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Updates from Deir Ezzor:
• Regime forces face a major loss in al-Shula after an ISIS desert counterattack, reverting recent gains.
• the battle is so far is conducted largely by the Russian airforce to pave the way for a possible second phase of Iranian-supplied ground forces
• Regime forces face a major loss in al-Shula after an ISIS desert counterattack, reverting recent gains.
• the battle is so far is conducted largely by the Russian airforce to pave the way for a possible second phase of Iranian-supplied ground forces
*reversing
The ISIS counterattack also reversed some of the regime's gains in Sukhnah.
In recent weeks, Russian & IRCG are suffering direct losses on the hotspots from DeZ to rural Homs+Hama.
These & how recent military moves near Deir Ezzor are conducted indicate that the SAA is really impotent.
These & how recent military moves near Deir Ezzor are conducted indicate that the SAA is really impotent.
IRCG and Russians are taking losses, and the regime can't even hold recaptured areas. Important to bear in mind in critical places like the *border* & desert-exposed Deir Ezzor governorate.
In August, Hizbollah-aligned Mayadeen TV showed what it said the first footage released by Iran of direct IRCG involvement in fighting in Syria (in Hmaymah near Deir Ezzor (not the usual vague 'advisers') 20four.com/371988
According to this report, Hizbollah-aligned Mayadeen removed the video but you can see it here: 20four.com/371988
Lots of significant trends playing out in DeZ & eastern Syria, with huge implications for Syria in the coming year or two.
Including related to Nusra & pro-Iran alliances there.
Including related to Nusra & pro-Iran alliances there.
Multiple counterattacks by ISIS against both the regime and the SDF, in Hmaymah and Sukhna against SAA and in al-Suwar against the SDF.
Isis claims high casualties among SAA+militias near Sukhna. A Syrian opposition source says Sukhna has all but fallen. If true, this will frustrate Russia given Russian casualties inside Deir Ezzor to pave the way for Assad+Iran ground attacks there.
Big if true -- ISIS says it captured two Russian & three SAA soldiers in a two-pronged counterattack in which it's reportedly recaptured four small towns recently seized by the regime; claims it killed 65 soldiers & wounded scores of others.
Clearly these counter-attacks were timed to coincide with the speech of al-Baghdadi.
Aside from what Baghdadi said, that he's alive is itself an important message; to rejuvenate members who didn't hear from him despite big changes since his Mosul speech
Aside from what Baghdadi said, that he's alive is itself an important message; to rejuvenate members who didn't hear from him despite big changes since his Mosul speech
I bet that Hmeimim is frustrated with the regime's recent performance near Deir Ezzor.
The two attacks are separate from the one in Sukhna, where ISIS claims to have controlled all the hills overlooking the city
These events are very telling for the Deir Ezzor battle, as noted here.
Something to keep in mind when thinking about how to control such a governorate (can't be reliant solely on temp & short-termist heavy bombardment).
Something to keep in mind when thinking about how to control such a governorate (can't be reliant solely on temp & short-termist heavy bombardment).
Important related to ISIS blitz today in numerous areas across eastern Syria: the attacks inside Deir Ezzor & Raqqa were conducted after ISIS fighters dressed & acted like they belonged to the regime & the SDF, respectively. 1/2
In Deir Ezzor, a source says they established a checkpoint acting as Air Force Intelligence; they apparently managed to hijack a regime bus in the process & kidnap soldiers.
In Raqqa, in an area liberated by the SDF, they attacked from behind enemy lines & briefly controlled it.
In Raqqa, in an area liberated by the SDF, they attacked from behind enemy lines & briefly controlled it.
The offensives from Deir Ezzor to near Palmyra are huge, basically undoing much of the Russian/IRCG/SAA progress in recent weeks -- from Deir Ezzor to the borders of Palmyra (a long stretch).
Some of the areas affected:
ISIS recaptured Marat & Mazloum, where you might remember Russia built two bridges & lost a general in the process.
Clashes continue in Sukhna (liberated months ago) and ISIS has taken other smaller towns along the way.
ISIS recaptured Marat & Mazloum, where you might remember Russia built two bridges & lost a general in the process.
Clashes continue in Sukhna (liberated months ago) and ISIS has taken other smaller towns along the way.
If you follow this closely or know the area, this basically means the significant & widely celebrated gains indicating SAA 'broke' the siege & advanced toward DeZ & Iraqi borders are now under a very serious threat. It means RU/IRCG/SAA will have to refocus on this rear region
As mentioned above, Russia took a lead role in Deir Ezzor in an attempt to lay the groundwork for Iran-backed ground offensive, but that plan has cost both Iran & Russia high-level officers & it's now clear way more work is needed before they could race against the US there.
Recent gains are basically fragile; and this has huge implications for how the Deir Ezzor battle will be conducted. As predicted, the regime can't do Deir Ezzor.
The US, on the other hand, has underestimated the Deir Ezzor battle, which will be quite different (not least because it's a border province with tough terrain in some corners).
This whole thing is a joke.
This whole thing is a joke.
And we're not even talking about other complications, like Nusra cells.
Edition 99 of al-Naba has just dropped; with full transcript of Baghdadi statement; and details about "the Abu Muhammad Al-Adnani operation"
Naba says ISIS captured two Russian soldiers; three villages; seized control of mountains overlooking Sukhnah. Dozens killed etc
Worth re-posting the below, given the massive losses currently being suffered by the Syrian regime and Russia in the desert/valley areas in (south)eastern Syria.
