Protests continue in #Manbij for the 3rd day today, as locals demonstrate against the #SDF's policy of forced conscription.
The tensions have turned deadly this time, with 6+ dead.
Nearby, #Turkey artillery has also struck #SDF positions - intriguingly leading to an #SAA death.
The tensions have turned deadly this time, with 6+ dead.
Nearby, #Turkey artillery has also struck #SDF positions - intriguingly leading to an #SAA death.
Beyond the tensions that #SDF conscription has caused within Arab-majority communities, the financial implications are of particular significance.
The last I heard 3 weeks ago, the #AANES has 300,000+ people on the payroll (civilian & armed) -- and revenue is shrinking, fast.
The last I heard 3 weeks ago, the #AANES has 300,000+ people on the payroll (civilian & armed) -- and revenue is shrinking, fast.
The U.S -- first under #Obama, then #Trump & now #Biden -- positioned the #SDF not just as the frontline vs. #ISIS, but also as a rival to #Assad's regime.
To match that expectation, the #SDF needed to grow & achieve Arab balance -- BUT we're now actively removing its revenue.
To match that expectation, the #SDF needed to grow & achieve Arab balance -- BUT we're now actively removing its revenue.
The "Delta Crescent" arrangement was controversial -- not least due to #Trump's idiotic "we're there for the oil" framing -- but notwithstanding geopolitical complications, there was an underlying logic:
- To sustain its relevance, the #SDF needs income, it *really* needs it.
- To sustain its relevance, the #SDF needs income, it *really* needs it.
At this juncture, the #Biden admin has indicated a clear interest in retaining a troop presence in NE #Syria, alongside the #SDF, to confront a clear & present #ISIS threat.
BUT that's not going to be sustainable if we fail to prevent the #AANES from literally going bankrupt.
BUT that's not going to be sustainable if we fail to prevent the #AANES from literally going bankrupt.
Though it may still be early days, the #Biden admin's approach so far has:
- Cut #SDF revenue streams;
- Reduced D-#ISIS-linked funding
- Failed to resume vital stabilization aid.
All the while, the #SDF loses leverage -- and so do we. Absent a change, that's not sustainable.
- Cut #SDF revenue streams;
- Reduced D-#ISIS-linked funding
- Failed to resume vital stabilization aid.
All the while, the #SDF loses leverage -- and so do we. Absent a change, that's not sustainable.
I'm reliably told - from someone w. access to the top of the #SDF - that at current trends, the #AANES has 10-12 months of money left before it runs out of cash.
When it can't pay salaries anymore, everything will go into flames -- they're headed to a forced surrender to #Assad.
When it can't pay salaries anymore, everything will go into flames -- they're headed to a forced surrender to #Assad.
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