Gonzalo Varela Profile picture
Jan 27 9 tweets 10 min read
With @StateBank_Pak releasing dissaggregated #trade data for December, we have a picture of the full 2021, which, despite #supply #chain disruptions worldwide, was 'good' for #Pakistan. Short thread below:
1\ #exports grew by 30.1% in 2021 w.r.t. 2020, with a strong pick up in merchandise, but also substantive in services.

#trade #Pakistan
2\ To be sure, in #real terms, #Pakistan's #exports remain below its local max in 2011. So, no 'record exports' if we talk real terms and not values.
3\ #Export growth was widespread by destination when focusing on the top 8.

#trade #Pakistan
4\ And also by #sector, with #textiles and #garments leading the way.

#trade #Pakistan
5\ In #services, it was a very good year for #knowledge #intensive services #exports, led by #ICT and other #business services.
6\ #Import growth outperformed #export growth, registering an increase in values of 49.5% in 2021 w.r.t. 2020.
7\ A substantial chunk of this increase is because of increases in #commodity #prices: mainly petroleum, edible oils and cotton.

#trade #Pakistan
8\ Sustaining #export growth will be crucial to reduce external vulnerabilities that arise from increasing #trade deficits. More #productivity, #credit for productive #investments, and better #incentives, will help. Read more here: thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/4fe3cf6… #trade #Pakistan

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More from @gonwei

May 28, 2021
On May 26th @StateBank_Pak released #Pakistan's disaggregated #trade statistics for April '21. We now have 10 months of the FY21. Some analysis in #thread below. 👇👇👇
#Pakistan #exports of #goods & #services grew by 6.2%., surpassing the US$25 billion mark. (2/n) Pakistan exports of goods and services, first 10 months of F
By #destination: substantial increases of shipments to #China and the #USA. Stability with #Afghanistan, and contractions in shipments to #UAE.

[#export growth to China and USA is confirmed by mirror data analysis] (3/n) Pakistan exports by destination, in million USD. (source SBP
Read 10 tweets
May 26, 2021
In the context of #Africa Day 2021, what's #Pakistan's untapped #export potential with that region? #thread 👇👇👇
We have recently estimated #Pakistan's export potential at about US$88 billion. The untapped portion of that is close to US$61 billion.

thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/884b60a… 2/n
The largest untapped #export potentials for #Pakistan are with #China, and with its own region, #SouthAsia, for about 13 and 12.5 billion respectively, stressing the importance #regional #integration initiatives. 3/n
Read 5 tweets
Nov 16, 2020
Wanted to analyze #Pakistan's #export performance, benchmarking with structural and aspirational countries, along 4 dimensions - #growth, #diversification, #quality, #survival. Thread below: 👇👇👇
1/n Since the turn of the century, #Pakistan has become a more inward oriented economy, with exports/GDP falling from 16 to 10%.
2/n As a result, #Pakistan's share of world markets fell from 16USD to 12USD out of every 1000USD traded between 1990 and 2019. #Bangladesh moved from 5 to 18USD in the same period. #Vietnam from 14 to 113USD!!!
Read 13 tweets
Nov 24, 2019
Nice article by @AliKhizar. To add to the dialogue, I'd like to share a few thoughts:
Pakistan moved into a current account surplus after years of a deficit. There seems to be a debate on whether that’s a good or a bad thing. Are CAD “bad”? As with everything in economics, the answer is ‘it depends’. #PakThink 1/n
To understand why, let’s look at what is it that the CA balance shows. I wrote this a few years ago and can help clarify – Essentially composition of the CA balance and financing matter. #PakThink 2/n
Read 11 tweets

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