Kyle Orton Profile picture
Jul 25 31 tweets 24 min read
Thread: 25 July 2022: Day 152 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: Ongoing "inconclusive fighting" in Donbas and Kherson: #Russia's "dilemma": devote resources to offensive in the east or defences against a #Ukraine counter-offensive in the west? Russia still struggling for manpower and extracting damaged equipment.
Eurovision 2023 to be held in UK on behalf of Ukraine - and search for host city has begun…
#Israel's Prime Minister Yair Lapid has refused to accept #Russia's framing of closing the Jewish Agency as a legal matter and has directed the Foreign Ministry to prepare options for political retribution.
Igor Girkin confirms #Russia's struggle to find manpower and the pressure #Ukraine is applying on occupied Kherson
Last night Trump said he told #NATO members when he was President that if they were not paying the 2% GDP for defence he told them "I will not come to your defence" if they were invaded by #Russia. "And the next day, money came pouring in."
#Russia's occupation authorities in Kherson making kids sing #Soviet songs. Healthy.
Essentially a race now between #Ukraine's counter-offensive in #Kherson and #Russia's preparations for "formal" annexation, all while the Russians struggle with manpower and logistics to cover offensive operations in Donbas and a defence buildup in Kherson
#Britain's L119 howitzers confirmed to be in #Ukraine.
Explains a lot about about what went wrong with "Better Angels" if this is the understanding of violence that was brought to it.
#Guatemala's President Alejandro Giammattei visited #Ukraine's President Zelensky in Kiev. This is the first time in twelve years a Latin American leader has visited Ukraine. A visa-free regime comes into effect between Guatemala and Ukraine this month.
#Russia's invasion of #Ukraine has provoked some worries in former Soviet Central Asia, especially in #Kazakhstan, the one state of the five that shares a border with the Russians, and is now quietly reaching out to the US and Turkey.… v @evangershkovich
#pt: The firmest public distancing #Kazakhstan has done from #Russia is refusing in June to recognise the independence of the occupied oblasts in the Donbas.

#Uzbekistan had already said the same thing in March:…
#pt: Walking the line, #Kazakhstan banned both anti-war demonstrations and public displays of the Z sign. The Kazakhs are wary #Russia will act on the claims to the northern part of the state, or indeed to all of it since Putin has said Kazakhstan is not a real country.
#pt: In April, #Kyrgyzstan's Foreign Minister Ruslan Kazakbayev met with the #US human rights envoy and signed a bilateral accord on aid. Eight days later, #Russia forced the Kyrgyz ruler to dismiss Kazakbayev.
#pt: There are #Russian military bases in #Kyrgyzstan and #Tajikistan, and an anti-ballistic missile testing site in #Kazakhstan. The top trading partner of all five Central Asian states is Russia. Remittances from workers in Russia makes up 33% of Kyrgyz GDP, 25+% for the Tajiks
#pt: "#Kazakhstan ... has increased its own defense budget by 441 billion tenge, or about $918 million", and is trying to forge an alternate trade route - since it gets 80% of its energy from #Russia - with #Turkey and #China.
In southeast #Ukraine, in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, #Russia's occupation regime is "an abyss of fear and wild lawlessness": civilians are randomly "disappeared"; those who survive have nearly all been tortured. Captured soldiers are tortured to death.…
#pt: The behaviour of #Russia's forces in the occupied zones of #Ukraine—a terrifying system of chaotic lawlessness overseen by criminals who disappear, torture, and murder at will—is what it has been since 2014. See @ChristopherJM's piece from June 2020.…
#pt: Also see this thread from December 2021: accurately predicts based on #Russia's past behaviour what it would look like in areas of #Ukraine that were conquered.
#France's prosecutor opened an investigation on 1 July into properties acquired in the country by oligarchs close to #Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin.
Beyond parody: former Chancellor of #Germany Gerhard Schröder has gone to #Russia, apparently for "vacation" - or so he says in front of the headquarters of the Russian state oil company he used to lead.
The #Taliban went to a conference in #Uzbekistan, a state that has been attacked twice from #Afghanistan this year by #ISKP. The Islamic State was displeased about the trip and used it as further evidence of the Taliban's jihadi backsliding… @LucasADWebber
#Russia has refused to "rehabilitate" human rights activist Sergey Mokhnatkin, who died in May 2020 from complications related to a spinal injury he suffered in a penal colony in Arkhangelsk. The case is dismissed; there was no "not guilty" verdict.…
The obvious assumption is that #Ukraine's HIMARS are at work again tonight against a #Russian ammunition depot in Donetsk, but have to see.

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More from @KyleWOrton

Jul 25
Sunak says #China is a "threat to our national security" and has "infiltrated our companies and steals" our property.

Truss says this is a convenient flip; as recently as a month ago, Sunak was advocating closer collaboration with the CCP.
Sunak notably caveats his new hawkishness on #China by saying there are areas that collaboration can continue, which is code for continuing to trying to profit from the CCP and provide it openings to exploit us.
Truss is plainspoken about cracking down on TikTok and generally changing things up with #China.
Read 6 tweets
Jul 24
Thread: 24 July 2022: Day 151 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update:

- #Russia is launching ongoing "small-scale" offensive operations in the Donbas, "focused on the Bakhmut axis", but it is "making minimal progress".

- Bizarre framing that Lavrov "expanded the scope" of Russia's attack on #Ukraine; nothing has changed
Good thread on #Ukraine's President Zelensky's visits to troops at the front, an important military-civilian trust-building exercise in themselves, a morale boost to troops, a way of gaining international attention, and of providing a contrast with Putin.
Read 28 tweets
Jul 21
Thread: 21 July 2022: Day 148 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia is attempting "small scale assaults" along the Donbas frontline in eastern #Ukraine, particularly targeting critical infrastructure like the power plant at Vuhlehirska, hoping to use the momentum gained for a move on Kramatorsk and Slovyansk.
Great piece on the #China-#Russia-#Iran axis: bound by a "hatred of the #US and its global alliance system", any successful policy dealing with these imperial and ideological projects must view them holistically, rather than as independent challenges.…
Read 54 tweets
Jul 20
Thread: 20 July 2022: Day 147 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia is making "minimal gains" in the Donbas offensive, but #Ukraine is "holding the line". Russian-occupied Kherson is continuing to come under pressure from Ukrainian actions, with bridges and other access points being threatened.
#Australia has been the largest supporter of #Ukraine outside of #NATO, and the Ukrainians have a great Ambassador Down Under, @AmbVasyl.
Read 25 tweets
Jul 19
Thread: 19 July 2022: Day 146 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia has struggled for manpower since the outset and the "problem is likely becoming increasingly acute". The Russians are stretched between offensive operations in the Donbas and trying to defend against a #Ukraine counter-offensive in Kherson. Image
#Hungary overtly celebrating keeping #Russia's Gazprombank off the #EU sanctions list
Read 39 tweets
Jul 18
Thread: 18 July 2022: Day 145 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia has been using troops flagged as "Wagner" in the recent fighting in Popasna and Lysyschansk to hold down the official casualty figures. To make up manpower, recruitment standards have been lowered, including recruiting criminals from prisons.
#Saudi purchases of #Russia's energy products has increased
Read 54 tweets

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