA has handed over 83 U.S-provided Humvees to the #Taliban in the past 3 days alone.

Over the past 3 weeks: 149 Humvees.

Meaningful numbers of howitzers have been surrendered too.
@oryxspioenkop Since the U.S. withdrawal announcement, the #Taliban has taken control of 75+ districts across #Afghanistan -- that's ~20% of the country.

The most movement has been in the north -- in Faryab & Kunduz, where the #Taliban now enjoy almost unchallenged freedom of movement.
Read 9 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
2 Jun
Protests continue in #Manbij for the 3rd day today, as locals demonstrate against the #SDF's policy of forced conscription.

The tensions have turned deadly this time, with 6+ dead.

Nearby, #Turkey artillery has also struck #SDF positions - intriguingly leading to an #SAA death. ImageImage
Beyond the tensions that #SDF conscription has caused within Arab-majority communities, the financial implications are of particular significance.

The last I heard 3 weeks ago, the #AANES has 300,000+ people on the payroll (civilian & armed) -- and revenue is shrinking, fast.
The U.S -- first under #Obama, then #Trump & now #Biden -- positioned the #SDF not just as the frontline vs. #ISIS, but also as a rival to #Assad's regime.

To match that expectation, the #SDF needed to grow & achieve Arab balance -- BUT we're now actively removing its revenue.
Read 7 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
1 Jun
.@frontlinepbs's documentary on #HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani begins at 10pm EST tonight -- it's already caused shockwaves in the jihadist world.

I've been studying #HTS (& its predecessors) & Jolani's leadership for 10yrs -- the story has profound analytical implications. Image
@frontlinepbs Few could have imagined in 2012-13 that Jolani's Jabhat al-Nusra would years later have a new name & be speaking in quasi nationalist tones; running a semi-technocratic "govt"; proactively engaging w. international NGOs & media; & seeking to establish dialogue w. Western govts.
@frontlinepbs The path between '12 Nusra & '21 #HTS is complex & strewn with inter-factional conflict; vicious internal strife; geopolitical manipulation; and above all, the impact of #Syria's nationwide uprising.

In breaking from #AlQaeda, #Jolani sparked a massive intra-jihadist debate.
Read 32 tweets
Charles Lister Profile picture
3 May
I'd be remiss if I didn't add that this move - described by @charlie_savage as "#Trump's secret rules" - was praised by several then-#ISIS-focused USG officials now serving as #Biden appointees.

This isn't an entirely partisan issue.
@charlie_savage #pt: Speaking at @MiddleEastInst
in July '17, @brett_mcgurk (now in @JoeBiden's NSC) said #Trump had introduced "key changes... that've made key differences..."

- "We've adopted a campaign of annihilation... a surround, constrict & annihilate strategy."

@charlie_savage @MiddleEastInst @brett_mcgurk @JoeBiden #pt: There's little/no debate across the partisan divide about the costs associated with "collateral damage" in CT strikes - BUT there *is* an active bipartisan debate about where to draw the line of risk under certain conditions.

The scale of the D-#ISIS campaign drew that out.
Read 6 tweets

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