⚡️ How much could Chevron stock tumble?

A storm in Black sea stopped all $CVX oil exports from #Kazakhstan.

It turns out that 30% of Chevron oil production was heavily reliant on Russian #oil transportation system, which makes $CVX expose to russian risks.

Thread 🧵👇
CPC transports oil from northwestern part of #Kazakhstan to Novorossiysk for further transportation by sea.
During 2021, CPC transported an average of 1.3 mn barrels of crude #oil per day, composed of 1.1 mn barrels per day from Kazakhstan (~75% of Kazakhstan's exports).
2/10
Due to storm in Black Sea, oil loading at sea terminal of Caspian Pipeline Consortium near Novorossiysk was completely stopped. Pumping of #oil through CPC system is still going on, but tank farm will be full by the evening, after which it will stop.
kommersant.ru/doc/5270959?fr…
3/10
🛢 The Caspian Pipeline Consortium faced unscrupulous behavior of partners who refused to supply components for the TLU, the head of the company said. That is why the repair may take 1.5 months - until the end of April. And all this time the shipment will be frozen. #OOTT
4/10
Theoretically, part of the #oil can go through another Atyrau – Samara oil pipeline through #Russia. However, its technical feasibility and availability of free capacity are questionable. #OOTT
5/10
Deliveries are falling from fields in #Kazakhstan, their shareholders are foreign #oil companies:
🇺🇸 Tengiz: #Chevron owns 50%, #ExxonMobil - 25%. $XOM
🇺🇸 Karachaganak: $CVX owns 18%.
🇺🇸🇳🇱🇫🇷 Kashagan: Exxon, #Shell and #Total each own 17% of the project. $SHEL $TTE
6/10
Most exposed to CPC failure is #Chevron:
• All of Tengizchevroil’s 2021 crude #oil production was exported through CPC pipeline.
• Most of the exported liquids from Karachaganak Field were transported through the CPC pipeline during 2021.
7/10
TCO (Tengiz) is the crown jewel of #Chevron
• 22% of net proved reserves of liquids
• 15% of net liquids production
• 18% profit (TCO in 2021 brought $CVX $2.8 of profit

Source: chevron.com/-/media/shared…
8/10
Oil companies that have assets in the Russian Federation:
$BP and #Total since the beginning of the year +0-10%
and #Chevron +41%... $TTE #OOTT
9/10
The storm stopped 75% of #Kazakhstan's oil exports to the West, which was supposed to replace #Russia's Urals.
Chevron, an #oil producer whose transportation system is heavily reliant on Russia, will be hit the hardest in this story. $CVX
10/10

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with RDV Analytics

RDV Analytics Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @rdv_analytics

Mar 23
🔥 What does transition to sale of #gas for rubles mean? #ONGT

#Russia will continue to receive foreign exchange earnings: Europeans will buy rubles for euros, since they do not have their own rubles.
1/5
• State is losing interest in a weak ruble. Weak ruble was beneficial to #Russia, since budget received revenues in foreign currency, but spent rubles.

• Foreigners need to hedge risk of ruble appreciation. They will be forced to keep ruble balances or sell EURRUB futures.
2/5
• Moscow Exchange will develop: both currency trading and bond market. The same #Gazprom will switch to loans in rubles, the Europeans will need to somehow place their rubles. $GAZP

• Next, we may move away from the accumulation of "unfriendly" currencies in gold reserves.
3/5
Read 5 tweets
Feb 9
🇷🇺🇪🇺 To what extent does #Europe depend on Russian raw materials?

Policymakers fear the bloc is less prepared than Moscow. EU anti-Russian sanctions - shot yourself in the knee.
ft.com/content/26d7e3…
• about 40% of natural #gas imports;
• almost a third of crude #oil imports.

Eurozone gas inventories are below historical levels and prices have risen sharply in recent months, giving #Russia additional leverage over #Europe.

#OOTT #ONGT
• about 40% of #palladium imports, which are needed for emission control catalysts; #greeneconomy
• about 30% of #titanium imports, which are critical for #EU aerospace industry - #Airbus supplies about half of its titanium from #Russia. $AIR
Read 4 tweets
Feb 9
₿ The ban is canceled: new concept of #cryptocurrency regulation in #Russia.

Which Russian companies have already prepared?

Thread 🧵👇
For Russian investors, #cryptocurrencies have become important asset class – there are twice as many funds in crypto accounts as in brokerage accounts. Ban could have a negative impact on credibility of Central Bank and the authorities in general.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
🔝 If you can't win - lead!

Central Bank, together with Ministry of Finance, found best way out of situation instead of a complete ban - to allow trading in #cryptocurrencies through banks, which will make all transactions transparent to Central Bank.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 8
🇷🇺🇫🇷 Main from press conference following the talks between the presidents of #Russia and #France

#Putin:

• They don't do anything themselves, but they demand some kind of performance from us. Let's not play like that - on the situation around #NATO and #Ukraine.
1/6 Image
• A number of #Macron's ideas, which are still too early to talk about, are quite possible to form the basis for further steps in #Ukraine.

• If you like it or not, be patient, my beauty, you must comply - on #Kiev's attitude to #Minsk agreements.
2/6
#Russia's central concerns about security assurances have been ignored by #US and #NATO.

• We agreed with #Macron to continue mutually beneficial cooperation in economy, politics, cultural and humanitarian spheres.
3/6
Read 6 tweets
Jan 19
❓ How will the confrontation between Russia and the West develop further?

Military operations, prolongation of the conflict, the split of Ukraine. Three opinions from RDV sources.

Thread 🧵👇
🇷🇺🇨🇳 China and Russia will unite against #USA. #Putin travels to #Beijing on February 4. #Russia is fighting, #China is paying. China benefits because it weakens #UnatedStates and diverts its attention from itself.
1/3
🇺🇸🕔 #US will "eternally" delay resolution of conflict. Russia is trying to obtain guarantees to limit #NATO's eastward expansion, when there is a shortage of #oil and #gas. It will be difficult for #Europe to agree to Iranian scenario, other scenarios for Russia are not terrible
Read 6 tweets
Jan 19
Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Ryabkov speaks at the Valdai discussion club:

• European security situation is critical.
#USA and #NATO are trying to isolate convenient points from #Russia's proposals for security guarantees.
• Security talks were helpful.
• Issue of security guarantees is urgent. We expect to receive an answer soon.
#Russia doesn't intend to change disposition of its military forces near #Ukraine.
• We look forward to continuing the dialogue with #USA.
#Sanctions don't work and won't lead to policy change.
• The #UnitedStates is deliberately heating up the situation by announcing existing scenarios for responding to #Russia's "invasion" of #Ukraine.
• Moscow calls on the West to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. This poses a threat to Russia's security.
#RussiaInvadedUkraine
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(