Thread by @jonlis1

Now, here’s an interesting conundrum.

Barry Gardiner is right. We leave THE customs union and need A customs union which replicates it. And yes, Turkey-style CU is asymmetrical.

So we just ask EU for ‘customs union of equals’? Not quite.
1/

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2/ First, let’s clarify the problem. Say we agree a full CU outside EU. Because we’re in CU, we apply all EU’s tariffs. But because we’re not in EU, we’re formally a third country and don’t join EU’s trade deals.

3/ At the moment we don’t have a trade deal with NZ. EU is starting to negotiate one.

NZ wants elimination of dairy tariffs, which are currently up to 40%.

After NZ/EU deal, NZ will get zero tariffs on exports to EU - and therefore to UK. But on surface we won’t get same.

4/ That’s clearly a problem. So what do we do?

EU negotiates on behalf of EU, not third countries. Trade deals come under auspices of Common Commercial Policy (CCP), not customs union.

So we need to join CCP - or have associated membership.

5/ Would EU buy the idea? They may see it as cakeism. They may insist that we wouldn’t get to vote on final terms. We’d have less formal influence than EU members, and probably wouldn’t be able to veto an EU deal.

But they may also want added clout of UK economy & 65m consumers.

6/ Once again though, we’re completely trapped. Economically we need to be in customs union - and if we’re out of it we break terms of December’s joint agreement. We probably breach Good Friday Agreement.

7/ The best option is to stay in the EU.

If we leave the EU, we lose influence, and give away control. If we manage to win some back, that will come with strings.

This is the reality of Brexit. If people don’t like it, they should have the right to stop it.