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tony nog #FBPE @tony_nog
, 20 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
1) #Brexit - reality check, only Remain makes sense for our long term sanity

It's time to state some home truths, this is a mess, and it's only going to get messier. Leaver or Remainer, it's time to step back and recognise there's only one way out - Remain
2) firstly, the reality is there is little love for #Brexit left in the country. Maybe 35% of the country max still actively crave it, the rest are either resigned to it or hate it.

"Just get on with it" is a brief step from "just make it go away"
3) even #BBCqt, that great fortress of Leave support, is changing. Hartley-Brewer's cry of "we've had a people's vote!" would normally guarantee a whoop & a cheer, not any more, it got barely a ripple

Faith in Brexit is draining away

4) but the lack of faith in #Brexit is inevitable. It doesn't matter what lies Remain may have told, Leave won and so Leave is now accountable

They promised Unicorns, a free, simple Brexit, and whilst a few can rewrite history the public will remember
5) it doesn't help of course that #Brexit leaders have revealed themselves to be buffoons. Arrogant, Ill informed, dim beyond belief, they wrecked #Brexit because *they didn't actually understand what it was*

6) as for Labour, their position on "we can get a better deal" is nonsense, and the public know that as well. Every time they try that line it just gets laughed at.
7) if we are sick of #Brexit, the EU27 certainly are. The idea that they will delay Article 50 for another GE just so Labour can reopen negotiations with a whole new set of redlines?

They have a deal, they are broadly happy with it, why would they possibly delay?
8) the reality is May's deal is *the* deal. There are no other deals available. And it is a terrible deal which pleases no-one but it is what it is. Talk of better deals that don't exist is somewhere between a fantasy and an outright lie.
9) so if this is *the* deal, and there's no majority for "no deal" anywhere, and we know that even Brexit leaders admit this deal is worse than remaining, what do we do?

Do we carry on? What happens if we do implement this deal?
10) well firstly we're implementing a deal that almost everyone hates. This was probably inevitable but that's the reality. It will be attacked by both sides from day 1

And it doesn't really solve anything. The trade agreement which follows will bring up all of the same issues
11) all the arguments we've been having about soft & hard brexit, in & out of CU, SM, FoM, will continue

For years

All the division we've had will worsen, the deal haters (pretty much all of us) will carry on whining

The ERG will keep sniping
12) and any issues that come up, any layoffs, downturns, underperformance will be tied to Brexit whether it's responsible or not.

What we have now, will continue for years
13) we know there are decent moderates who hope that if we can accept this WA deal then "things will be settled, we can move on"

They're kidding themselves. If we Brexit under this deal everyone will be unhappy
14) our 2 major parties will be seen as cowards & opportunists. It's probably a fair assumption but it won't help our democracy. They will be exposed as having let us down, playing games whilst one born again leaver and one historical one led both their parties to support Brexit
15) getting back to Remain is hard, but it was always the only answer, because no other answer will satisfy a majority of Leavers.

I wrote this over 2 years ago. It was true then & remains true now. No Brexit can sit between the various Leave camps…
16) Brexit hasn't failed because of the EU, or Remainers, or May, or treacherous Civil servants, it's because it could never be solved.

A meaningful brexit is too painful to get a majority in the country
A painless Brexit is too pointless to implement
17) if Leave had campaigned on "there'll be significant short term pain & disruption, and some job losses, but in 10 years we'll be in a better place" and won, then fair enough.

They didn't, so Brexit cannot be implemented because what was voted for doesn't exist
18) we can go around the houses, and our political leaders can carry on indulging themselves but in the end it comes down to a simple, logical, inevitable conclusion:
19) that conclusion is this

- No deal is not an option
- There are no better deals
- A GE solves nothing
- This deal is worse than being in the EU
- It solves nothing in the long term
- it prolongs the agony
- it's not good for the country

We need to remain
PS to @jeremycorbyn & @theresa_may
#PeoplesVote is out there & openly being discussed. Up until now the public believed Brexit was inevitable, but now they know it isn't

When they understand that you both conspired to stop a PV their reaction will be terrible
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