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Feb 9 β€’ 6 tweets β€’ 5 min read
β‚Ώ The ban is canceled: new concept of #cryptocurrency regulation in #Russia.

Which Russian companies have already prepared?

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
For Russian investors, #cryptocurrencies have become important asset class – there are twice as many funds in crypto accounts as in brokerage accounts. Ban could have a negative impact on credibility of Central Bank and the authorities in general.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
πŸ” If you can't win - lead!

Central Bank, together with Ministry of Finance, found best way out of situation instead of a complete ban - to allow trading in #cryptocurrencies through banks, which will make all transactions transparent to Central Bank.
According to Kremlin, legal entities - #crypto exchanges and intermediaries - can bring 90-180 bn rubles to the budget annually. With a tax rate of 20%, it turns out that the net profit of crypto exchanges in #Russia is 360-720 bn per year.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
But is anyone ready to provide platform for #cryptocurrency trading to Russians?

❗️ Yes. New legislation could make @tinkoff_bank one of the main organizers of exchange of cryptocurrencies in #Russia. $TCSG was first to start dealing with crypto - bought Swiss exchange Aximetria
Due to cryptocurrencies, net profit could grow by RUB 216-432 bn (3.5x) if $TCSG can take 60% of #cryptocurrency trading market, as it has done with shares. Tinkoff has the largest investor base in #Russia - 1.26 mn people or 66% of the total market.

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More from @rdv_analytics

RDV Analytics Profile picture
Feb 9
πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί To what extent does #Europe depend on Russian raw materials?

Policymakers fear the bloc is less prepared than Moscow. EU anti-Russian sanctions - shot yourself in the knee.
ft.com/content/26d7e3…
β€’ about 40% of natural #gas imports;
β€’ almost a third of crude #oil imports.

Eurozone gas inventories are below historical levels and prices have risen sharply in recent months, giving #Russia additional leverage over #Europe.

#OOTT #ONGT
β€’ about 40% of #palladium imports, which are needed for emission control catalysts; #greeneconomy
β€’ about 30% of #titanium imports, which are critical for #EU aerospace industry - #Airbus supplies about half of its titanium from #Russia. $AIR
Read 4 tweets
RDV Analytics Profile picture
Feb 8
πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡«πŸ‡· Main from press conference following the talks between the presidents of #Russia and #France

#Putin:

β€’ They don't do anything themselves, but they demand some kind of performance from us. Let's not play like that - on the situation around #NATO and #Ukraine.
1/6 Image
β€’ A number of #Macron's ideas, which are still too early to talk about, are quite possible to form the basis for further steps in #Ukraine.

β€’ If you like it or not, be patient, my beauty, you must comply - on #Kiev's attitude to #Minsk agreements.
2/6
β€’ #Russia's central concerns about security assurances have been ignored by #US and #NATO.

β€’ We agreed with #Macron to continue mutually beneficial cooperation in economy, politics, cultural and humanitarian spheres.
3/6
Read 6 tweets
RDV Analytics Profile picture
Jan 19
❓ How will the confrontation between Russia and the West develop further?

Military operations, prolongation of the conflict, the split of Ukraine. Three opinions from RDV sources.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China and Russia will unite against #USA. #Putin travels to #Beijing on February 4. #Russia is fighting, #China is paying. China benefits because it weakens #UnatedStates and diverts its attention from itself.
1/3
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ•” #US will "eternally" delay resolution of conflict. Russia is trying to obtain guarantees to limit #NATO's eastward expansion, when there is a shortage of #oil and #gas. It will be difficult for #Europe to agree to Iranian scenario, other scenarios for Russia are not terrible
Read 6 tweets
RDV Analytics Profile picture
Jan 19
Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Ryabkov speaks at the Valdai discussion club:

β€’ European security situation is critical.
β€’ #USA and #NATO are trying to isolate convenient points from #Russia's proposals for security guarantees.
β€’ Security talks were helpful.
β€’ Issue of security guarantees is urgent. We expect to receive an answer soon.
β€’ #Russia doesn't intend to change disposition of its military forces near #Ukraine.
β€’ We look forward to continuing the dialogue with #USA.
β€’ #Sanctions don't work and won't lead to policy change.
β€’ The #UnitedStates is deliberately heating up the situation by announcing existing scenarios for responding to #Russia's "invasion" of #Ukraine.
β€’ Moscow calls on the West to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. This poses a threat to Russia's security.
#RussiaInvadedUkraine
Read 4 tweets
RDV Analytics Profile picture
Jan 19
❓❗️ How long will the Russian market fall?

πŸ”₯ Russian physicists don't have enough money to buy out the sales of foreigners. Therefore, fall may continue, the source of the RDV believes.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Relations between #Russia and the West are now at the bottom since the Caribbean crisis. And at such a moment, it is difficult for a Western fund manager to explain to his investors why he continues to hold $SBER, $TCSG, or something else from Russia. $RTSI

Think πŸ‘‡
#Sberbank:
β€’ Foreign funds own about $30 bn worth of shares, or 40-45% of all shares.
β€’ All retail investor now have $30 bn in all Russian stocks.
β€’ That is, Russian retail investor will buy out $SBER foreign sales ONLY if they sell all other shares combined.
Read 4 tweets
RDV Analytics Profile picture
Jan 17
πŸ”₯ Recognition of #atom as #ESG investment can increase capitalization of $KAP by 6 times, RDV sources calculated.

#Uranium producers can follow path of raw material suppliers for GreenTech: World has begun to recognize #nuclear as green.


Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
After start of development of global environmental agenda, not only GreenTech companies, but also suppliers of raw materials for them, have risen in price. Development of #EV, #solarpanels, windmills and batteries required a large amount of raw materials.
Atom will be perceived on a par with other green technologies. This means that world will need more fuel for #nuclearpower plants - #uranium. Market can value its miners on par with lithium miners.
Read 4 tweets

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