BREAKING: I have had some conversations about the ACA repeal vote and the Arizona Senate seat which I will attach as a thread here shortly.
Follow if interested.
Follow if interested.
On ACA repeal, everyone from Trump to Senate leaders have made it clear that as soon as they have the votes to repeal the ACA, they will do it.
As of a year ago, they had 49 votes for a repeal vote— one short with Pence as the tiebreaker. 2/
As of a year ago, they had 49 votes for a repeal vote— one short with Pence as the tiebreaker. 2/
Since then, two things have changed. The Republicans lost a repeal vote in Alabama and the anti-repeal side lost a no vote when John McCain passed away.
Doug Jones is a clear no vote. What about Arizona...? 3/
Doug Jones is a clear no vote. What about Arizona...? 3/
In Arizona, John Kyl, an old school reliable conservative, once in Senate leadership and known to respect Senate traditions, is filling the seat— supposedly only until January.
The appearance is that it is to cast a vote for Cavanaugh then be replaced w the new Congress. 4/
The appearance is that it is to cast a vote for Cavanaugh then be replaced w the new Congress. 4/
There is talk of a “parting shot” lame duck ACA repeal vote, particularly if the Republicans have lost the House.
How would Kyl vote? No one knows. But word is he would be likely to mirror the vote of Jeff Flake. He voted to repeal and likely would again. 5/
How would Kyl vote? No one knows. But word is he would be likely to mirror the vote of Jeff Flake. He voted to repeal and likely would again. 5/
If there is no lame duck vote, what happens? The thinking in AZ is that if @kyrstensinema beats McSally— someone who wants to protect pre-ex conditions, etc. vs. someone who wants to get rid of them quote vocally, McSally may get appointed to the seat. 6/
In the first scenario, repeal is still a vote short if everyone votes the same way.
In the second scenario, they are still a vote short but there are the potential for up to ~9 other seats to change hands— 6 currently held by Democrats. 7/
In the second scenario, they are still a vote short but there are the potential for up to ~9 other seats to change hands— 6 currently held by Democrats. 7/
The lame duck scenario is a simple one— will either Murkowski or Collins or both change their vote? Certainly an area of concern. But... 8/
The 2nd scenario is interesting. If the Ds don’t add 23 seats in the House, the chances of losing a Senate seat are greater. If Rs net just 1 seat, they don’t need Murk or Collins.
That means an early Jan repeal vote if Ds don’t take the House & at least hold in the Senate./10
That means an early Jan repeal vote if Ds don’t take the House & at least hold in the Senate./10
As the midterm elections go, so goes the repeal of the ACA.
And we will be likely sitting on a court decision pushed by Trump and Josh Hawley and friends to repeal it by the courts. /end
And we will be likely sitting on a court decision pushed by Trump and Josh Hawley and friends to repeal it by the courts. /end
