Thread by @Usherwood

A thread on Art.50, pain and BATNAs

1/

(This is prompted by a chat today w @alanjrenwick that got me thinking about this a bit differently)

2/

As we've much discussed, everyone in Art.50 wants a deal, because the costs of not getting one are very high

3/

That's the BATNA bit (Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement). Basically, what you can hope for if you can't reach a deal

4/

However, Art.50 is unusual in its structure, as I've noted before.

1) the default is no-deal
2) all outcomes result in a global cost

5/

That means that any deal will still have costs. You can only avoid some of the costs of no-deal by having a deal

6/

The problem for negotiators on all sides is that there's no cost-free, benefit-possessing outcome, so they have to consider what deal is going to cause least pain to their constituents

7/

And recall that you don't have the default of the status quo if you don't agree, as normally happens

8/

So no outcome is pain-free and no outcome lacks costs

9/

The easiest way to think about this is that Brexit is a negative-sum exercise.

Costs will be incurred, so main decisions are about who carries them (And what they'll do when they find out)

10/

So just because no-deal is really bad, doesn't make any deal any easier

/end