Thread by @CoppetainPU

I didn’t expect this blog post to attract so much attention. The range of reactions on Twitter has been quite revealing.

I hope this thread won't spoil it

1/12

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Lots of people interpret it according to their feelings about Brexit.

Remainers see it as proof that Brexit won’t work or just isn’t worth it.

Brexiters can argue it shows how much can simply be copied and pasted with minor adjustment.

2/12

That’s fine. My intention was to try and look at the facts, to illustrate what might be easy, and what might not. People are free to interpret the facts in any way they want.

3/12

My take? These two points, what I didn’t say, and what I did:

1a. What I didn’t say in the blog post is that in the scheme of things this should not be a deal breaker (except if there are big battles over tariff quotas and diagonal cumulation of origin, for example).

4/12

1b. The real deal breakers are the contradictory red lines such as an invisible border in Ireland without a comprehensive customs union.

5/12

2a. What I did say in the blog post is that this will take time and resources. This is one reason why I don’t believe a 21-month or 2-year transition/implementation/whatever period is nearly long enough.

6/12

2b. The political point is this: Lots of voters are fed up. We now frequently hear: “Why is it taking so long? Why don’t they just get on with it?”

7/12

2c. Almost no one, particularly on the Brexit side has explained that this stuff is ALWAYS complicated and time-consuming. Anyone who’s followed trade negotiations knows that.

8/12

2d. The worst advice voters received is not whether on balance it is better to leave or stay in the EU. There are valid arguments on both sides, whichever side we might personally go for.

9/12

2e. The worst advice voters have received is the idea that leaving can be quick, easy and painless, and that it is possible to devise “a Brexit that works for all” ie, all winners, no losers.

That’s just dishonest.

10/12

2f. Voters have a right to a real picture of what Brexit involves. Instead, no proper discussion about the pros and cons, only vague, meaningless reassurances from government and opposition: “A Brexit that works for all” versus a “jobs-first Brexit”.

11/12

2g. Nor has the government explained to voters exactly how much work is involved.

No wonder so many voters say “just get on with it”, without realising that “getting on with it” could take five to 10 years — if all goes well.

12/12 (Rant over)