It occurs to me that we may not be viewing Theresa May’s ‘Chequers Brexit’ crisis in quite the right way. And we may, just may, be underestimating her. So here’s a short ruminatory thread, just to see what you all think. 1/6
We assumed the PM’s Chequers Summit was about achieving unity, forcing her Cabinet Brexiteers into supporting her. And that the key metric of her success or failure was whether she stopped anyone resigning (which the “lose your ministerial car” stuff just fuelled further) 2/6
But what if the goal of Friday’s Chequers Summit was not unity, but division? What if the PM has decided, given the kind of Brexit she has concluded can be the only Brexit in town, that the current Tory Party cannot be the political coalition that can deliver it? 3/6
If you think the current Tory Party cannot deliver Brexit, you have to build a new coalition. Which means two things: 1) dividing the Brexiteers, to peel off the pragmatists from the purists; 2) dividing Labour, to peel off the pragmatists from the Corbynites. 4/6
Viewed in the way, today’s spectacular resignations are exactly what the PM needs. The Brexiteers are now infighting. And sending Gavin Barwell to appeal to Labour in the national interest is the start of phase 2. Labour needs to split for the PM’s strategy to have a chance. 5/6
Was this her real strategy? Am I giving her too much Machiavellian credit? Probably. But a Tory Brexit house divided could help her hugely. And given where she is, a soft Brexit coalition that splits both Labour MPs & Tory Brexiteers is her only choice. 6/6
