How the EU provides lifebelts for autocratic regimes
My latest piece published by @IPGJournal on the saga of #EU financial penalties for #Hungary and why the story will end with a weak compromise.
Key arguments in THREAD below 1/19
@gmfus @GoodLobbyProfs
ips-journal.eu/topics/democra…
My latest piece published by @IPGJournal on the saga of #EU financial penalties for #Hungary and why the story will end with a weak compromise.
Key arguments in THREAD below 1/19
@gmfus @GoodLobbyProfs
ips-journal.eu/topics/democra…
2/19
Over the past two years the European Commission significantly improved its toolkit designed to enhance #RuleOfLaw & impose sanctions over Member States disregarding fundamental EU values.
Over the past two years the European Commission significantly improved its toolkit designed to enhance #RuleOfLaw & impose sanctions over Member States disregarding fundamental EU values.
3/19
The suspension of #ERRF/#RecoveryFund & the triggering of the #ConditionalityRegulation against Hungary’s government left the impression that the Commission drew its lessons from its decade long failure.
The suspension of #ERRF/#RecoveryFund & the triggering of the #ConditionalityRegulation against Hungary’s government left the impression that the Commission drew its lessons from its decade long failure.
4/19
The suspension of the EUR 5.8 bn #RecoveryFund and the prospect of further EUR 7.5 bn financial penalties under the #ConditionalityRegulation started shaping 🇭🇺 governmental behaviour as early as June. And the #Orbán regime became increasingly cooperative, for good reasons
The suspension of the EUR 5.8 bn #RecoveryFund and the prospect of further EUR 7.5 bn financial penalties under the #ConditionalityRegulation started shaping 🇭🇺 governmental behaviour as early as June. And the #Orbán regime became increasingly cooperative, for good reasons
5/19
Hungarian state finances are in worse shape than in 2008-2009, the country's need for external funding is huge and imminent & gaining access to external funding is essential for the 🇭🇺 government to avoid a downgrading of its credit ratings and a potential mid-term #default.
Hungarian state finances are in worse shape than in 2008-2009, the country's need for external funding is huge and imminent & gaining access to external funding is essential for the 🇭🇺 government to avoid a downgrading of its credit ratings and a potential mid-term #default.
6/19
While the Hungarian anti-corruption measures proposed to satisfy the @EU_Commission and convince it about scrapping the #ConditionalityRegulation procedure are barely satisfactory, based on the words of @JHahnEU ...
While the Hungarian anti-corruption measures proposed to satisfy the @EU_Commission and convince it about scrapping the #ConditionalityRegulation procedure are barely satisfactory, based on the words of @JHahnEU ...
7/19
the @EU_Commission appreciates the efforts of the 🇭🇺 GOV and appears to be ready to close the conflict with a compromise if the #Orbán regime provides enough guarantees that may allegedly safeguard EU financial interests in Hungary from rampant political corruption
the @EU_Commission appreciates the efforts of the 🇭🇺 GOV and appears to be ready to close the conflict with a compromise if the #Orbán regime provides enough guarantees that may allegedly safeguard EU financial interests in Hungary from rampant political corruption
8/19
This approach of the @EU_Commission is understandable if one considers short-term realist arguments.
This approach of the @EU_Commission is understandable if one considers short-term realist arguments.
9/19
First, the Hungarian regime has already demonstrated that it is ready to block strategic European decisions with regard to #Russia, hence the European Commission may be reluctant to push #Orbán into a political war.
First, the Hungarian regime has already demonstrated that it is ready to block strategic European decisions with regard to #Russia, hence the European Commission may be reluctant to push #Orbán into a political war.
10/19
Second, the European Commission is definitely not interested in a Member State defaulting; thus, it has to keep the Hungarian economy afloat, which is severely limiting its policy options as well as the credibility of its threats vis-á-vis the #Orbán regime.
Second, the European Commission is definitely not interested in a Member State defaulting; thus, it has to keep the Hungarian economy afloat, which is severely limiting its policy options as well as the credibility of its threats vis-á-vis the #Orbán regime.
11/19
Third, even if the #Commission would be committed to playing hardball with Orbán and propose the suspension of EUR 7.5 bn to the @EUCouncil, it is uncertain whether Member States will let the Commission proposal fly or fail.
Third, even if the #Commission would be committed to playing hardball with Orbán and propose the suspension of EUR 7.5 bn to the @EUCouncil, it is uncertain whether Member States will let the Commission proposal fly or fail.
12/19
Following the outcomes of the #Italian elections, the resurrection of the Polish-Hungarian anti-EU alliance, and the continuous existence of Central European solidarity, the chances of imposing financial sanctions on #Hungary appear to be rather weak in the #Council.
Following the outcomes of the #Italian elections, the resurrection of the Polish-Hungarian anti-EU alliance, and the continuous existence of Central European solidarity, the chances of imposing financial sanctions on #Hungary appear to be rather weak in the #Council.
13/19
What could the @EU_Commission do to avoid the accusations that it once again makes a foul compromise, giving-up real leverage over the Hungarian government for smoke and mirrors?
What could the @EU_Commission do to avoid the accusations that it once again makes a foul compromise, giving-up real leverage over the Hungarian government for smoke and mirrors?
14/19
It should recognize that whatever is promised by Orbán with regard to the independence of the new #IntegrityAuthority, at the end of the day, the institution will operate in a politically deeply biased constitutional framework which will fundamentally determine its leeway.
It should recognize that whatever is promised by Orbán with regard to the independence of the new #IntegrityAuthority, at the end of the day, the institution will operate in a politically deeply biased constitutional framework which will fundamentally determine its leeway.
15/19
Acceptable institutional guarantees can only be found outside of the Hungarian legal and constitutional system, at the level of the European Union.
Acceptable institutional guarantees can only be found outside of the Hungarian legal and constitutional system, at the level of the European Union.
16/19
Even if access to EU-funds cannot be legally conditioned to joining @EUProsecutor, the Commission should insist that — given the rule of law situation in #Hungary —
Even if access to EU-funds cannot be legally conditioned to joining @EUProsecutor, the Commission should insist that — given the rule of law situation in #Hungary —
17/19
the only acceptable guarantee in exchange of the termination of the #ConditionalityRegulation procedure is actually Hungary joining the #EPPO.
@EUProsecutor
the only acceptable guarantee in exchange of the termination of the #ConditionalityRegulation procedure is actually Hungary joining the #EPPO.
@EUProsecutor
18/19
That could be a significant achievement on the @EU_Commission end and perhaps a real game changer regarding #Hungary’s #authoritarian track. Whether the Hungarian government is desperate enough to make this concession, is to be seen.
That could be a significant achievement on the @EU_Commission end and perhaps a real game changer regarding #Hungary’s #authoritarian track. Whether the Hungarian government is desperate enough to make this concession, is to be seen.
19/19
But without exploiting the opportunity offered by #EPPO and pushing the #OrbánRegime hard, the @EU_Commission is just heading once again to a bad compromise that will keep the EU’s non-democrats on a badly needed external lifeline
But without exploiting the opportunity offered by #EPPO and pushing the #OrbánRegime hard, the @EU_Commission is just heading once again to a bad compromise that will keep the EU’s non-democrats on a badly needed external lifeline
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