Thread by @pmdfoster

As @theresa_may prepares to deliver her speech at #CPC17 Brussels will be watching. They remember what she said in 2016... 1/Thread

Above all, they will remember this line on the European Court of Justice...

Viewed from Brussels, where EU law is paramount, it sounded like a far-reaching and radical declaration /3

It put the EU instantly into a hostile crouch that Mrs May exacerbated in her Lancaster House speech in Jan and Article 50 letter in March/4

Amazingly, senior UK diplomats still think May and her team did not understand fully the implications of what they were saying. /5

In Florence May took a big step towards unwinding that tension, capping off new diplomacy in July from Hammond on UK staying close to EU /6

But they will be watching closely how May addresses the folks back home. /7

telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/0…

They will discount somewhat for domestic audience, but will fundamentally want to see May stick to her Florence lines. In tone & content /8

There is no trust. And that includes May personally. A senior EU diplomat tells me May's 2017 election campaign "felt like UKIP" /9

Despite "constructive" tone of post-Florence talks UK officials warn detente is "extremely fragile". UK on glide-path to deal in Dec. /10

Which is why May's tone is important. Will we hear those nativist tones again on wages and migration? Will she rattle 'no deal' sabre? /11

The tone will be as important as the content, which will be domestic-focussed.

But when EU leaders at Oct EUCO, it will matter. Ends 12/12