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Peter Foster @pmdfoster
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Is Theresa finally spoiling for a #Brexit fight? Might she finally be about to force clarity? No 10 sources talking tough to ⁦@Jack_Blanchard_⁩ playbook on the #Chequers summit.
Where @FraserNelson reckons the Brexit bunch will bottle it. Just like always. Makes you wonder why the wasted months in forcing a viable position? Let’s see if May folds too? She has to leave the #Chequers summit with something EU can look at.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
But keep an eye out for @MichelBarnier speech this AM. Fears on U.K. side he may pre-emptively stomp on the May plan. Understand it took an absolute kicking at Article 50 working group yesterday. Commission stiffening spines in case U.K. offer tempts?
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More from @pmdfoster see all

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Right. Some quick takeaways on the 'reassurance to the DUP' document that's just been published by UKG here 1/Thread

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
1. If the backstop kicks in, UKG will ensure GB doesn't diverge to minimise regulatory 'gap' over Irish Sea.

This fits what @DLidington said before Xmas /2
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@DLidington It's not a magic bullet, but officials say it will "chisel right down" the number of additional checks needed, until such time as the backstop is replaced. /2
Read 12 tweets
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The DUP still playing hardball...despite efforts by UK Govt to do more to assuage fears raised by backstop.

But will be interesting barometer of where we are, to see how hard DUP reaction is to new paper to be published later this AM. /1
What is this? Well, per @SkyNews @DLidington will set out a series of measures that is intended to address fears raised by the Withdrawal Agreement that Northern Ireland is going to be treated very differently. See below. /2
@SkyNews @DLidington What's the problem here? Well go back to December 2017 and the Joint Report on Brexit, which was agreed after a DUP walkout forced May to retreat.

The DUP won an extra Para (50) which promised "unfettered" trade between NI and GB internal markets "in all circumstances" /3
Read 7 tweets
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So seems point 1 is an extension/elucidation of what @DLidington told #r4today on Dec 14.

FWIW am told by Brussels sources this is now focus of UK 'ask' on reassurances/ clarifications. To set clear aspiration date for trade deal to avoid backstop /1

@DLidington Which as @DavidHenigUK quickly pointed out is, to put it mildly, ambitious. /2

@DLidington @DavidHenigUK This is not least because even if you think a 'quick and dirty' deal is doable on some aspects (you hear some discussion of this) the UK would STILL need to know what it wanted.

And as the Political Declaration makes painfully clear, it doesn't know. Or cannot agree rather. /3
Read 20 tweets

Related threads

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1) Options available on #Brexit - thread
To try to help out with understanding I'm going to go for the simplest explanation I can of the options in front of the country re A50, Deals available etc based on my understanding

Here goes
2) briefly to begin with, there are 3 #Brexit options & 2 Article 50 options
Brexit options:
- No deal
- May's deal
- Remain

Article 50
- Revoke A50
- Delay A50

3 routes to Remain
- GE with a Labour Remain ticket
- 2nd Ref with a Remain option
- Revoke A50 via vote in HoP
3) Revoke A50
can be revoked by the UK alone, without agreement of the EU & we go back to the *exact* same deal we have now (rebate, no Euro etc)

However it must be a revoke in "good faith", we revoke because we are staying indefinitely, not as a pause whilst we have a rethink
Read 22 tweets
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Interesting bits from the Prime Minister’s #Brexit letter …bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…. The absolute primacy of ending free movement as the driver of the Referendum result- perhaps the one Leave argument she personally buys..
But ending FOM for EU citizens also removes it from UK citizens. PM does not mention that.
Second the stress on the benefits of ending vast annual payments.. But she knows that direct savings will not be huge as we take over programmes (CAP, replacement structural funds), incur costs of setting up own agencies
Read 21 tweets
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Having calmed down slightly I now realise John McDonnells position of a Deal/no deal #Brexit ref if they can't force a GE is unrealistic independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
1/ chequers shows there is unlikely to be a deal acceptable to the EU and the europhobes in the tory party #Brexit so its likely that no deal #Brexit is the only available #Brexit and therefore there is unlikely to be a choice of deal or no deal to start with
2/ if May does comeback with a deal it will need labour support to pass Labour would have to choose between backing it thus forgoing any chance of bringing down the government and thus the GE they say they want and angering the labour movement or voting it down
Read 8 tweets
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"#Brexit According to Google"

A poem inspired by Brian Bilston, constructed entirely from auto-completed searches on Google.

(Thread)
why is brexit good
why is brexit bad
why is brexit such a big deal
why is brexit mad
brexit is depressing me
brexit is making me ill
brexit is really all about China
brexit is not real
Read 7 tweets
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#Brexit rentrée today - what are the objectives for @dominraab and @OllyRobbins?
There are two main objectives for UK side
The most important is to stop @michelbarnier and European Commission totally killing off the Chequers white paper
Read 6 tweets
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1. There seems to be a lot of talk (both from the right & left) that Italy should/must/will leave the Euro.

Here's a little thread explaining why in any sane world this wont happen.
2. When Italy joined Euro its Govt debt service costs dropped from 12% to 5% of GDP and inflation fell. This is massive

Unlikely as the fact may strike you Italy benefitted greatly from this.

So why is there a problem & why the talk of leaving the euro?

theguardian.com/business/2018/…
3. Unfortunately like Greece, rather than using extra money liberatted from saving on debt service to slowly reduce its debts, Italy used this benefit to just borrow more cheaply.

This was relatively OK while world economy fine but when global crisis hit, Italy had no buffer.
Read 13 tweets

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