Let's step back and consider for a moment how an accidental 'no-deal' Brexit could occur:
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This is a very discrete category of outcome, when parties want to reach a deal, but somehow fail to
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I'm assuming no intentionality here, but as we go through it you might notice how factors could be used by those who desire 'no-deal'
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I'll start out by saying that an accidental 'no-deal' outcome really should never occur
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Partly that's because those involved should have properly prepared and acted to avoid it
Partly because of the specific timeline of Art.50 itself
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Partly because of the specific timeline of Art.50 itself
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That said, let's crack on
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The main area to consider is miscalculation, for the reason just outlined: you make assumptions, but sometimes you make false assumptions
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miscalculation covers a lot, so we need to break it down
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First element might be miscalculation of policy. That might include not having proper sight of all relevant issues and of options to solve them.
So, the thing no-one realised as a thing and the problem that's trickier to solve than anticipated
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So, the thing no-one realised as a thing and the problem that's trickier to solve than anticipated
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Second element might relate to your negotiating counterpart. You might not understand their needs properly and so fail to meet them
So, the thing I didn't realise was a thing for you
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So, the thing I didn't realise was a thing for you
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Third element is time. Things take longer than planned, at any stage.
So, it took an age to solve that thing, or they dragged their feet on ratifying
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So, it took an age to solve that thing, or they dragged their feet on ratifying
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Again, key point is that good planning should address all these and provide contingencies
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However, we should remember that Art.50 is bounded in important ways, most critically on time
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If time were unlimited, then none of this would matter, as you would identify the issue, go back and deal with it.
But that's difficult here
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But that's difficult here
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The current state of UK politics means that extensions to Art.50 are not viable for this gvt, so delays of any kind push resolution into an ever smaller time-frame
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Barring some extra time to wrap up a delayed ratification process, it's hard to see that changing before March 2019, so that raises the chances of a 'no-deal' outcome
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So, in sum, accidental 'no-deal' is much more likely to be a function of political choices than underlying negotiation mechanics
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