Kyle Orton Profile picture
May 3 38 tweets 27 min read
Thread: 3 May 2022: Day 69 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Pentagon says #China is avoiding direct military assistance to #Russia's attempt to erase #Ukraine ... for now
Truly bizarre for #Russia to have picked this fight with #Israel; so needless. Jerusalem had kept quiet for two months about Moscow's use of the "Nazi" pretext for the attack on #Ukraine and walked a fine line in general over the war, now forced to change
#Ukraine still refusing to pretend #Germany's policy is okay, and Berlin not taking it very well
Again, just extraordinary from #Russia: cultivating #Israel over the last decade was one of Moscow's greatest successes in the region, and even after this latest outrage the Israelis were trying to smooth it over; the Russians wouldn't let them
#Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson speaking to #Ukraine's Parliament
Yet another fire within #Russia, and a rather suggestive location
#Ukraine gaining in confidence as the situation on the ground continues to turn against #Russia, Kiev now adjusting its public posture to reflect the fact
Perhaps not concretely important, a good temperature check of where #Russia's relations are with its #Baltic neighbours
#Ukraine Presidential Adviser Oleksiy Arestovych notes the current #Russian messaging about "Jewish Nazis" is descended from the #KGB's active measures in the latter part of the Cold War, which was used to justify aggressive foreign actions domestically
#pt: "The old guard [in the USSR] fought far more tenaciously to avoid lifting the restrictions on Jews than any other group": that the Soviet Union collapsed soon after their lifting convinced the KGB this was "the triumph of Zionist subversion". kyleworton.medium.com/zionism-is-mak…
The right message from #Britain's Prime Minister to #Ukraine, and quite likely true, too, if we continue working at it.
The Roman Church has been worse than useless in this crisis. The Pope has heretofore refused to straightforwardly name #Russia as that aggressor in #Ukraine, merely mentioning the suffering, and now he has detected a perpetrator he thinks it might be #NATO
Sergey Glazyev, one of #Russia's ministers in the Eurasian Economic Commission, 22 April: Zelensky "fulfils the will of the Rothschilds ... to destroy the male population of #Ukraine" and "Ukrainian lads drugged by American-Nazi propaganda" are resisting the "liberation mission"
An absolutely demented hill for #Russia to die on, not just in itself but in the diplomatic effect it is having of damaging relations with #Israel, a state that can do the Putin government real harm if it throws its full weight behind #Ukraine
#Mariupol's mayor says 40,000 inhabitants of the city have been deported to #Russia, which is about 10% of the #Ukrainians who have been sent to these camps
#Russia eschewing communications with the #US, a fairly strong indicator Moscow is not "looking for a way out" or whatever the current Realist hopium is. The Kremlin intends to settle this with force.
Maybe #Russia's government is just Too Online, and has absorbed the habit of calling any and all foes "Nazis"
Whatever #France ever thought it was doing in keeping this channel open to #Putin passed the point of diminishing returns a looooong time ago. It's now getting beyond parody.
Always seemed likely #Austria could be brought on board, following Germany, but it looks like #Slovakia and, most notably, #Hungary, are going to drop their objections over the #EU oil embargo on #Russia, having been asking for exemptions only a day ago
Ah, we're doing this again. The same pattern of false-flags, blatantly unconvincing and utterly fabricated, is beginning in #Moldova now, just as #Russia did in the lead-up to the invasion of #Ukraine.
The issue of state sponsorship of terrorism aside, the point stands: there can not now be any doubt about what is happening to #Ukrainian civilians in the areas occupied by #Russia
The torment of #Ukrainian civilians in the #Russian-occupied zones should be at least a factor in decisions like how quickly we supply Kiev with the weapons to liberate these areas, and how willing we are to declare "peace" with any of these zones still under Russian control.
Zelensky statement last night said #Russia's Foreign Minister's saying Hitler was Jewish shows Moscow has forgotten the lessons of WW2, reminds of the strike on Babi Yar, the killing of Ukrainian Holocaust survivors, the rapes and massacres and deportations to use as free labour.
Zelensky asks if #Israel can maintain its relations with #Russia in a business-as-usual way
#Russia trying to claw back the ground it has been losing in #Bulgaria
Satellite pictures from Azovstal, the final holdout in Mariupol
#Britain intel:

- "Failures both in strategic planning and operational execution have left it unable to translate numerical strength into decisive advantage."

- "Russia's military is now significantly weaker ... as a result of its invasion of Ukraine."
#China continues to support #Russia in its assault on #Ukraine, down to the messaging
Highly, highly dubious of this - particularly that we would hear about it in advance - but one can hope.
#Israel has finally felt enough political pressure to pitch in with military help to #Ukraine, but is avoiding it as far as possible in order not to disrupt relations with #Russia, which are being maintained because ... well, we don't know that yet.
#Russia trying to integrate the areas of #Ukraine it has occupied, politically and economically. The refugees from this project are arriving in Zaporizhzhia, including in recent days those civilians allowed out of Mariupol.
Perhaps #Putin's great achievement: to have unified #Ukraine

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More from @KyleWOrton

May 4
Thread: 4 May 2022: Day 70 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Belarus is to stage a "combat-readiness check" with its whole army, though assures one and all they mean no harm, despite the state being virtually annexed by #Russia several months ago and being the launchpad for the attack on #Ukraine's capital
Read 35 tweets
May 2
Thread: 2 May 2022: Day 68 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Poland has become the first guarantor state to announce publicly it will not be party to a peace agreement with #Russia that involves the surrender of parts of #Ukraine's territory
Nikita Gorban, 31, a lab assistant at a hospital in Kiev, was kidnapped by #Russia's troops, taken 300 miles east to Kursk, where he was repeatedly tortured and beaten, until he was freed in a prisoner exchange. He is now recovering in Zaporizhzhia. bbc.com/russian/featur…
Read 39 tweets
Apr 30
Thread: 30 April 2022: Day 66 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Russia is in a very unhappy place. Little else that can be said.
#pt: If one was waging a war of aggression under the banner of "denazifying" a neighbouring state, eschewing fascist aesthetic might be considered a propaganda necessity.
Read 39 tweets
Apr 29
Thread: 29 April 2022: Day 65 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
"V" and "Z" monuments gone up in Maloyaroslavets, in European #Russia
Footage of a #Ukraine drone strike on #Russia's forces in Luhansk
Read 29 tweets
Apr 29
A church-commissioned German investigation said Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI's claims to have no personal knowledge of the child rape cases when he was running the archdiocese of Munich (1977-82) were not credible. He could be accused of wrongdoing in four. washingtonpost.com/world/2022/01/…
In one of the cases, Bendict, Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger as he then was, "accepted a priest into his archdiocese even after the cleric had been convicted of sexual abuse in a criminal court."
The priest had been imprisoned in the 1960s on charges related to a "large number" of sexual indecency cases with underage boys, but in the late 1970s, after he was released, he petitioned Ratzinger to be returned to clerical work, and was made a pastor
Read 5 tweets
Apr 28
Thread: 28 April 2022: Day 64 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Britain is getting the messaging right on this: an acknowledgement of the reality that there is a task in front of us, but a refusal to even hint at recognising #Russia's annexation of Crimea or any other part of #Ukraine
#Russia managing to forge a nation in #Ukraine, revitalise a West that had seemed in terminal decline, and eliminate its own levers soft/economic influence in a war meant to do exactly the opposite is quite something to watch
Read 65 tweets

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