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Ahmed Quraishi Profile picture
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20 Nov, 6 tweets, 6 min read
#India's #Reliance and the #Saudi oil giant #Aramco call off their 2019 $15 billion deal. The main reasons are listed in this explainer by the @IndianExpress: Why Reliance and Aramco are re-evaluating their $15 billion deal.

indianexpress.com/article/explai…

via @GoogleNews
The economy is the main driver behind calling off #Reliance-#Aramco $15B deal, the biggest #India-#KSA investment agreement so far. But there are strong political factors also at play. These factors are not deal enablers or breakers but they impact policy.
#Iran is a factor in #India-#Saudi economic cooperation. Some Saudi experts believe enhanced engagement would wean New Delhi from dependence on #Iran for energy supply and as a strategic partner. Indian policymakers are not ready to part ways with Tehran, an ally since 1979.
Another factor is #Pakistan. #India is keen to court #KSA to impact Riyadh's historic tilt toward Islamabad. The results are unclear. This Indian pressure is similar to the pressure that #Israel faced to take an overtly hostile position on Pakistan (which Israel did not).
This #Reliance-#Aramco hiccup does not spell the end of #India-#KSA business coop. #Saudi is an energy behemoth and an econ powerhouse that the Indian economy cannot ignore. Riyadh can't overlook the Indian energy consumer market. But geostrategic considerations will be at play.
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More from @_AhmedQuraishi

Ahmed Quraishi Profile picture
6 Nov
#Pakistan update | Prime Minister @ImranKhanPTI's Government is now receiving messages from the opposition to resign, call for new election, and avoid passing election laws that would make polls easier to manipulate, including against the ruling #PTI itself. /1
In some ways, the opposition is sending messages to PM #ImranKhan to minimize his losses & avoid further empowering #Pakistan's civmil establishment in his last months in power. Meanwhile, the umbrella opposition alliance #PDM, other oppo parties, and some coalition parties/2
are agreed that it would be a mistake to push @ImranKhanPTI out of power now when opportunity exists. No one is eager to replace the ruling #PTI amid political & economic mess. Also, apparent lack of political consensus inside the civmil establishment adds to the uncertainty. /3
Read 8 tweets
Ahmed Quraishi Profile picture
29 Oct
Meanwhile, in #Pakistan, the country's political+military leaders are held hostage by extremist Islamists, literally forced to reconfirm their allegiance to Islam! The hordes threaten to storm the capital. Perfect script for a historical drama reliving 11th century in 21st. #TLP
...meanwhile, in #Islamabad, which resembles #Baghdad just before the Mongols stormed it. [Or #Rome as Nero fiddles]

Reported divisions within PM #ImranKhan Govt on how to deal with banned #TLP religious group threatening to storm #Pakistan capital #Islamabad. Meanwhile, discontent inside Punjab Police, where officers believe Govt and state abandoned them before religious extremists.
Read 8 tweets
Ahmed Quraishi Profile picture
29 Oct
#SaudiArabia expels #Lebanon ambassador. #GCC states expected to follow suit. Decision could impact Lebanese labor; comes after 🇱🇧 govt minister supports #Houthi militia in #Yemen. But this step reflects #Gulf frustration at #Iran-backed #Hezbollah militia's chokehold over 🇱🇧. /1
#Saudi decision to throw out #Lebanon ambassador is not a sudden move but also caps years of #Iran/#IRGC using #Lebanon produce/fruit export trucks to smuggle narcotics into the #Gulf. /2

#Kuwait media tycoon @Ahmadaljaralah says #Lebanon minister's statement is admission of #Iran military interference in #Yemen; calls #Hezbollah chief Nasrallah "Hassan Ammonia" (reference to #Beirut port warehouse explosion) /3

Read 11 tweets
Ahmed Quraishi Profile picture
26 Oct
#SaudiArabia decides to shore up the economically shaky govt of PM @ImranKhanPTI with a generous $4.2 billion package after "the issuance of kind guidance," according to Saudi news agency; in royal reference to @KingSalman
1⃣
2⃣tribune.com.pk/story/2326522/…
#SaudiArabia generously bails out PM @ImranKhanPTI for a second time in 3 years. This time with $3B deposit with @StateBank_Pak + $1.2B oil on deferred terms. #KSA bailed out PM Khan in Oct 2018 with a $6B package when #PTIGovernment faced economic meltdown in first year in power Image
By shoring up PM @ImranKhanPTI Govt again, #SaudiArabia is outdoing itself. The aid is significant coming just ten months after #KSA requested repayment on the previous aid [dawn.com/news/1596109]; a year after frosty ties w/ Khan govt after it appeared to line up angst Riyadh.
Read 5 tweets
Ahmed Quraishi Profile picture
10 Oct
For history, let me set the record straight on this interview I did in 2012 for a news website with ex-#ISI chief late LtGen Retd Hameed Gul. He personally liked me but also knew that I supported many of the political ideas of former President Gen. #Musharraf. /1 @MAbdullahGul
When LtGen. Gul in this clip said to me, "Why don't you understand?", I stopped recording a couple of minutes later and asked him bluntly, "Was Gen. Musharraf a traitor?" based on what LtGen. Hameed Gul was saying here. He took a long few seconds, gazing at the floor. /2
LtGen Hameed Gul took his time thinking, expressionless. It was a long silence. Then he raised his head and firmly said, "No." Calmer now, he then went on to explain, off-record, that he disagreed politically with President Musharraf but that Gen. Musharraf was not a traitor. /3
Read 7 tweets
Ahmed Quraishi Profile picture
8 Oct
Interesting coincidence that #US @DeputySecState Wendy Sherman is in #Pakistan two days after her #Iran counterpart Deputy FM Ali Bagheri was here. DepSecState @wendyrsherman played a key role in the original #JCPOA negotiations. /1 ImageImage
#Iran Deputy FM visit in the same week is coincidental. @DeputySecState Wendy Sherman's visit is focused on #Afghanistan, and the "important and longstanding #US-#Pakistan relationship," in her words. Here's @StateDeptSpox statement on the meeting with NSA @YusufMoeed. /2 Image
DepSecState Sherman's visit comes at the intersection of several issues: topping the list is #Afghanistan, but also jitters in #India at the renewed #USPakistan engagement, and the regional security situation [#Gulf+South Asia+#China]. /3
Read 8 tweets

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