Thread by @grantstern

Who's ready for a little game theory?

Ok.

If you said yes, this isn't the ***THREAD*** for you.

I'm just going to speculate about recent #TrumpRussia events here.

These aren't reports.

Just ideas.

Ok?

1) Sealed indictments?

By now there's a very good chance some have been filed as a safety valve to protect against any illegal firing of Mueller.

A sealed indictment survives the prosecutor who files it, if he's fired.

It could be amended (in theory) from time to time.

Sure.

2) RICO or racketeering conspiracy charges?

Seems pretty likely to me. @TheDemocrats outlined what such a proposition would look like in their federal lawsuit.

I predicted a RICO indictment by Mueller in #TrumpRussia in October.

But there's more RICO possibility than just that

3) Did you know obstruction of justice is a RICO predicate act?

Yep. It is.

Mueller could charge everyone who obstructed Congress' investigations and his investigations with racketeering or RICO conspiracy.

Congressional free speech immunity ONLY applies to legislative acts

4) Is Trump's demand to see secret evidence a good idea? Is it bad for the DOJ to show them?

NO, and maybe not.

Just think back to the way Acting AG @SallyQYates handled Flynn's lying to the FBI. She informed the WH because they couldn't change the outcome of that case.

5) Flynn pled guilty, got convicted, began cooperating, even though Trump tried to obstruct the investigation.

It's entirely possible that the DOJ is doing the same to Trump.

They may even be decoying him.

It may even be a legal trap, a sting or honeypot of sorts.

6) What seems obviously most important is keeping Deputy AG as the head of the #TrumpRussia investigation rather than allowing the President and his spineless Congressional allies to appoint a new boss for Mueller.

Trump can't get rid of AG Sessions because...

7) Sessions has too many friends in the Senate after 20 years there and they'll vote on any eventual impeachment charges.

But Rosenstein's job overseeing Mueller is crucial because he's got a very special power in his hands as Acting AG in the #TrumpRussia investigation.

8) Deputy AG Rosenstein has the authority to overrule the DOJ's policies about not indicting a sitting president if Mueller has surefire evidence of a crime.

Policies are not like regulations, which have a rulemaking process and the force of law.

9) The DOJ's Office of Legal Counsel created that policy, and for all we know, they have created a new policy sometime in the last year that is applicable to the current situation.

Certainly, nobody would argue that President Trump is too busy (golfing) to defend a criminal case

10) But there are other aspects to conspiracy charges or RICO charges or RICO conspiracy charges that might not require Mueller to directly indict Trump, but to force him from office all the same in the #TrumpRussia case.

Nixon had the same problem in Watergate.

11) The Unindicted Co-conspirator

If Mueller names Trump in a series of criminal indictments as an unindicted co-conspirator, he could be called to testify against his own gang.

Even worse, if Muller proves a #TrumpRussia conspiracy he's involved in and gets convictions...

12) Then, Trump would be placed in the position of not defending his own case by remaining in office, while all of the elements of the crime are proven in court against "all the best people"

This would leave Trump without a legal defense and likely facing impeachment like Nixon

13) Or, Trump might have to climb the stand and be forced to plea the 5th Amendment against self-incrimination repeatedly and in public.

And then face all of the above problems.

Once a court establishes facts, you can't challenge them. It's called collateral estoppel.

14) A smart legal strategist uses collateral estoppel, obtaining judgments that establish facts, in one case, to feed another.

By the time you get to the top, there's nothing left to argue except:

Does what this person did constitute a crime?

15) Trump's team is already more interested in creating fiction, diversion and spreading blatant misinterpretations of the law, rather than challenging the facts about #TrumpRussia as laid out in news reports, videos or guilty pleas.

16) Mueller's noose has to be pretty tight right now, since we've seen public evidence of crimes being committed by members of his administration, transition, and campaign.

The #TrumpRussia case may be ready for major action pretty soon since the president doesn't want to sit...

17) For any interview and that seems to be the focal point of all of their activities lately.

Trump is drumming up excuses to skip a voluntary interview with his lawyers present in the hopes that he can fight a Grand Jury subpoena until DOJ policy precludes indictments...

18) From happening too close to partisan elections, which is the source of Giuliani's made up, but not totally arbitrary deadline of early September.

But #IMHO this is a miscalculation by team Rudy/Trump.

19) Because a prosecutor doesn't need any Grand Jury testimony or interviews to indict someone on criminal charges.

All they need is facts...

Mueller has a lot of those in the #TrumpRussia Probe.

THE

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