Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 12 48 tweets 34 min read
Thread: 12 September 2022: Day 201 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia is gone from #Kharkiv & "struggling to bring sufficient reserves" to reinforce #Kherson, where an "improvised floating bridge" started two weeks ago is unfinished and #Ukraine is hitting the Dnipro River crossings faster than they can be repaired
Great moving map shows the stark difference over six months, between March, when #Russia was at its height in terms of territory held in #Ukraine, and yesterday
A public declaration of treason three days before the lawful government returns is a situation nobody wants to be in. Some people in Vovchansk who collaborated with #Russia's "passportisation" hard at work on excuses tonight.
A positive sign: some of #Britain's universities decoupling from #China, reducing Peking's opportunities to steal intellectual property and share it with its rogue allies like #Russia and #Iran.
Good move. Damages #Russia, too. "Biden to hit #China with broader curbs on #US chip and tool exports" reuters.com/business/exclu…
There have been atrocities by #Russia in #Kharkiv, but they seem somewhat less in scale and systematism than what happened further west, partly because they were conscripts in these areas (who were abandoned during the flight), rather than "elite" troops.
Igor Girkin (Strelkov), #Russia's man in #Ukraine after 2014 and its resident doomer this time around (proven right on almost every point), sees all the same issues as Kharkiv in Vuhledar (Donetsk) and thereafter the road opens to Mariupol.
One of the most significant impediments for #Ukraine as it swept into #Kharkiv: the troops had to stop to clear a hedgehog out of the way on a road.
Natalia Humenyuk, a spokesman for the southern command of #Ukraine's army, told Channel 24 that there are #Russian soldiers in the occupied areas that have begun outreach, looking for ways to lay down arms, in the face of the Ukrainian advance. 24tv.ua/pidrozdili-oku…
Municipal deputies from 18 districts of Moscow and Saint Petersburg have signed a petition calling for Putin to resign.
Mamuka Mamulashvili (@Mamulashvili_M), the commander of the @georgian_legion, says what is obvious: "The Russian army is prepared to fight civilians and loot, not to confront [a professional] military"; it's command structure and morale are in tatters.
Missed this: Bernard-Henri Lévy (@BHL) was in Kharkiv yesterday.
FV103 Spartan armoured vehicles supplied to #Ukraine by #Britain have been in action in #Kharkiv as the territory is liberated from #Russia's occupation. t.me/TyskNIP/1782
"Vostok" battalion commander Aleksandr Khodakovsy argues that mobilisation cannot rescue #Russia: the issue is not troop numbers, but how they are used.

Suspect he is largely correct, but this is self-serving given the political costs of such an act.
More evidence of the sheer rapidity of the #Ukrainian advance - and the #Russian collapse - in #Kharkiv.
Margarita Simonyan calls for the destruction of #Ukraine's civilian infrastructure: if the state cannot be "liberated", it can at least be crippled so it is no longer a "threat" to #Russia. Putin's lead propagandist, Vladimir Solovyov, agrees.
What is notable, as damaging as #Russia's spiteful attacks on #Ukraine's power grid and so on have been since yesterday in revenge for #Kharkiv, is how limited they are: the Russians have lobbed missiles; they still dare not get their aircraft too involved
#pt: At least half the fighter jets #Russia lost during its mauling of #Georgia in 2008 were brought down by its own defence systems, and things have not significantly improved in the last 14 years.
#pt: Just yesterday, #Russia shot down one of its own jets in #Ukraine.

Between the Ukrainian air defences and Russia's own air defences having little or no friend-from-foe detection capability, Moscow has elected to make light use of aircraft. t.me/fighter_bomber…
#France does not seem to have learned its lesson with #Russia in #Africa.
Earlier today, witnesses within #Russia - in Rostov-on-Don, Azov, Taganrog, Novoshakhtinsk, Shakhty, Novocherkassk, Aksay, and Yeysk - all reported hearing a powerful explosion. It seems it was probably an air defence system in Taganrog. meduza.io/en/news/2022/0…
#India probably could have done with focusing on its own defence needs, rather than helping out #Russia.
#Putin's ruling United Russia part says it won 70.7% of votes in online voting in Moscow and 80.59% at polling stations. Doubtless all fair and above board.
#Estonia's Prime Minister noting that #Russia's official messaging apparatus has openly celebrated its war crimes in #Ukraine over the last few days.
#Russian soldier in an intercepted call says #Kharkiv feels like #Hostomel. Is shocked how accurate #Ukraine's artillery is, how fast the Ukrainians run through the Russian lines, and is alarmed at the scale of the body-bags the Russian medics are using.
Helpful map by @remilitari of #Ukraine's gains (in blue) against #Russia (pink) since May. Have said for a while that all war maps should include zones liberated, as well as the occupied areas: gives a far better sense of what is going on.
Xi Jinping will meet #Putin in his first trip outside #China since the Chinese unleashed the COVID pandemic. Gives a sign of how tight the Russia-China axis is drawing. reuters.com/world/china/xi…
#Putin's placeholder president Dmitry Medvedev keeping up the existential rhetoric against #Ukraine.
The #Ukrainian joy at liberation from #Russia's occupation is quite something to see
In #Crimea, the head of the #Russian occupation administration Sergey Aksyonov has threatened to prosecute anyone who shouts pro-#Ukrainian slogans, or sings nationalist songs or hymns. theins.ru/news/254959
Douglas MacGregor, Tucker Carlson's favourite analyst of Russia's war on Ukraine, is as flagrantly wrong here as it is possible to be about the situation. MacGregor is also a devoted antisemite, so reality is not really his forte.
RUMINT that #France will be stepping up support to #Ukraine.
#Ukraine's General Staff said in a statement that #Russia has "suspend[ed] the sending of new, already formed units into" Ukraine, citing morale issues after *gestures at everything*. ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/357…
#Bulgaria is sending medical packages for 35,000 soldiers in #Ukraine.
"'The #Russians are in trouble [after #Kharkiv],' one U.S. official said bluntly. 'The question will be how the Russians will react, but their weaknesses have been exposed and they don’t have great manpower reserves or equipment reserves'." washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Let's see: #Russia has largely avoided the use of long-range strategic bombers in #Ukraine for good reason so far.
Arms From Down Under: Australia’s Aid To Ukraine oryxspioenkop.com/2022/07/arms-f…
#Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan spoke with #Putin tonight about the escalation with #Azerbaijan.
Potentially time for #Russia to allow just a little bit of panic.
#Australia's contribution helping #Ukraine liberate its territory from #Russia's occupation.
More signs #Ukraine is preparing to make inroads into the #Donbas

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More from @KyleWOrton

Sep 11
Thread: 11 September 2022: Day 200 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Ukraine has "continued to make significant gains in the Kharkiv region" over the last 24 hours. Also notes that #Putin has lied about exports of grain from Ukraine.
#Putin's warlord-president of #Chechnya, Ramzan Kayrov, coping very hard and threatening further conquests in #Ukraine. Interestingly, this comes after Kadyrov appeared to say he was resigning.
Read 53 tweets
Sep 10
Thread: 10 September 2022: Day 199 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update takes note of #Ukraine's advances against #Russia in the Kharkiv Oblast, which the Russians had only lightly defended; there was also likely an element of surprise. The Ukrainians are pressing on in Kherson, too. Image
#Ukraine has liberated Kupyansk, the crucial city of #Russia's occupation administration in #Kharkiv. Her troops can be seen here in the city centre.
Read 41 tweets
Sep 5
Thread: 5 September 2022: Day 194 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia's "main effort in #Ukraine almost certainly remains its Donbas offensive", rather than reinforcing against the counter-offensive in Kherson. Moscow has had "the most success" in Donetsk recently, but it is still advancing only 0.5 miles per week. Image
Horseshoe theory in action: "Progressive International" leader supporting the nationalist protests in #Czechia and their #Russia-friendly demands to cease support to #Ukraine and restore economic relations with Moscow. Image
Read 15 tweets
Sep 4
Thread: 4 September 2022: Day 193 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia continues to suffer "combat fatigue and high casualties" in #Ukraine, leading to low morale and "discipline issues". Problems with pay is a big issue for the Russian Army, as well as lacking basics like food, arms, and even uniforms.
Great map by @bradyafr of #Ukraine's use of HIMARS to ravage #Russia's logistics system.
Read 28 tweets
Sep 3
Thread: 3 September 2022: Day 192 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Ukraine's "offensive operations" around #Russian-occupied Kherson advance "on a broad front". The operation has "limited immediate objectives", but exploits Russia's weaknesses, and forces Moscow into a choice over deployment of its stretched forces.
Essentially an "Honest Trailers" version of a Russian recruitment video.
Read 36 tweets
Sep 3
Very interesting: Photograph surfaces from #Iran showing three of #Al_Qaeda's most important leaders: Sayf al-Adel, Abu Muhammad al-Masri, and Abu al-Khayr al-Masri. Picture must be from before 2015, when Abu al-Khayr left for Syria. Doesn't look much like house arrest, does it? ImageImage
#pt: From 2018: "Examining Iran's Long Relationship with Al-Qaeda" kyleorton.co.uk/2018/10/26/exa…
#pt: #Al_Qaeda leader Abdullah Rajab Abdurrahman (Abu al-Khayr al-Masri) allegedly worked on fissile material while he was in #Iran. After Abu al-Khayr left in 2015, he went to #Syria, where, in 2017, he became the first kill of the US R9X ("ninja bomb"). kyleorton.co.uk/2017/02/27/al-…
Read 4 tweets

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