Thread by @ejmalrai

Ex-Nusra (#AQ rebranded HTS) walked into its own death by taking a large territory in #Idlib and its surrounding. The defeat of large groups like Ahrar and Souqourv al-Sham (who showed little resistance) and the elimination of Zinki group will have deadly consequences on AQ.+

No doubt #Turkey asked Ahrar et al to stand down & avoid fighting (for now). It means #Ankara would be happy to see the end of its presence in #Idlib on the long term. For this, Erdogan needs to see a very large battle taking place first in the north between these groups and #AQ

Erdogan & Putin will have a meeting soon to discuss the #Kurds and #AQ in #Idlib. I expect hot spring in Idlib and a large offensive against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Abu Mohammad al Joulani's ambition (from ex-ISIS emir to AQ Emir to ruler of Idlib) is helping to end this phenomena.

This is why I said the other day that I am, for the 1st time, optimistic #Turkey will not stay forever in #Syria & will pull out following the defeat of #AQ. #Ankara will ask #Moscow to seek a national reconciliation because it won't be able 2 offer anything 2 its Syrian proxies.

#USA is determined to abandon the Kurds regardless who will control #Manbij or Al-Hasaka province. #Turkey is not replacing US forces once these leave the Kurds to their fate. The deal between #Damascus #Moscow and the #Kurds is near. More on this topic tomorrow in my article.

The $137 bn paid by #Qatar, the 10s of billions spent by #SaudiArabia, the extensive training given to "rebels", years of conspiracy by the #USA & #EU against the #Syrian people to destroy their country & create a jihadists chaos & a fail state vanished in days by #AQ offensive.