Thread by @MiddleEastGuy

Always great to be on @cnni with @rosemaryCNN Church.

Francona: #Syria would be insane to use chemical weapons in the assault on #Idlib governorate. Bashar al-Asad knows using chemical weapons will draw a military response from the United States, France and possibly the UK.

It’s hard to understand the absurdity, but it appears that as long as you only use barrel bombs, artillery, rockets, and missiles to kill, it is deemed almost acceptable, but cross that line and use chemicals, the ire of the world demands a military response. So why use them?

There is no military reason for the Syrians to use chemical weapons. With #Russia|n airpower, artillery, and rocket and missile strikes, combined with #Iran|ian and Hizballah support on the ground, the Syrian military has the required force to reassert control over Idlib.

The “battle of Idlib” will likely be the last major military operation in the Syrian civil war, but it's not the end of the crisis. After Idlib falls-and it will–we need to address the political situation. What of the Turkish-supported rebels in the ‘Afrin area north of Aleppo?

What of the US-supported mainly #Kurd|ish Syrian Democratic Forces (#SDF)?

Are they to be integrated into the Syrian Army? Not likely,

Will the Kurds be allowed some form of autonomy like their Iraqi cousins? Bashar says no, as does Turkey.

The US position? Hard to say.

#Turkey – you know, our #NATO ally(?) – wants all the Kurdish “militants” (I think he means the #SDF) to leave northern Syria. Hey @RT_Erdogan, they’re Syrians, where are they going to go?

Idlib is just the next step on the long road to putting Syria back together.
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