Thread by @startupdaemon

1) WHAT THEY WON'T TELL YOU ABOUT THE TECHNOLOGY OF THE FUTURE

While everyone's obsessed with blockchain, three other budding technologies are poised to change the world in unexpected ways.

When you read this thread, the future will never be the same again.

2) These are NOT predictions, so don't bet the house on them like you did with the bitcoin.

It's impossible to know if technological development and marketization won't be disrupted by political conditions, other emerging tech or the long-overdue economic winter.

3) Expect no Japanese sex bots, your domestic roboslave or drones delivering suspicious packages to your doorstep to be covered here - although these are very real technologies that can happen, they are not where the bread of the future will be buttered.

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4) Bigly disruptive change happens gradually, and then suddenly.

That's why just about no-one - even in SV and other innovation hubs - talks about these technologies, but they are very real and are already coming alive under the radar.

5) The Big Three (B3) technologies that are going to disrupt everything about the world are:
• autonomous electric vehicles (AEV),
• quantum-distributed computing (QDC) and
• compact fusion reactors (CFR).

The even Bigger Deal is that they will be happening together.

6) Oh, you've heard about self-driving cars before? Forget everything you think you know about any of the B3 because no.

By the time they come to the mass market, secondary tech will have advanced so much as to completely change the way you think they will be used.

7) Some CFR designs were first patented by @LockheedMartin a couple of months ago and seems they expect to have a working prototype by yearend 2019. This makes commercial viability possible by the mid-2030s.

thedrive.com/the-war-zone/1…

8) QDC isn't something you've heard about because there are few who've put the 2 and 2 of quantum hardware and distributed software together, but the foundational engineering work has already been done.

(I'll write about QDC on startupdaemon.net.)

technologyreview.com/s/610250/hello…

9) AEVs seem to have been just around the corner since forever, but this time really is different because enough training data. Every tech & car major is developing some form of electric and/or autonomous vehicle. So we can expect AEVs to be mass-produced by the 2030s as well.

10) The effects of technological change can be understood as:

- first-order - direct inputs & outputs (e.g. supply chains);
- second-order - interaction with behavior & technological ecosystem;
- third-order - incentives for further innovation.

Then, the Lindy Effect.

11) QDC is the real "cloud", your data residing not on @Google's server but on your neighbor's hard drive and backed up on devices all over the world.

Quantum-distributed computing will bring in the era of Universal Surveillance and the end of any illusion of privacy.

12) QDC means data storage & processing will be disintermediated and decentralized. Services like today's @awscloud & @googlecloud will be a thing of the past. But you won't be able to protect your data except off the network.

13) CFR (not blockchain or bitcoin) is what will make decentralization possible by decentralizing and decorporatizing the energy supply - and QDC will make it safe to install in your basement and on your boat.

14) The QDC>CFR innovation chain is a major instance of second-order effects, as QDC will accelerate materials development for miniaturization and robustification of CFR units, while also enabling extremely precise (and safe) automated controls for each unit after its deployment.

15) Batteries and other dirty forms of energy storage will go obsolete as CFR units become safer and compacter. This is much more likely to be the real solution to fossil-burn pollution than wind and solar because it renders storage & transmission problems irrelevant.

16) The widespread adoption of AEVs in the 2030s will not solve traffic congestion because:
- use will rise dramatically;
- human drivers will remain on the road;
- urban densities will increase (in part because AEV adoption);
- pressure for human-centric habitats.

17) Cars of the future will not be smaller because comfort will be a key feature of product differentiation and space is its most essential component.

18) AEV manufacturers, taxis and rentals will collapse vertically into a single industry, as car ownership in the developed world declines.

19) AEVs will intensify urban traffic substantially because effective pilot systems will increase speed of transport, decrease cost (because safer and higher use rate of shared vehicles) and therefore stimulate use (there will be more cars on the streets, not less).

20) Widespread AEV adoption will obviously eliminate pollution from combustion engines but increase particulate pollution because of greater traffic, especially in dense urban areas.

21) Urban areas will benefit from more space for residential construction and human-centric environments as parking spaces become obsolete.

AEVs will either be in motion, at maintenance & cleaning, or parked underground and in exurban storage areas.

22) Huge AEV fleets will be operated by manufacturers offering cars as a service and taking on insurance & maintenance (CaaS).

23) Owners will be able to share their cars on decentralized marketplaces or @Airbnb for cars rather than having to store them in a garage when not in use.

24) AEV ubiquity will disrupt the telecoms industry as vehicles become nodes for wireless networks replacing phone masts and cable Internet.

25) AEV companies will be able to sell real-time surveillance data from their fleets to advertisers, retailers and others.

This is one way Universal Surveillance will come to be.

26) The wide adoption of AEV and CFR will make short-distance air travel less attractive and long-distance air travel more affordable.

The first nuclear-powered aircraft were tested by the USSR in the 1960s and Russia is reportedly developing nuclear-powered cruise missiles.

27) Greater commuting distances will become viable because of AEVs as passengers no longer need to operate the vehicle and highway speed limits increase.

28) Overnight/intercity passenger traffic will increase as travelers are able to sleep or engage in other activities in an AEV.

29) AEV companies will become major media distribution channels because people will spend more time in vehicles and won't have to operate them.

Now you know why @Google, @Apple and even @facebook want to be at the forefront of AEV technology.

30) Car manufacturing will follow the path of mobile phones, with hardware becoming increasingly modular, commoditized and outsourced, while companies compete on comfort, safety and media features.