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Jan 19 β€’ 6 tweets β€’ 7 min read
❓ How will the confrontation between Russia and the West develop further?

Military operations, prolongation of the conflict, the split of Ukraine. Three opinions from RDV sources.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China and Russia will unite against #USA. #Putin travels to #Beijing on February 4. #Russia is fighting, #China is paying. China benefits because it weakens #UnatedStates and diverts its attention from itself.
1/3
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ•” #US will "eternally" delay resolution of conflict. Russia is trying to obtain guarantees to limit #NATO's eastward expansion, when there is a shortage of #oil and #gas. It will be difficult for #Europe to agree to Iranian scenario, other scenarios for Russia are not terrible
And when #energycrisis fizzles out, it will be easier to "squeeze" #Russia. Note that in 2014, Russia was first covered by #sanctions, and then #oil was flooded (shale oil). #OOTT #ONGT
2/3
πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¬πŸ‡ͺ Likely scenario: #Russia recognizes #Donbass and #Luhansk as independent states, as it recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia, introduces peacekeepers there to protect them. West is covering Russia with #sanctions, but adding #Ukraine to #NATO will be extremely difficult.
3/3
⚑️⚑️⚑️ Deputies of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation submitted to the State Duma of Russia a draft appeal to the president "On the need to recognize the #Donetsk People's Republic and the #Luhansk People's Republic".

sozd.duma.gov.ru/bill/58243-8#b…

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More from @rdv_analytics

RDV Analytics Profile picture
Jan 19
Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Ryabkov speaks at the Valdai discussion club:

β€’ European security situation is critical.
β€’ #USA and #NATO are trying to isolate convenient points from #Russia's proposals for security guarantees.
β€’ Security talks were helpful.
β€’ Issue of security guarantees is urgent. We expect to receive an answer soon.
β€’ #Russia doesn't intend to change disposition of its military forces near #Ukraine.
β€’ We look forward to continuing the dialogue with #USA.
β€’ #Sanctions don't work and won't lead to policy change.
β€’ The #UnitedStates is deliberately heating up the situation by announcing existing scenarios for responding to #Russia's "invasion" of #Ukraine.
β€’ Moscow calls on the West to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. This poses a threat to Russia's security.
#RussiaInvadedUkraine
Read 4 tweets
RDV Analytics Profile picture
Jan 19
❓❗️ How long will the Russian market fall?

πŸ”₯ Russian physicists don't have enough money to buy out the sales of foreigners. Therefore, fall may continue, the source of the RDV believes.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
πŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ Relations between #Russia and the West are now at the bottom since the Caribbean crisis. And at such a moment, it is difficult for a Western fund manager to explain to his investors why he continues to hold $SBER, $TCSG, or something else from Russia. $RTSI

Think πŸ‘‡
#Sberbank:
β€’ Foreign funds own about $30 bn worth of shares, or 40-45% of all shares.
β€’ All retail investor now have $30 bn in all Russian stocks.
β€’ That is, Russian retail investor will buy out $SBER foreign sales ONLY if they sell all other shares combined.
Read 4 tweets
RDV Analytics Profile picture
Jan 17
πŸ”₯ Recognition of #atom as #ESG investment can increase capitalization of $KAP by 6 times, RDV sources calculated.

#Uranium producers can follow path of raw material suppliers for GreenTech: World has begun to recognize #nuclear as green.


Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
After start of development of global environmental agenda, not only GreenTech companies, but also suppliers of raw materials for them, have risen in price. Development of #EV, #solarpanels, windmills and batteries required a large amount of raw materials.
Atom will be perceived on a par with other green technologies. This means that world will need more fuel for #nuclearpower plants - #uranium. Market can value its miners on par with lithium miners.
Read 4 tweets
RDV Analytics Profile picture
Dec 14, 2021
On sidelines and in society, they are discussing that a war may start in #Ukraine, and the #Fed will raise rates ahead of time. How will this end for the markets?

Spoiler alert: the Russian market could be halved. #MOEX

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
Judging by experience of falls of past years, Russian market may fall by another 30% -50% from current levels.

β€’ 2008 #RTS index fell by 80%
β€’ 2014 - by 50%
β€’ 2020 - by 50%

Market has corrected by 22% from the local maximum - potential for a fall by 30% remains.
2/
Growth of quotations this week is unlikely:

β€’ Quadruple witching - expiration of futures and options can become a point of trend reversal (as it was in March 2020).

πŸ’΅ Wednesday: Fed meeting. If #Fed announces acceleration of monetary tightening, it could collapse markets.
3/
Read 5 tweets
RDV Analytics Profile picture
Dec 9, 2021
Russian #SWIFT: how Russia prepared for the threat of disconnection from the global financial system. #sanction

The ideas of import substitution in #Russia began to sound back in 2014. And they also touched upon the financial system.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
Due to threat of financial #isolation of #Russia in 2014, the Bank of Russia Financial Messaging System (SPFS) was created.

SPFS is an alternative channel for transmitting electronic messages about financial transactions both domestically and abroad.
Clients of #Belarus, #Armenia, #Kyrgyzstan, #Cuba, #Abkhazia, South Ossetia are connected to SPFS. Also, the list of SPFS users includes subsidiaries of #VTB and #Gazprombank (owned by #Gazprom), registered in #Germany and #Switzerland, respectively.
$VTBR $GAZP
Read 4 tweets
RDV Analytics Profile picture
Dec 8, 2021
Olaf Scholz is elected new chancellor of #Germany. How can quality of relations between Germany and #Russia change?

Roads lead to... St. Petersburg!
#Scholz: "#Hamburg and #StPetersburg are twin cities and twin ports".

Scholz's "Petersburg connections" and the SPD.
Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡ Image
#SPD in #Hamburg has strong ties with #Russia and, in particular, with #StPetersburg. In 2012, Henning Voscherau became chairman of BoD of South Stream Transport AG, #Gazprom's project to build the South Stream gas pipeline bypassing #Ukraine, which was never implemented. #ONGT Image
Scholz was in contact with politicians and businessmen from Petersburg. He visited city more than once, including in 2016 to participate in German-Russian forum "Petersburg Dialogue". In summer of 2017, when Hamburg hosted #G20 summit, Scholz met with Russian President #Putin. Image
Read 7 tweets

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