Thread by @jedshug

Democrats winning back the Senate in 2018 is possible. But people are overlooking how each of these 2018 races for taking back the Senate in 2021.
The 2020 Senate map is OK, but not great.
Every seat now brings control in 2020 a little closer. We need to work harder now. 1/

2/ Senate is 51 R-49 D now. To win back the Senate, the Dems have to hold 5 red states (WV, ND, MT, MO, IN) + FL, and flip NV and AZ. If Dems lose in any of those states, they need to replace it with @BetoORourke in TX or @PhilBredesen in TN.
I'm hopeful, but not optimistic. 2/

3/ The good news in 2020 is that the Dems are defending only one red state (Doug Jones/Alabama, don’t get your hopes up).
But there are only 2 blue states with GOP Senators in trouble (Collins-Maine, Gardner-Colorado).
Let’s assume that’s net +1 for Democrats...

4/ There are only 3 purple states with GOP incumbents: Tillis-NC, Ernst-Iowa, and McCain’s AZ seat. Each is possible, but not reliable even in a high-turnout presidential year.
We could be looking at gaining only 1 or 2 seats in 2020.
That’s why 2018 is doubly important.

5/ If you want a Democratic President to appoint any Justices (or judges) in 2021, we need to win Senate races in 2018.
That includes @Sen_JoeManchin and @PhilBredesen.
We have good reason to be frustrated with them, but we need them both. They will confirm Dem nominees.