Sunil Jhaveri Profile picture
Mar 13 16 tweets 13 min read
Lot of #AMCs come up with different ideas, themes, sectors.

These are demands from #Investors as they have done well in recent past.

AMCs are manufacturers & will offer what is in demand.

Final choice to say YES or NO lies entirely with Investors based on their #NEEDs
What should investors choose and what should they ignore. A point by point guide on where and why to invest in certain #themes, #MarketCap bias, #Sectors, #AssetClasses etc.

What should be criteria for these selections and what should guide them to resist from Investing?
Lets start with #Debt:

Keep enough money as 1 year of your expenses as #EmergencyFunds in #LiquidSchemes

You already have enough exposure to debt as:

1. #PPF
2. #TaxFreeBonds
3. #FDs

No need for separate debt allocation if you are investing thru #AssetAllocation (AA) or #DAAF
If you invest in Debt, you will need to ride risks of 1) #InterestRate 2) #Liquidity 3) #Credit 4) #Reinvestment

Debt should cushion your portfolios during volatility & not add to it. Treat it as temporary parking vehicle to be deployed in Equity at cheaper valuations thru AA
#Gold

Though I don't treat it as an investment, it is a social compulsion in Indian context for jewelery etc at times of marriage

Start SIP in Gold as soon as your child is born.Exposure of at least 10% of your portfolio. Will also work as hedge like in current uncertain times
#GlobalEquities
became flavors of the season till recent past due to US markets doing well since 2008-09 financial crisis. Investors are flocking to this looking at past performances.

Good #Geographical and #Currency diversification if done within limits of 10-20% of portfolio
Many investors had invested in #Nasdaq, #HangSeng, #China dedicated funds looking at #PastPerformances, only to burn their fingers.

Ideal is to allocate to schemes like @ICICIPruMF Global FoF which will decide which Country, Currency etc to invest, when and how much
#Equity:

Great tool for long term #WealthCreation if invested at right #Valuations. Otherwise can become wealth destructor as well if invested at expensive valuations.

70-80% portfolios always in Equity thru DAAF or #AssetAllocation (AA) with an eye on #DownsideProtection
Within Equity:

#LargeCap - gives more stability to #Portfolio vs Mid or Small Caps.
50-60% in Large Cap
20-30% in #MidCap (future Large Caps)
10-20% in #SmallCap (future mid caps)
You must know when to exit when markets become expensive. Otherwise, #Volatility in Mid and Small Caps will frustrate you.

Remember:
Rs. 100 lacs invested in NIFTY Small Cap 100 on 1st Jan 2018 had crashed to Rs.36 lacs on 23rd Mar 2020. Many exited at these levels
Ideal #solution in Equity:

Leave market cap bias to #FundManagers (FMs) to decide thru a mix of #FlexiCap and #MultiCaps. They will be more nimble footed during volatile periods and increase/decrease market Cap allocations accordingly
#Sectoral/ #Thematic Funds:

A big NO for me. Unless I am capable of knowing when these sectors/themes will go out of flavour and when I should exit, these are tactical calls which should be best left to FMs thru their respective Equity Fund offerings
Recent examples of Sectors being in flavor and going out of flavor soon thereafter:

#DiagnosticLabs during #COVID period.

Something similar had happened to #Infra sector during 2006-07 infra boom and bust

#TechBubble of 1999-2000

Investors needed to be nimble footed in exits
#IPOs of #Shares:

Retail investors in general are incapable of analyzing a new IPO.

I have personally never invested in IPOs.

Many times these are #OFS giving exit to old investors and new investors invest at expensive valuations.

All are aware of outcomes of recent IPOs
Better once again is to trust professional managers for this. @EdelweissMF has a scheme which analyses IPOs and invests in them (even as early investors before the IPO). This should give comfort to investors of both analysis of the IPOs and allocations
Hope above guides investors to create their own discipline in their Investment process.

If you create a list of where not to invest ever, 50% of your job will be done with much better outcomes.

Rest is noise that should be ignored. Otherwise, it can only derail you

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More from @IamMisterBond

Feb 22
From Jan 2018 to peak of #EquityMarkets on 18th Oct 2021, #SmartInvesting of @IamMisterBond underperformed #BuyAndHold only against #NIFTY50 but beat NIFTY Mid and Small Cap 100 by a big margin.

Post that, markets have been #volatile with downward bias Image
Results of Smart Investing v/s Buy & Hold under all Market Caps is for all to see - with 1) lower volatility, 2) beating results of Buy & Hold by big margins

#SmartInvesting switched to Equity in Mar 20 after downside protection and switched back to DAAF by Jul 20
3) Values under Buy & Hold have gone down substantially from Oct 2021 to Feb 2022 v/s values going down marginally under Smart Investing due to being in #DAAF, 4) Smart Investing portfolios better placed at current juncture to take advantage of market #volatility v/s Buy & Hold
Read 6 tweets
Jan 24
#Budget2022 wish list:

Congratulations to @nsitharaman and @PMOIndia to guide our country thru this #pandemic period. You have avoided excesses of many countries during this period. Thanks to that #India is touted as the next preferred #investment destination.
It is dream of our Hon #PMModi to reach $5 trln economy very soon. For that, besides Govt spending, you will need help from citizens to save, invest and channel the same to productive use through investment vehicles like Mutual Funds.
Our #MutualFund Industry has grown from 25 lac crs to currently 37 lac crs and likely to touch 100 lac crs.

#MF mobilizes #savings of all #Investors - #retail, #HNI, #Institutional and helps in growing our economy by participating in #Debt and #Equity - key drivers for growth
Read 15 tweets
Jan 10
We have been told following:
1. Time in market more important than timing the market
2. Long Term is 5 yrs plus

Chart will prove the above wrong. First, timing the market is more important then time in the market

Entry as important as Exit points. There are many such examples
Investing at right Valuations is of paramount importance

Cannot buy at any levels and expect good returns going forward

If bought at expensive valuations-long term may change from 5 to 7 to 10 years

From 01-01-08 to 01-01-21 - 14 years NIFTY - 7.63% p.a. -sub optimal returns
When one invests at expensive valuations-like current period, you are eating into future returns

In such instances, tone down your future returns expectations

Otherwise you will have regrets and disappointments in future

Invest wisely without having #FOMO thru #AssetAllocation
Read 4 tweets
Dec 17, 2021
Stupendous #returns in various schemes of 6 wound up schemes including flows from segregated portfolios. I do not think anyone in their wildest dreams had thought of such an outcome a year back. #XIRR is the right way to gauge returns as payments were recd in different tranches.
Also, give credit where it is due. All this has happened only due to sale of the so called quote-unquote, #ILLIQUID, #LOWQUALITYDEBT. These were sold at huge premiums within a span of 12 months (6-8 months were wasted in court cases, voting for winding up etc).
These securities were sold seamlessly by another Fund House due to Court Order. This was possible only because underlying securities, structures, quality, etc was good to start with created by the #FundManager of @FTIIndia
Read 4 tweets
Sep 28, 2021
Market participants are going ga-ga over past one & half year returns since March 2020 till now. They are analysing returns in Bits & Pieces.

I do not think many have even participated in this rally as most exited in March 2020, waiting for further corrections
They are conveniently forgetting recent past corrections and drawdown.

Lower the drawdown, faster the bounce backs
Ideal way to look at returns is as a continuous journey. That can give true picture of what Investors would have generated in any scheme.

In spite of euphoria - look at NIFTY Small or Mid Cap 100 returns from 01-01-2018 till 27-09-2021 + attached volatility v/s other DAAFs
Read 4 tweets
Sep 26, 2021
Two major incidents in Debt Markets & learnings from that:

1. @FTIIndia saga of #Winding up 6 #DebtSchemes

2. Delay in @KotakMF #FMPs repayments to Investors & giving time to Borrowers to repay

Disclaimer: Not justifying their actions/inactions/investments etc.
Hugely negative reactions by Media/Investors/MFDs - vociferously blaming respective AMCs, filing Court cases, knocking on doors of the regulator and beyond

Did not make an effort to understand actions of the #AMCs which were done to protect #InvestorInterests
What were choices with AMCs:

1. Winding up by FT/ Delay by Kotak or,

2. Sell underlying collateral at huge discounts, pay what is recovered to #Investors & raise their hands as this is part of #CreditRisk
Read 12 tweets

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