1) Earlier this week, the outgoing city manager detailed Toronto’s looming fiscal crisis, and the extent of its unfunded capital projects.
2) I’d like to focus on priorities, opportunity cost, and those $30B (billion – with a ‘B’) of unfunded strategies, plans and projects.
3) On this platform, I have often challenged the Scarborough Subway Extension, and the #GardinerEast ‘Hybrid’ alternative.
4) I have planning-related issues with these projects, as do I have issues with decision-making that has ignored/twisted/avoided evidence.
5) But as somebody who believes strongly in public investment, my concern is also what ELSE those dollars could be doing. Opportunity cost.
6) Those projects simply do not deliver the most public good for the precious BILLIONS of public dollars that they will consume.
7) And when dealing with public funds – at a moment when we are so revenue-starved – we must maximize societal, not electoral, return.
8) Now this is the 1.7 km section of elevated waterfront expressway that will be rebuilt at an estimated capital cost of $1.492 Billion. 
9) The last staff report that addressed the remove/boulevard alternative, estimated the capital cost for that option at $326 Million.
10) So based on those two figures, let's assume we are paying a $1 Billion premium to build the hybrid instead of the Boulevard.
11) Now remember that the Boulevard was preferred in terms of environment, city building, pedestrians/bikes, connectedness, land value…
12) …but Council chose hybrid largely based on driving time - to save a small share of downtown commuters 2-3 minutes, in 2031.
13) So we (public dollars….WE) are spending a billion dollars, on a discretionary basis, to save those couple minutes of driving time.
14) Money spent in one place means money not available to spend, and do good, elsewhere. What is the opportunity cost of that $1 Billion?
15) That $1 Billion could cover more than half of the $1.73B funding shortfall for capital repairs to TCHC’s aging housing stock.
16) That $1 Billion could pay for the entire East Bayfront LRT – last estimated at $520 million – with change left over.
17) That $1 Billion could cover 60% of the estimated $1.6B cost of the Eglinton East LRT, bringing better transit to Scarborough NIAs.
18) That $1 Billion could increase capital funding directed to the Vision Zero Road Safety Plan (2017-2021) more than TENFOLD.
19) Those are just four examples, there are many others – underfunded priorities that would meaningfully impact lives and wellbeing.
20) These projects above are all part of long-term plans, but as many others have noted, your budget reveals your true priorities.
21) This is what our choices on #GardinerEast would seem to tell us about our values and priorities:
22) That we value minutes of driving time over being a responsible landlord, and providing good housing, to tens of thousands of households.
23) That we value minutes of driving time over responsibly building out transit with land use plans and major development approvals.
24) That we value minutes of driving time over improving transit access and opportunity for Scarborough’s Neighbourhood Improvement Areas.
25) That we value minutes of driving time over making streets safer for cyclists, pedestrians, children, and seniors.
26) If these aren’t YOUR values and priorities, make it an election issue. Make it explicitly known to representatives and candidates.
27) If you want decision-making that is transparent, evidence-based, and shields staff from political pressure, make it an election issue.
28) Let @JohnTory and @Kathleen_Wynne know that more political pain then gain will come from gaming infrastructure for political purpose.
30) One further thought: the $9B of federal/provincial funding announced this past week makes these matters more urgent, not less.
31) These are one-time dollars, senior government largesse that won’t soon come again, they need to be directed to maximize public benefit.
32) These funds shouldn’t be used to paper over unjustifiable decisions, and inexcusable decision-making.
33) The larger the sums at play, the greater the opportunity cost of foregone alternatives. $9B. What is the cost of getting it wrong?
- End -
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