Thread by @jonlis1

After 2 years, PM still doesn’t understand Brexit or its power dynamics. She could have begun and ended with ‘has to be accepted by EU’. EU, including Ireland, have already, repeatedly, dismissed customs partnership. If that’s still all May’s offering, she’s toast- and so are we.

Just as May needs to be deepening her offer, Cabinet is forcing her to water it down. How many times must EU tell her that only a customs union & single market in goods for NI will erase need for hard border? Instead of slowing car down as it approaches cliff, she’s accelerating.

Incidentally, let’s get a few things clear about trade deals red line.

1/ Gov has already committed NI to align with Ireland on agri. That means either NI doesn’t join agri-based trade deals (US, Aus, NZ) or those deals don’t happen. No ifs, no buts. Open GB/NI border or Trump.

2/ Gov won’t be able to agree to most of our trade partners’ demands anyway. US will insist on reducing food standards, China will demand we scrap anti-steel dumping measures, India will require more visas for IT workers, Aus & NZ will want full liberalisation for meat exports.

3/ Each of these FTAs will take years, while Gov’s own research demonstrates they will be economically insignificant. Trade deals will never compensate for economic losses of Brexit.

In normal times that would be enough to end talk of them altogether. Nothing here is normal.

4/ If we really care about the totem of trade deals to satisfy our post-colonial vanity and insecurity, join customs union then negotiate services deals with third countries. (Sure, our economy will still be decimated outside single market, but it’s the emotion, stupid.)

Face it. Oncoming customs humiliation is poison of British exceptionalism. We still don’t understand we don’t control this process and never have. It doesn’t matter what we want. We can’t have it. That’s what it’s like to be a small power going against a big one. Get used to it.