π Real estate boom will continue, capitalization of developers will grow, according to RDV sources.
Need for families in #Russia for real estate is so much higher than supply of #developers that prices for square meters will inexorably rise.
$SMLT $PIKK $LSRG $ETLN
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The volume of the #RealEstate market in 2020 amounted to more than 17 trillion rubles - this is the second consumer market in #Russia.
Growth potential of share of top 5 #developers is 250% - up to level of consolidation of #grocery retail market comparable in size. Along with growth of share of large players, their revenue is growing. Top 5 public developers include #Samolet, #PIK and #LSR.
$SMLT $PIKK $LSRG
Developers will continue to build and earn a lot. In #Russia, and especially in #Moscow, provision with housing is 2-3 times lower than in #Germany, #China, #USA etc. Russians will continue to improve their living conditions, market growth potential is more than 100%.
The penetration of mortgages in #Russia is still low. Only ~5 mln families - 11% of the population have a #mortgage. In the next decade, the number of mortgages may double. The demand for housing is turning into sales from #developers.
β’ State is losing interest in a weak ruble. Weak ruble was beneficial to #Russia, since budget received revenues in foreign currency, but spent rubles.
β’ Foreigners need to hedge risk of ruble appreciation. They will be forced to keep ruble balances or sell EURRUB futures.
2/5
β’ Moscow Exchange will develop: both currency trading and bond market. The same #Gazprom will switch to loans in rubles, the Europeans will need to somehow place their rubles. $GAZP
β’ Next, we may move away from the accumulation of "unfriendly" currencies in gold reserves.
3/5
A storm in Black sea stopped all $CVX oil exports from #Kazakhstan.
It turns out that 30% of Chevron oil production was heavily reliant on Russian #oil transportation system, which makes $CVX expose to russian risks.
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CPC transports oil from northwestern part of #Kazakhstan to Novorossiysk for further transportation by sea.
During 2021, CPC transported an average of 1.3 mn barrels of crude #oil per day, composed of 1.1 mn barrels per day from Kazakhstan (~75% of Kazakhstan's exports).
2/10
Due to storm in Black Sea, oil loading at sea terminal of Caspian Pipeline Consortium near Novorossiysk was completely stopped. Pumping of #oil through CPC system is still going on, but tank farm will be full by the evening, after which it will stop. kommersant.ru/doc/5270959?frβ¦
3/10
β’ about 40% of #palladium imports, which are needed for emission control catalysts; #greeneconomy
β’ about 30% of #titanium imports, which are critical for #EU aerospace industry - #Airbus supplies about half of its titanium from #Russia. $AIR
For Russian investors, #cryptocurrencies have become important asset class β there are twice as many funds in crypto accounts as in brokerage accounts. Ban could have a negative impact on credibility of Central Bank and the authorities in general. bloomberg.com/news/articles/β¦
π If you can't win - lead!
Central Bank, together with Ministry of Finance, found best way out of situation instead of a complete ban - to allow trading in #cryptocurrencies through banks, which will make all transactions transparent to Central Bank.
β’ They don't do anything themselves, but they demand some kind of performance from us. Let's not play like that - on the situation around #NATO and #Ukraine. 1/6
β’ A number of #Macron's ideas, which are still too early to talk about, are quite possible to form the basis for further steps in #Ukraine.
β’ If you like it or not, be patient, my beauty, you must comply - on #Kiev's attitude to #Minsk agreements.
2/6
β’ #Russia's central concerns about security assurances have been ignored by #US and #NATO.
β’ We agreed with #Macron to continue mutually beneficial cooperation in economy, politics, cultural and humanitarian spheres.
3/6
β How will the confrontation between Russia and the West develop further?
Military operations, prolongation of the conflict, the split of Ukraine. Three opinions from RDV sources.
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π·πΊπ¨π³ China and Russia will unite against #USA. #Putin travels to #Beijing on February 4. #Russia is fighting, #China is paying. China benefits because it weakens #UnatedStates and diverts its attention from itself. 1/3
πΊπΈπ #US will "eternally" delay resolution of conflict. Russia is trying to obtain guarantees to limit #NATO's eastward expansion, when there is a shortage of #oil and #gas. It will be difficult for #Europe to agree to Iranian scenario, other scenarios for Russia are not terrible