Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 20 53 tweets 34 min read
Thread: 20 September 2022: Day 209 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Russia "officially" preparing to "annex" the Donbas in eastern #Ukraine.

Should be noted, the Russians had such plans in Kherson and Kharkiv, which were derailed by the Ukrainian guerrillas before the Army liberated Kharkiv.
Imprisoned #Russian oppositionist Alexey Navalny comments on that video of Yevgeny Prigozhin recruiting prisoners for the war on #Ukraine. Sees it as a clear sign of the disintegration of the Army and notes such recruits can only make it worse.
#Russia's "Wagner" (GRU) losing the cyber war, as well as the actual war, to #Ukraine.
#Ukraine is pressing ahead on the #Kherson front: there is a steady gain of territory, tying down #Russian troops even as the Donbas is threatened, and the long-range HIMARS strikes continue to be accurate and devastating to the Russian logistics system.
One of the victims of #Russia's atrocities in #Izyum: Serhii Sova.
#US open to supplying more modern tanks to #Ukraine, and will continue coordinating the supply of Soviet-era tanks.
What the #Russians did to the #Sri_Lankans they captured in Kharkiv is grotesque.
A lot in this thread and article from Oleg Zhdanov, but the escalation of #Ukrainian airstrikes is particularly notable. Does not seem to have come with serious losses, unlike #Russia's attempt to step up air power, which has led to a LOT more losses.
Clearly true. If #Ukraine liberates zones #Russia claims as "annexed", sets a precedent that makes #Crimea easier. Of course, the Russians might never even find the window to stage the "annexation": the guerrillas and ZSU disrupted the last plans.
Very Tolkienesque in spirit to recombine the universe he created for the present. Tolkien created "Lord of the Rings" from elements of medieval world and - though he always denied it - the Second World War he lived through.
Interesting report that #Russia is using special forces as "barrier troops".
Public announcement by #Russia's puppet administrator in #Kherson, Volodymyr Saldo, of plans for "annexation".
Bizarre goings on at a bank in Kutaisi, #Georgia, which has been taken hostage.
Chairman of #Estonia's National Defense Committee, Raimond Kaljulaid (@PRB_Raimond), bluntly describing preferred approach to #Russia: hoping to weaken it, militarily and economically for decades in #Ukraine; decouple from energy; keep out its tourists.
Interesting for a senior official to compare #Estonia's predicament with #Russia to #Israel's situation surrounded by Arab states that meant to destroy her. #Ukraine's President Zelensky has, in less stark language, said the same thing many times.
Extraordinary video of #Russia raining incendiary munitions on the village of Ozerne in the Donetsk Oblast.
Some time-sensitive fundraising campaigns for #Ukraine if you're able to help: for drones, night-vision goggles, electronic jamming equipment, winter clothing, and humanitarian supplies.
Gives a sense of the religious nature of the #Russian leadership's motivations. This picture originally - as far as I know - was created by Islamists, with the green flag of Islam in place of Russia's.
Pentagon says it is interpreting the Prigozhin video recruiting prisoners in the same way as everyone else: a sign of deep trouble in #Russia's Army.
#Turkey's ruler Recep Tayyip Erdogan said after meeting #Putin "he is actually showing me that he's willing to end this [war in #Ukraine] as soon as possible ... because the way things are going right now are quite problematic".

That is one view.…
One of the prisoners #Russia has thrown into #Ukraine discusses the experience, including the one week of "training" before deployment.
#Russia sending a bill to the Duma that could lead to ten years in prison for refusing combat orders, and - in that wonderfully circular way dictatorships have - the Kremlin is currently recruiting for the war on #Ukraine from the prisons.
Russian theatre actor Sergey Puskepalis killed in a road accident in Rostov while delivering equipment for the war on #Ukraine
#Putin to make a televised address tonight, probably on the proposed "annexation" of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.
Even before the #Ukraine invasion, when #Russia could devote what it wanted to #Syria, it made one effort to challenge the #US, and got 200 people eradicated, responding meekly by disowning the "Wagner" forces, so ...
Possible #Putin will use the "annexation" of the Donbas, and #Ukraine's encroachments into "Russian territory", as the workaround to get to general mobilisation, but all the reasons he hasn't done it so far would remain: extremely dangerous to his regime.
During the Feb. 21 televised Security Council meeting, one of the most insane pieces of #Russia's messaging ahead of the invasion, #SVR head Sergey Naryshkin said the Donbas would be annexed. This was a pre-record, but this "slip" got left in.
The Prime Minister of #Estonia - a state once "annexed" by Moscow using a sham referendum - sets out what will hopefully be the collective Western position: paying no attention whatever to #Russia's "annexation" claims in eastern #Ukraine.
#US Department of Justice official Andrew Adams recommends to Congress at a Senate hearing that, in response to #Russia's signalling it will "annex" the Donbas, seized Russian assets be turned over to #Ukraine to assist against Russian aggression.
#Russia's puppet "republic" in Luhansk, in eastern #Ukraine, has announced it will hold a "referendum" on being "annexed" to #Russia from 23 to 27 September.

The "Donetsk People's Republic" has since announced it will do the same on the same dates.
Perhaps I missed it, but the argument is not that "#Russia will just have to concede". It is that by continuing to supply #Ukraine, the Russian Army and its occupation authorities can be shattered. Moscow's "view" is then quite irrelevant.
#Ukraine's Foreign Minister says #Russia's "sham 'referendums' [to annex territory] will not change anything. ... Ukraine has every right to liberate its territories and will keep liberating them whatever Russia has to say."
#Putin's speech delayed ...
Sergei Markov, one of Putin's factotums, says the speech has been postponed until tomorrow.…
#Ukraine's General Staff reports that #Russia is going to send soldiers of the 217th Guards Airborne Regiment from #Syria to Ukraine.…
Erdogan says #Turkey will not recognise #Russia's "annexation" of areas of eastern #Ukraine.
A #Russia flight went (via #Armenia) to #Iran, potentially to pick up drones.
#Putin's warlord-president of #Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, is beyond parody.
#Russian soldier in Donetsk: the situation is "so fucked", but if he retreats "our own are there [to] shoot". Says #Ukraine's troops are all around them and there are a "fuckload" of Russians dead, inc his commander. Mentions Russian soldiers raping women.
Shahed-136 drones from #Iran have now been seen used by #Russia in the Mykolaiv Oblast of #Ukraine.

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More from @KyleWOrton

Sep 21
Thread: 21 September 2022: Day 210 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
The former rector of the Moscow Aviation Institute, Anatoly Gerashchenko, had a "tragic accident" on Sept. 21, he "fell" - indeed, "flew" - down several flights of stairs and "received injuries incompatible with life".…
#Putin's delayed speech, delivered this morning, rambled through the war being necessary to stop #Ukraine having nukes, #NATO running Kiev's army and refusing peace, Novorossiya, neo-Nazis, and annexing the Donbas, to announce partial mobilisation.
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Sep 19
Thread: 19 September 2022: Day 208 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: "#Russia has highly likely lost at least four combat jets in #Ukraine within the last 10 days", a total of 55 since the invasion began. A "realistic possibility" this is because Moscow has stepped up airstrikes, and still lacks air dominance. Image
The "refusenik" problem within the #Russian Army is clearly at an operationally significant level.
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Sep 19
The final journey of Her Majesty Elizabeth II, by the Grace of God, Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and of Her other Realms and Territories, Head of the Commonwealth, Defender of the Faith. Image
The Canadian Mounties leading the military contingent from the Dominions in the funeral procession for Queen Elizabeth II. Image
An appropriately grand spectacle for the final journey of the anointed of God. Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 15
Thread: 15 September 2022: Day 204 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
#Russian soldier talking to his wife is somewhat unimpressed with the commanders and even less impressed with the #Chechen Kadyrovtsy, the "Akhmat", who "fucked off (i.e. ran away), the fucking cowards" as the #Ukrainians closed in.
In #Mariupol overnight, #Ukrainians sang the national anthem in Liberation Square, knowing it can get them arrested and worse by the #Russian occupation authorities in the city. A sense that liberation is coming is spreading.
Read 45 tweets
Sep 14
Thread: 14 September 2022: Day 203 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update notes the confirmation that #Russia is using #Iran's Shahed-136 drones, which have a range of 1,500 miles and were used in the attack on the MT MERCER STREET merchant tanker on 3 July 2021. Seems Moscow is using them for tactical strikes, not long-range.
Talk in #Georgia of opening a second front while #Russia is tied down in #Ukraine to liberate the occupied areas in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

If you want to challenge for Russian-protected territories, now is the moment. (See also: #Azerbaijan.)
Read 59 tweets
Sep 13
Thread: 13 September 2022: Day 202 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia's 1st Guards Tank Army (1 GTA), "one of the most prestigious" units, operating under the Western Military District, "had not been fully reconstituted" before #Ukraine began the #Kharkiv counter-offensive; has now suffered further "heavy" losses. Image
#Russia "recently requested to purchase ammunition for its Uragan rocket artillery from #Tajikistan, along with shells for Pion howitzers and armored personnel carrier (APC) engines."…
Read 40 tweets

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