Thread by @DemocracyTalk

This day 3 years ago I gave a talk on the global decay and renewal of #democracy @VicParliament. Wow, it feels like a decade has happened since then, and we see major positive and negative trends:

An impressionistic (non-comprehensive) thread 🧵

In 2019 the dominant narrative was of alarming regression in democratic commitments, with a growing crop of neo-authoritarians, incl #Trump #Orban #Kascynski #Erdogan #Bolsonaro #Modi, and seeming ascendance of #Putin #Xi, spurring explosion of research
link.springer.com/article/10.100…

Obviously one of the biggest things to happen since 2019 is #COVID19
- The research tells us that functioning democracies showed resilience, while those already in trouble, and 'hybrid' systems and 'harder' authoritarian states, were hit hardest
See: taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/…

For more, see a great new collection by @JoelleGrogan and @alicedonald: Routledge Handbook of Law and the COVID-19 Pandemic
taylorfrancis.com/books/edit/10.…

See also on #COVID19, the COVID-DEM project, which curated analysis of the pandemic's impact on #democracy worldwide from April 2020-April 2022
- A treasure trove of over 3000 reports, blog posts, long-form research, videos, podcasts, + 140+ newsletters
democratic-decay.org/covid-dem

In 2019 I talked about the distinction between 'masterplan' v 'diffuse' democratic decay
- 'masterplan' scenarios incl #Hungary and #Poland where a systematic 'authoritarian playbook' rolled out to dismantle democracy - capture courts, hobble indep checks, media, civil society

- diffuse scenarios included #US #Brazil where a less systematic/different plan was in play and a less sophisticated legal veneer, but we still saw serious rhetorical attacks on institutions, undermining of indep instns and critical media (and in US, rampant gerrymandering)

What's happened since to countries I mentioned in my 2019 speech?
First, USA:
- #Trump ousted 2020
- Insurrection at Capitol on 6 Jan 2021
- #US counted as 'backsliding' by @Int_IDEA in Nov 2021 in its Global State of Democracy Report
theguardian.com/us-news/2021/n…

- Dobbs judgment ending S Ct recognition of abortion as fed right - July 2022
- Conspiracists + 2020 election denialists rejected in many US #midterms votes
- Democrats made democracy a central aspect of campaign (alongside reproductive rights + economy)
vox.com/policy-and-pol…

- Of course, the #midterms results in the USA have to take into account widespread and increasingly flagrant #gerrymandering
- It's not so much the elephant in the room as the elephant sitting on swathes of the electorate
cnet.com/news/politics/…

A good read here is Four Threats
The Recurring Crises of American Democracy
by @SuzanneMettler1 and @R_Lierberman
us.macmillan.com/books/97812502…

It's this that made the Biden's Summit for Democracy in Dec 2021 a frustrating exercise - there was a lack of reflection, with the focus mainly on re-establishing (hegemonic) US leadership of (what it decides as being) the 'free world'
- Video series: democratic-decay.org/summitup-summi…

Next, #Hungary, ruled by #Fidesz party since 2010:
- Govt re-elected for 4th term in Apr 2022 with 2/3 majority having gamed system in its favour and despite opposition unity
- But pushback continues, with protests against govt control of media, judges
washingtonpost.com/politics/hunga…

#PiS govt in #Poland narrowly won 2019 elections but in late October polls show its support at record low due to voters blaming the government – not the EU – for the freezing of Poland’s European funds due to #ruleoflaw concerns
- Next elections: 2023
notesfrompoland.com/2022/10/26/sup…

Pushback in Poland has been even more marked, with the most remarkable being the sustained resistance by judges, formerly seen as wedded to a narrowly technical vision of their role, awakened - and joined by their EU counterparts
Watch (from min 8.45):

In #Brazil, world's 4th largest democracy, Pres #Bolsonaro was ousted in the Oct election run-off against former Pres #Lula
- Tight result, 50.9% to 49.1%
- Bolsonaro did better than early polling
- Lula faces hard road
Background: suprema.stf.jus.br/index.php/supr…

#India's democracy downgraded 2021 by multiple international democracy assessment organisations, incl @freedomhouse and @vdeminstitute), provoking furious govt reaction
- the "world's largest democracy" no longer deemed a functioning democracy under Modi
bbc.com/news/world-asi…

Institutions like the Indian Supreme Court has responded weakly to executive aggrandizement, and the picture can look dire - see e.g.
academic.oup.com/book/42122
- But we also see growing civil society and grassroots pushback - Read e.g.
thewire.in/politics/india…

#UK's democratic system has been buffeted by sleaze, illegality, undermining of checks+balances, accountability institutions and freedoms (right to vote, right to protest) under Johnson/Truss/Sunak governments, prompting @ConUnit_UCL (pre-Sunak) to ask:
constitution-unit.com/2022/07/05/wha…

What might be some of the fixes for the #UK?
This is a useful piece looking at practical reforms: fpc.org.uk/leading-by-exa…

In my 2019 speech I pointed out 'bright spots' including democratic transitions in #Tunisia and #Gambia
- Tunisia's transition was halted by Pres Saied's self-coup in July 2021, introducing 'authoritarianism by decree'
- But thousands have been protesting
trtworld.com/africa/thousan…

- The Gambian transition continues, despite serious challenges
Read the excellent new collection The Gambia in transition: Towards a new constitutional order, edited by @DrSatangNabaneh @AdamAbebe @GayeSowe
pulp.up.ac.za/component/edoc…

Beyond the countries I mentioned in my 2019 speech, important examples incl:
- #Myanmar's coup in Feb 2021 - is it faltering?
aljazeera.com/news/2022/11/1…

- #Iran's ongoing protests - or revolution
Even the @TheEconomist (not my usual source for info on Iran!) is asking whether this really is a revolution
economist.com/films/2022/11/…

I can't finish without, of course, discussing #Ukraine and what #Russia's invasion means for its fledgling democracy (not to mention Putin's rule in Russia)
- See @Int_IDEA's recent report
idea.int/blog/supportin…

Kaczyński! Man, no matter how many times I write it I still trip over it