I'd be remiss if I didn't add that this move - described by @charlie_savage as "#Trump's secret rules" - was praised by several then-#ISIS-focused USG officials now serving as #Biden appointees.
- "We've adopted a campaign of annihilation... a surround, constrict & annihilate strategy."
@charlie_savage@MiddleEastInst@brett_mcgurk@JoeBiden#pt: There's little/no debate across the partisan divide about the costs associated with "collateral damage" in CT strikes - BUT there *is* an active bipartisan debate about where to draw the line of risk under certain conditions.
@charlie_savage@MiddleEastInst@brett_mcgurk@JoeBiden#pt: The D-#ISIS campaign's reliance on "by-with-through" also necessitated a greater focus on supporting airpower -- as a recent @RANDCorporation study underlined -- as less capable ground forces (ISF, Pesh & #SDF) required far greater air & artillery support to move forward.
@charlie_savage@MiddleEastInst@brett_mcgurk@JoeBiden@RANDCorporation It's been clear to me at least that the debate on risk associated with CT-linked airstrikes (incl. drones) has not necessarily been a partisan one -- it's a genuine tactical/strategic debate with *a lot* of different inputs and positions.
OIR went very aggressive in D & R hands.
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Security sources say #IAJ jets have been “scrambled.”
#pt: Some sources say a rocket or missile may have been intercepted near #Dimona, #Israel.
Others say residences near the area shook during the explosion.
Security sources in #Israel seem unanimous that no rockets crossed from #Gaza, so all eyes on the #Syria border.
Claims of a Patriot interception would suggest a larger-than-normal projectile, so suspicion may fall onto #Iran — #Dimona is home to #Israel’s nuclear facility.
If you read between the lines, this means #Assad's economy was doing OK when #ISIS controlled the oil fields, but when the #SDF took them, the regime suffered.
That's quite an admission -- so perhaps the documented & sanctioned oil trade between #ISIS & #Assad really mattered!
Very interesting -- ahead of the D-#ISIS Small Group meeting, @aawsat_News says the coalition is considering expanding policy to include combating #ISIS in areas controlled by the #Assad-#Russia-#Iran alliance, which it says has "failed" to defeat #ISIS.
@aawsat_News It's been clear for a long time that #ISIS's resurgence, particularly in #Syria's central 'Badiya' desert was (a) sustainable & (b) eventually going to spillover into @CJTFOIR/#SDF areas on the eastern side of the #Euphrates.
@aawsat_News@CJTFOIR The @aawsat_News report says the D-#ISIS Coalition is working on a public statement in which 2 areas of pro-#Assad control -- the (1) Badiya & (2) #Syria-#Iraq border region -- could become areas of [aerial] @CJTFOIR operation.
The border is critical for logistics, finance etc.
@SecBlinken@ABlinken NEW - As has so often been the case, when the international community convenes high-level #Syria events (#SyriaConf2021 & UNSC), #Russia's jets take to the sky & drop bombs.
Multiple airstrikes being reported in #Idlib right now.
Last week, Jeff Feltman & I wrote something for @politico calling for high-level diplomacy to sustain unhindered cross-border aid access. There's nothing more important now:
With the #Biden administration settled in, there's a clear trend emerging in certain circles to swat away long-standing, complex foreign policy challenges -- and #Syria appears to be low-hanging fruit.
'#Syria doesn't matter,' some say... 'It was just never that important.'
It's good for there to be a debate -- & yes, 'great power competition' (#China, #Russia etc.) ought to be *the* priority.
BUT to shove #Syria aside as a minor inconvenience would be profoundly reckless, given the extraordinary costs it's inflicted on global stability since '11.
So far, arguments in favor of '#Syria doesn't matter' can be broken down into 2 camps:
(1) Those who ignore the profound past, current & future costs altogether - or worse - (2) those who astonishingly claim that #Assad, #Russia & #Iran can resolve the crisis & achieve stability