I can't rebut the @JSchanzer piece (in @TheAtlantic ) on US-Saudi relations in the wake of the #KhashoggiMurder nearly as ably as @EmmaMAshford does, but wanted to add a thought. <thread>
2. For all the earnest thought given to Russian grand strategy in Syria, it’s the Assad regime that has driven Russian policy there since 2015, not Moscow. Assad knows what he wants, with some precision. Putin & his crowd don’t.
3. The Russians are after general, vague objectives — presence, prestige, etc. — & thus are easily manipulated by Russia’s Syrian client. There are similar aspects to the US-Saudi relationship. We know what Prince Fish wants from it — a blank check from Washington.
4. Whether what Riyadh seeks to do with that blank check makes any sense is something else again. But what does US want? A large part of it — even for self-described “realists” — is tied up in a vague desire to “confront” Iran. We need the Saudis for that, sure.
5. But what does "confronting Iran" mean? What’s the US objective? Is it most important to the US to “roll back” Iranian presence in Syria? Weaken Iranian allies (principally Hezbollah, but also political actors in Iraq)? Overthrow the mullahs in Tehran?
6. Or is "confronting Iran" merely about maintaining distance, for domestic political and personal reasons, from US policy during the Obama period? Because Washington cannot (or will not) define what it wants our relationship with Saudi Arabia to help us accomplish...
7...or decide which desirable objectives are either unattainable or unimportant, it is forever vulnerable to manipulation.
8. The Trump era adds to this an additional issue: the degree to which the current administration is compromised by Trump family business connections w/the Saudis. The temptation is to assume this just isn’t a factor, because it lacks precedent. That would be foolish.
9. I suggest a bottom line question: to whom is the US-Saudi relationship more important, us or them? If it’s us, Americans should know exactly why. If it’s them, Saudi action to repair the damage Riyadh has done to that relationship is required. [end]
