Brexit transition: on Monday 29th Jan, EU27 shd agree transition guidelines so talks on transition can start with the UK. Broad agreement exists that transition will be under all existing EU rules and laws. But this leaves plenty of difficult issues. Thread 1/10
First, how long will transition be? The Commission has suggested end 2020 – also the end of EU financial framework. UK can ask for longer but then it will have to pay more (which UK knows) & EU will argue UK no longer benefits from its current rebate in calculating how much 2/10
Could transition be extended? EU seem to think it could be extended by 1-2 years without hitting the legal problem that A50 can’t be used to agree a long term trade deal. Will this be clearly set out in the deal? May not be. 3/10
EU & UK have had initial discussions on existing trade deals & other international agreements that should end for UK on 29/3/19. EU suggests UK cd still be part of these: will third countries be ‘content’/pragmatic on that leaving tough new negotiations for after transition? 4/10
Will Gibraltar be part of transition if UK refuses to agree a new deal on joint sovereignty w Spain? UK will argue it’s a status quo transition, as with the 3rd country trade deals but this is high politics not logic so unclear how this will be resolved. 5/10
EU27 will clearly demand full respect of freedom of movement of people in transition and full rights/’settled status’ for those who come until the end of transition (whenever that is). UK will resist but has little bargaining power on this. 6/10
EU27 will offer some consultation on fishing quotas but that's all. UK will not be able to have transition in all EU areas except fishing. UK won’t be happy but EU will not back down: ‘no access to markets without access to fishing water’. 7/10
Will there be legal draft or certainty on transition by March? No. The UK wants to get as far as it can by March (before talks turn to trade) but no expectation of a legal draft by then – and certainty only once there’s an overall ratified deal. 8/10
Cd transition talks be disrupted if there are big disagreements over putting the phase 1 Brexit deal from December into legal form? Possibly, if it gets difficult on pinning down the N Ireland commitments – but the real rows on that shd come in the trade talks not transition 9/10
Cd clarity on future trade framework make transition details less important? Unlikely. Future framework may be vague, heavy lifting on trade deal will come later & UK isn’t heading to a ‘soft’ Brexit, even if May asks for ‘high alignment’ model (& EU isn’t offering one)10/10
Finally, once UK is out of EU and in transition, it will have lost much of its bargaining power. It won’t be able to revoke A50 & stay in the EU – then it cd only apply to rejoin EU, wd lose many of its current opt-outs. Future cliff-edge at end of transition will loom very large
