At my count, the #Taliban have captured 30+ districts across #Afghanistan in 48hrs -- 100s of #ANA forces have surrendered & handed over bases, arms depots, weapons & vehicles.

The pace of the #Taliban's advance since the U.S. withdrawal announcement is shocking.
According to @oryxspioenkop, the #ANA has handed over 83 U.S-provided Humvees to the #Taliban in the past 3 days alone.

Over the past 3 weeks: 149 Humvees.

Meaningful numbers of howitzers have been surrendered too.
@oryxspioenkop Since the U.S. withdrawal announcement, the #Taliban has taken control of 75+ districts across #Afghanistan -- that's ~20% of the country.

The most movement has been in the north -- in Faryab & Kunduz, where the #Taliban now enjoy almost unchallenged freedom of movement.
@oryxspioenkop The effect of the withdrawal announcement has been clear -- catalyzing a nationwide #Taliban offensive with debilitating results.

But as @Tmgneff underlines here, it's not just about U.S. troops. Without contractors, the Air Force is collapsing too:

nytimes.com/2021/06/19/wor…
@oryxspioenkop @Tmgneff When advocates of the #Afghanistan withdrawal celebrate "ending a forever war," they're displaying either (a) ignorance or (b) an ice-cold indifference to the suffering of foreigners.

That doesn't strike me as "progressive." By all means seek withdrawal, but not unconditionally.
@oryxspioenkop @Tmgneff "Western politicians... shield their eyes. They don’t want to see, let alone discuss, what’s about to happen. #NATO last week pledged future security force training & funding and said it would “continue to stand” with #Afghanistan. Stand back, more like."

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
@oryxspioenkop @Tmgneff #Afghanistan in the last **24hrs**

- Shirkhan Bandar port & border crossing with #Tajikistan under #Taliban control

- 4 districts taken by #Taliban

- Fighting inside Kunduz city

- 94 U.S.-provided military vehicles surrendered to/captured by #Taliban (per @oryxspioenkop)
@oryxspioenkop @Tmgneff As @DanLamothe notes, the DOD has been markedly silent on the #Afghanistan withdrawal in the past 2 weeks -- not great from a media/PR perspective, but hardly surprising given the evolving situation.
@oryxspioenkop @Tmgneff @DanLamothe BREAKING -- Source tells @DanLamothe that plans to close #Bagram Airbase -- the largest in #Afghanistan -- in July are "on hold," amid a dramatic spike in #Taliban advances across the country.

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More from @Charles_Lister

2 Jun
Protests continue in #Manbij for the 3rd day today, as locals demonstrate against the #SDF's policy of forced conscription.

The tensions have turned deadly this time, with 6+ dead.

Nearby, #Turkey artillery has also struck #SDF positions - intriguingly leading to an #SAA death. ImageImage
Beyond the tensions that #SDF conscription has caused within Arab-majority communities, the financial implications are of particular significance.

The last I heard 3 weeks ago, the #AANES has 300,000+ people on the payroll (civilian & armed) -- and revenue is shrinking, fast.
The U.S -- first under #Obama, then #Trump & now #Biden -- positioned the #SDF not just as the frontline vs. #ISIS, but also as a rival to #Assad's regime.

To match that expectation, the #SDF needed to grow & achieve Arab balance -- BUT we're now actively removing its revenue.
Read 7 tweets
1 Jun
.@frontlinepbs's documentary on #HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani begins at 10pm EST tonight -- it's already caused shockwaves in the jihadist world.

I've been studying #HTS (& its predecessors) & Jolani's leadership for 10yrs -- the story has profound analytical implications. Image
@frontlinepbs Few could have imagined in 2012-13 that Jolani's Jabhat al-Nusra would years later have a new name & be speaking in quasi nationalist tones; running a semi-technocratic "govt"; proactively engaging w. international NGOs & media; & seeking to establish dialogue w. Western govts.
@frontlinepbs The path between '12 Nusra & '21 #HTS is complex & strewn with inter-factional conflict; vicious internal strife; geopolitical manipulation; and above all, the impact of #Syria's nationwide uprising.

In breaking from #AlQaeda, #Jolani sparked a massive intra-jihadist debate.
Read 32 tweets
3 May
I'd be remiss if I didn't add that this move - described by @charlie_savage as "#Trump's secret rules" - was praised by several then-#ISIS-focused USG officials now serving as #Biden appointees.

This isn't an entirely partisan issue.
@charlie_savage #pt: Speaking at @MiddleEastInst
in July '17, @brett_mcgurk (now in @JoeBiden's NSC) said #Trump had introduced "key changes... that've made key differences..."

- "We've adopted a campaign of annihilation... a surround, constrict & annihilate strategy."

@charlie_savage @MiddleEastInst @brett_mcgurk @JoeBiden #pt: There's little/no debate across the partisan divide about the costs associated with "collateral damage" in CT strikes - BUT there *is* an active bipartisan debate about where to draw the line of risk under certain conditions.

The scale of the D-#ISIS campaign drew that out.
Read 6 tweets
21 Apr
BREAKING - reports of explosions heard near #Jerusalem, #Beersheeba, #Dimona & multiple other locations amid rocket sirens in #Israel.

Security sources say #IAJ jets have been “scrambled.”
#pt: Some sources say a rocket or missile may have been intercepted near #Dimona, #Israel.

Others say residences near the area shook during the explosion.
Security sources in #Israel seem unanimous that no rockets crossed from #Gaza, so all eyes on the #Syria border.

Claims of a Patriot interception would suggest a larger-than-normal projectile, so suspicion may fall onto #Iran#Dimona is home to #Israel’s nuclear facility.
Read 8 tweets
31 Mar
If you read between the lines, this means #Assad's economy was doing OK when #ISIS controlled the oil fields, but when the #SDF took them, the regime suffered.

That's quite an admission -- so perhaps the documented & sanctioned oil trade between #ISIS & #Assad really mattered!
Just in case the tweets are deleted, here they are...

More broadly, #Assad's regime lost control of almost all its oil in 2014 -- 3yrs before this 'game-changing' moment cited from 2017.

In truth, @joshua_landis
& George Saghir are making a political, not analytical statement.
@joshua_landis If you want to be analytical (& truthful), take a look at the evolution of #Syria's economy -- like this chart by @Karam__Shaar shows.

Now, does October 2017 look like a game-changing moment? No.

Does the start of #Lebanon's banking crisis? Irrefutably, yes.
Read 4 tweets
30 Mar
NEW -- Donors at #SyriaConf2021 have pledged a total of $6.4bn.

That's an enormous $3.6bn short of what the @UN needs to meet the increasing humanitarian needs in #Syria.
@UN A few more pledges for #Syria:

#EU: $657m
#Saudi: $560m
#Sweden: $97m
#Italy: $52m
#UAE: $30m

And a note on the $6.4bn total -- that's multi-year pledges. For 2021 alone, the figure is $4.2bn, less than half of what's needed.
Read 4 tweets

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