RDV Analytics Profile picture
Mar 23 β€’ 5 tweets β€’ 3 min read
πŸ”₯ What does transition to sale of #gas for rubles mean? #ONGT

β€’ #Russia will continue to receive foreign exchange earnings: Europeans will buy rubles for euros, since they do not have their own rubles.
1/5
β€’ State is losing interest in a weak ruble. Weak ruble was beneficial to #Russia, since budget received revenues in foreign currency, but spent rubles.

β€’ Foreigners need to hedge risk of ruble appreciation. They will be forced to keep ruble balances or sell EURRUB futures.
2/5
β€’ Moscow Exchange will develop: both currency trading and bond market. The same #Gazprom will switch to loans in rubles, the Europeans will need to somehow place their rubles. $GAZP

β€’ Next, we may move away from the accumulation of "unfriendly" currencies in gold reserves.
3/5
β€’ Influence of Russian financial system is also growing. #Russia can impose #sanctions / freeze accounts of foreigners in Russian banks, block payments in rubles through Russian correspondent banks.
4/5
β€’ A world #gas benchmark in rubles (instead of current Dutch one in euros) may appear on our exchange, for example, on St. Petersburg Commodity Exchange. #ONGT

β€’ Next commodity for rubles could be #food.

‼️ Risk: Motivation to abandon Russian gas grows even more.
5/5

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More from @rdv_analytics

Mar 23
⚑️ How much could Chevron stock tumble?

A storm in Black sea stopped all $CVX oil exports from #Kazakhstan.

It turns out that 30% of Chevron oil production was heavily reliant on Russian #oil transportation system, which makes $CVX expose to russian risks.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
CPC transports oil from northwestern part of #Kazakhstan to Novorossiysk for further transportation by sea.
During 2021, CPC transported an average of 1.3 mn barrels of crude #oil per day, composed of 1.1 mn barrels per day from Kazakhstan (~75% of Kazakhstan's exports).
2/10
Due to storm in Black Sea, oil loading at sea terminal of Caspian Pipeline Consortium near Novorossiysk was completely stopped. Pumping of #oil through CPC system is still going on, but tank farm will be full by the evening, after which it will stop.
kommersant.ru/doc/5270959?fr…
3/10
Read 10 tweets
Feb 9
πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί To what extent does #Europe depend on Russian raw materials?

Policymakers fear the bloc is less prepared than Moscow. EU anti-Russian sanctions - shot yourself in the knee.
ft.com/content/26d7e3…
β€’ about 40% of natural #gas imports;
β€’ almost a third of crude #oil imports.

Eurozone gas inventories are below historical levels and prices have risen sharply in recent months, giving #Russia additional leverage over #Europe.

#OOTT #ONGT
β€’ about 40% of #palladium imports, which are needed for emission control catalysts; #greeneconomy
β€’ about 30% of #titanium imports, which are critical for #EU aerospace industry - #Airbus supplies about half of its titanium from #Russia. $AIR
Read 4 tweets
Feb 9
β‚Ώ The ban is canceled: new concept of #cryptocurrency regulation in #Russia.

Which Russian companies have already prepared?

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
For Russian investors, #cryptocurrencies have become important asset class – there are twice as many funds in crypto accounts as in brokerage accounts. Ban could have a negative impact on credibility of Central Bank and the authorities in general.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
πŸ” If you can't win - lead!

Central Bank, together with Ministry of Finance, found best way out of situation instead of a complete ban - to allow trading in #cryptocurrencies through banks, which will make all transactions transparent to Central Bank.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 8
πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡«πŸ‡· Main from press conference following the talks between the presidents of #Russia and #France

#Putin:

β€’ They don't do anything themselves, but they demand some kind of performance from us. Let's not play like that - on the situation around #NATO and #Ukraine.
1/6 Image
β€’ A number of #Macron's ideas, which are still too early to talk about, are quite possible to form the basis for further steps in #Ukraine.

β€’ If you like it or not, be patient, my beauty, you must comply - on #Kiev's attitude to #Minsk agreements.
2/6
β€’ #Russia's central concerns about security assurances have been ignored by #US and #NATO.

β€’ We agreed with #Macron to continue mutually beneficial cooperation in economy, politics, cultural and humanitarian spheres.
3/6
Read 6 tweets
Jan 19
❓ How will the confrontation between Russia and the West develop further?

Military operations, prolongation of the conflict, the split of Ukraine. Three opinions from RDV sources.

Thread πŸ§΅πŸ‘‡
πŸ‡·πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China and Russia will unite against #USA. #Putin travels to #Beijing on February 4. #Russia is fighting, #China is paying. China benefits because it weakens #UnatedStates and diverts its attention from itself.
1/3
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ•” #US will "eternally" delay resolution of conflict. Russia is trying to obtain guarantees to limit #NATO's eastward expansion, when there is a shortage of #oil and #gas. It will be difficult for #Europe to agree to Iranian scenario, other scenarios for Russia are not terrible
Read 6 tweets
Jan 19
Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Ryabkov speaks at the Valdai discussion club:

β€’ European security situation is critical.
β€’ #USA and #NATO are trying to isolate convenient points from #Russia's proposals for security guarantees.
β€’ Security talks were helpful.
β€’ Issue of security guarantees is urgent. We expect to receive an answer soon.
β€’ #Russia doesn't intend to change disposition of its military forces near #Ukraine.
β€’ We look forward to continuing the dialogue with #USA.
β€’ #Sanctions don't work and won't lead to policy change.
β€’ The #UnitedStates is deliberately heating up the situation by announcing existing scenarios for responding to #Russia's "invasion" of #Ukraine.
β€’ Moscow calls on the West to stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. This poses a threat to Russia's security.
#RussiaInvadedUkraine
Read 4 tweets

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