Germany and European immigration questions are back in the news. I happen to have some new research out today on asylum seeker or refugee Islamist plots launched in Europe between 2014 and 2017. Some of the findings to follow… (1/n)
44 refugees or asylum seekers have been involved in 32 Islamist plots in Europe since January 2014. They led to 814 injuries and 182 deaths. All perpetrators were men. These plots took place in 12 different countries, though Germany was most frequently targeted. (2/n)
Over the past four years, 16% of Islamist plots in Europe featured asylum seekers or refugees. Overall, the threat remains primarily homegrown. However, there are exceptions. In Germany, for example, the threat is largely from recent arrivals (and often Syrian in origin). (3/n)
Twenty-four of the 44 individuals registered as asylum seekers (55 percent); a further 11 were given refugee status (25 percent). The status of the other nine (20 percent) was unclear. (4/n)
Of the 24 asylum seekers, at least nine had their applications rejected but remained in Europe regardless. Of these nine, four committed their attack: including the vehicular plots in Berlin and Stockholm. (5/n)
66% of the plots had direct ties to ISIS – either electronically or face-to-face. A caveat to this: a high proportion of plots showed contact with a terror group between 2014 and 2016. However, there was a significant decrease in 2017. Beginning of a trend, or an anomaly? (6/n)
Possibly the most striking finding: nearly 75% of plotters carry out, or have their plans thwarted, within two years of arrival in Europe. Over half within the first 12 months. (7/n)
The longest time between an individual arriving in Europe and eventually committing an attack was 13 years. However, that was a real rarity.
I also thought it would be interesting to try and figure out where these guys were getting radicalized. This is an imperfect science, but the data showed that radicalization is both a local and foreign phenomenon. (9/n)
Of the 32 plots, 12 (37.5 percent) could be characterized as local radicalization plots, in that the refugees or asylum seekers appeared to have begun to immerse themselves in violent Islamist ideology once they were in Europe. (10/n)
Ten (31.3 percent) involved individuals or cells entirely radicalized abroad. In five plots, there was a mix (15.6 percent). (11/n)
When breaking this data down by individual rather than by plot, a different picture seems to emerge. 26 seemingly already held radical ideology prior to arrival in Europe. Slightly fewer (13 people) became radicalized once in Europe. With five cases, it was unclear. (12/n)
However…there is another caveat. Individuals or cells who were already radicalized before arriving in Europe were prevalent between 2014 and fall 2016. (13/n)
However, from November 2016, there was only one example of a plot involving someone already seemingly radicalized before coming to Europe. So there was a shift to plots carried out by those who were radicalized in Europe itself at the latter part of the time period studied.(14/n)
There is a lot more in the report, including recommendations, here: heritage.org/terrorism/repo…. Or you can read some of the media coverage here. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5… (15/n)
I also know @Sam_J_Mullins is looking at this subject. It will be great to see his research and interesting to note any overlap/divergences. (16/n)
That's all. Thanks for reading!
