Thread by @BrunoBrussels

Today a dangerous moment of brinkmanship.
EU leaders agreed in December that there no trade talks unless UK unless “all [withdrawal] commitments are respected in full and translated faithfully into legal terms as quickly as possible”. This is the anti-back-sliding ratchet.

So does May have to swallow EU demand, backstop protocol, on Ireland to talk trade?

“Backstop” protocol in the event of “no agreed solutions” will make Northern Ireland “operationally” part of the EU’s customs territory effectively changing UK’s constitutional and territorial order. Language will be creating "single regulatory space with no internal barriers”.

Have to note EU will privately press Ireland to accept UK offer of technical solutions to enable soft border. Commission bloodless/abstract about NI conflict (which it believes was solved by EU funds & some bits of paper) other EU governments understand importance of territory.

EC position raises some interesting questions.
If Brexit talks fail - and presumably would if the EU demands threaten UK territorial order - then the backstop protocol would fall.

Then how could EU enforce a different status for NI? You cannot change the territorial status of NI by fiat

It is no accident that Corbyn speech came this week just before Barnier’s push for a customs union for NI, potentially unraveling the UK. It’s all pressure for a similar UK-wide customs union. I think it’s a bad look both for the EU and Labour to be seen working this in tandem.

Governance”, disputes, punishment clauses and role of EU judges will be a big part of the text in “common provisions”
Draft expected to assert that ECJ is the ultimate arbiter of any disputes surrounding the agreement - a longstanding demand of the EU institutions.

EU governments are much more relaxed on ECJ role. In confidential internal meeting Belgium, usually among most doctrinaire on ECJ, accused Barnier of a “maximalist attitude” and called for “alternatives”. Expect change there