Metrics matter. And the ratio between China's current account surplus and its GDP increasingly is the wrong metric for assessing China's impact on global trade, and particularly trade in manufactures.
cfr.org/blog/disaggreg…
cfr.org/blog/disaggreg…
China's current account surplus itself is mismeasured, largely because the services deficit is overstated.
There is no doubt there is a real and growing tourism deficit too. But the official data suggests that the bulk of the rise came in 14, which isn't all that plausible
There is no doubt there is a real and growing tourism deficit too. But the official data suggests that the bulk of the rise came in 14, which isn't all that plausible
a reminder - the rise in the tourism deficit in 2014 doesn't reflect a large increase in the number of Chinese tourists, but from a large change in the methodology China uses to calculate spending by tourism
and the new methodology over-counts
federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/f…
and the new methodology over-counts
federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/f…
Also think it is important to differentiate between China's impact on trade in commodities, and China's impact on trade in manufactures.
And to look at China's trade both relative to its own GDP and relative to the GDP of its trading partners.
And to look at China's trade both relative to its own GDP and relative to the GDP of its trading partners.
and don't worry, I have complaints about a few other large trading blocks too-- notably the euro area, and its 2017 net exports numbers ..
