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Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Another good analysis.
My favourite bit from Chequers has been overlooked by everyone — the UK will apply to join the “Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)”.

Of course they are right to ignore it.

CPTPP map abc.net.au/news/2017-05-2… via @ABCNews

#BoneForFox Map of the Pacific Ocean and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) countries: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam, from ABC website
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Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
Read 20 tweets
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The "transitional arrangement" @bbaschuk refers to is, for now, the proposed Withdrawal Agreement (WA). It has provisions (129.1) specifically dealing with issues such as the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

What needs to be sorted out?

1/10

gov.uk/government/pub…
With the WA, the time to sort out the GPA is extended under the WA's transition period. Without the WA and no consensus in the WTO's Government Procurement Committee (the GPA signatories), UK preferential access is lost.

2/10

Source (paywalled): ….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL218600/New-s… Screenshot of paragraphs in the linked paywalled article quoting a WTO news story in which the UK and EU say the UK will be treated as an EU member until the end of the transition, and Article 129.1 plus footnote of the draft Withdrawal Agreement
The problem isn't the UK's offer (already accepted in principle) but legalese & procedure in the committee's draft decision

@bbaschuk shared a leaked US amendment to the EU's draft committee decision.

It is revealing. This first part is unamended.

3/10

drive.google.com/file/d/1pW-3P0… Screenshot of the top of page 2 of the US proposed draft decision, down to
Read 10 tweets
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This is nonsense.

No one does deals to "escape" the WTO. They remain WTO members, bound by the agreements they made in the WTO.

They get some better terms through free trade deals, but the WTO agreements remain the shell. Those free trade agreements reside within the WTO shell
One of the needs of Brexit (whatever the outcome) is to understand the implications for trade, including the WTO and its agreements.

It doesn't help if influential people like @mikegalsworthy & @Scientists4EU can't be bothered to find out what the WTO really is.

Pointers

1/3
Here's somewhere to start: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/12/17/wto…

2/3
Read 4 tweets

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A few initial thoughts on the government's updated impact assessments (assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…).

A summary of the scenarios – above the 0, the benefits of Brexit, including new trade deals. Below the 0, the costs of Brexit, such as barriers to trade (i.e. friction):
2. The gov't has chosen to model Chequers, which the EU has already rejected. This is mostly interesting because it shows that even in the "basket full of cherries fantasy scenario", the UK still ends up worse off that inside the EU.
3. The gov't doesn't seem to have modelled the backstop, or the UK staying in a customs union, as a scenario, which is odd given that it's more likely than the already rejected chequers
Read 10 tweets
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⚖️OpineVsLaw⚖️

Has Mueller Subpoenaed the President?

Can a sitting President be indicted or not?

LM: “Receipt: #Rosenstein very careful to say no inference can be drawn, in the past “some guy in the Dept. reached a legal opinion, and that’s what it is”

🎃🌟🎃🌟🎃🌟🎃🌟🎃🌟🎃
⚖️Opine2⚖️

US Senate probes Bannon: re contacts between Moscow & TeamTrump: PapaD & Carter Page

Human Rights Group Calls For probe Of Guiliani, Trump Money-Laundering Scheme

Prosecutors Asked to Probe Dutch Middlemen Washing Billions in Dirty Kazahk💰 for RE Deals in US & EU
⚖️Opine3⚖️

Lindsey Graham Received Campaign Donations ($800k) From Firm Tied To Russian Oligarch Len Blavatnik

The National Archives has released the famed—and long mysterious—Watergate “Road Map,” which Special Prosecutor sent to Congress in 1974.
Read 82 tweets
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Here's a thread on just some of the false claims Trump made in his 115-false-claim week. Again, the variety, audacity and sheer pointlessness of the lying and exaggerating is remarkable. thestar.com/news/world/ana…
"I was with U.S. Steel. They're opening up eight plants, eight." (U.S. Steel has announced major investments in two plants since Trump’s tariffs. Trump initially lied in June that they were opening six plants, then made it seven, then made it eight.)
“The farmers have been shut out from the EU...They've been shut out from Canada, as you know...They've been shut out, to a large extent, in China.” (Canada is the #1 export market for U.S. agriculture. China is #2. The EU is #5.)
Read 25 tweets
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UK Government meeting at Chequers agrees to [ask for] a “Free Trade Area for goods” including a “Facilitated Customs Arrangement” which would remove need for all border checks between UK and EU “as if a combined customs territory”
Chequers pix:
PM statement: “proposal establishes a common rule book for industrial goods and agricultural products”
Read 24 tweets
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good news: IJT has now made the paper I describe here, which comprehensively challenges the "80% desistance" myth, open access! medium.com/@juliaserano/r… #trans #LGBTQ #transgender #health #psychology #children
while I encourage you to read my essay about it, you can access that paper directly here: tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
and the second paper I described (by same set of authors) remains open access, and can be downloaded directly here: cfp.ca/content/64/5/3…
Read 3 tweets
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It is *not* a "total reversal" of his beliefs for *all* #Trans ppl. Your selective reading of the page is very telling and is representative of the mentality & intentions common among Trans "activists/allies." Altho this case and perhaps your own perspective are not nearly the1/x
most egregious, they are still problematic. Anyone reading your tweets would likely believe that Hakeem does not believe in psychotherapy for *any* #Trans ppl, which is clearly not the case. It is like those who ignore that @BlanchardPhD & @profjmb are among the strongest 2/x
advocates of #Trans ppl, including supporting their desire for SRS--in adulthood. In short, you/others frame the narrative in such a self-serving and selective/biased/distorted manner. For instance, 1) there is still *no* evidence that being "Trans" is "normal" in any way, 3/x
Read 21 tweets

Trending hashtags

#LGBTQ #VOTEBLUE #transgender #PAMFAM #EmbraceLove #trans #USA #Australia #EmbraceUnity #Chequers #virtuesignalling #PAM #NutShellReport #diverseshark #TransRightsAreHumanRights #Futurism #UK #BohoSquad #PromisesMadePromisesKept #ETTD #health #Traitorbacher #Brexitwhitepaper #antivaxxer #shark

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