Some thoughts on Trump's slapdash executive order on family separation. First, despite their tough talk, the notion that they're setting up a showdown with a judge is comical. 1/
A settlement in a 1997 case prohibits the government from keeping children in detention for more than 20 days. The Executive Order instructs DOJ to try to modify the settlement to allow longer detention of children who are accompanied by a parent. 2/ whitehouse.gov/presidential-a… 
Sessons’ immigration aide thinks they’re putting a ton of pressure on Judge Dolly Gee, who will hear the case. 3/ nytimes.com/2018/06/20/us/…
But he didn’t mention that the Obama administration tried the same thing in 2015 and failed – Judge Gee said that a deal’s a deal, and there’s no basis to modify it. 4/ graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/u…
On appeal, the Ninth Circuit agreed. 5/ cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opin…
Nothing has changed since 2015 and there’s no reason to expect a different result. Trump can try his luck with SCOTUS, but it will be a very uphill battle. The specific legal issue isn’t about immigrants’ rights but rather when the government can wriggle its way out of a deal. 6/
Congress, however, can overturn the Flores settlement if it chooses. This is presumably why the EO is titled “Affording Congress an Opportunity to Address Family Separation.” 7/
Indeed, DHS Secretary Nielsen threatened that family separations could resume if Congress doesn’t act. 8/
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Color me skeptical that they would follow through on that threat, given the pummeling they took for the policy. More likely they’ll sit tight and blame the courts and Congress. 9/
Another odd issue: the Executive Order says that they’ll still prosecute families, but will keep them together. How? As my former Obama colleague @FrescoLeon notes, the courts and the family holding facilities aren’t near each other. 10/
The Trump folks should explore other paths: e.g., reopen ICE’s innovative Family Case Management Program, which provides a humane alternative to incarceration that may work better than other such programs at ensuring families show up to case hearings. 11/ theatlantic.com/news/archive/2…
Finally, the ultimate 2018 move would be for Trump to fire Sessions – thus achieving Trump’s lifelong goal -- and pretend it's for Sessions starting this family-separation mess rather than for his Russia recusal. 11/end
